Thread by @TrentTelenko

@sw4811 >>Bellingcat said the Russian army was days from collapse... weeks ago.

Bellingcat was making a straight line projection at then current rates of loss.

Russia changes plans (image) to reduce them.

The rate of loss vs rate of replacement is the most important factor in a
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@sw4811 ...military collapse.

Russia still has enough reserve material & conscripts to fill out casualties in worn down BTG to make smaller limited offensives.

The thing the military pros on Twitter are talking about is the 'culminating point' when this is no longer the case.
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@sw4811 The Ukrainian General Staff keeps giving up ground in Donbas to maintain their forces while maxing out Russian losses.

Think of it as a Ukrainian 'shaping operation" to bring forward the Russian 'culminating point.'
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@sw4811 Ukraine's senior military are fighting a long war such that they bleed out the best Russia has while growing its own forces with Western military aid.

They are going for a "Lanchester square collapse" of the Russian Army.

Pres. Zelensky is doing a very good job on the

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@sw4811 ...political side to feed the Ukrainian military the Western material to go with Ukraine's total war mobilization of manpower to support this long war strategy.

Russia cannot win a military victory.

Only the Ukrainian people will decide when they are beaten, and Bucha taught
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@sw4811 ...them that defeat is the next Holodomor, AKA genocide.

So they are in it for the long haul. Their war aimes are the recapture of the Pre-2014 borders, the return of their kidnapped people & Putin out of power.
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@sw4811 The Russo-Ukrainian War will continue until the Ukrainian people admit defeat or their war aims are fulfilled.

The Russian Army will break first.
7/End

@sw4811 @threadreaderapp unroll please