Thread by @jmkorhonen

So, an update on Finland's journey toward NATO. As you probably know, Finland's and Sweden's NATO applications are currently blocked by Turkey's Erdogan in an obvious game to extract whatever value he can. What happens next?

Negotiations are ongoing, but Erdogan is simply demanding things that the Finnish government probably could not legally promise. We run a rule of law country here, and - for example - extraditing Erdogan's political opponents because of trumped-up charges isn't happening. THREAD

While the Finnish government intersperses its silence with cautious optimism, it seems that one of the main risks of applying to NATO has been realized: Finland is being left uncomfortably in limbo, having declared against the Kremlin but not being let inside the Article 5. 2/

In other situations, this could be a serious problem, perhaps inviting a pre-emptive attack. However, right now the Russian military is being torn apart by the Ukrainians, to the extent that they've been forced to re-activate half a century old T-62 tanks from the reserves. 3/

Losses in junior leadership alone are decimating the Russian military capability and will cause problems for years to come. Combined with sanctions that greatly complicate any efforts to replenish the depleted supplies of modern weapons, the Russian threat is greatly reduced. 4/

At the same time, the Western allies, particularly Great Britain, have issued strongly worded statements about supporting Finland in case military help is needed. They are not as good guarantees as Article 5, but they are better than anything Finland has ever gotten. 5/

So at least for as long as the war in Ukraine continues to eat up men and material, Finland is not in any pressing hurry for NATO. That said, the sooner Finland could leave this limbo, the better. 6/

One of the reasons why I for instance turned to support NATO membership now has been my long-standing understanding that the best time to join would be when the Russian military is taking a beating elsewhere. But eventually, the war in Ukraine will wind down. 7/

We always suspected that Hungary or Turkey would cause problems, but we trusted too much Erdogan's earlier statement that Finland's membership would not be a problem.

Some Turkey experts are now saying that Turkey could block Finland and Sweden's NATO membership for years. 8/

While many of those from the Finnish right who used to shriek about Finlandization are now bending over backwards to aid and abet Erdogan, it seems unclear to me whether even a right-wing government (that could come to power next year) could actually satisfy his demands. 9/

Meanwhile, resentment against Turkey is growing. There are popular calls to boycott Turkey and Turkish products, and increasingly, Finns are saying that tinpot dictators like Erdogan should go screw themselves. We'll build a better alliance, with blackjack, and hookers. /s 10/

If Turkish diplomats and intelligence failed to convey to Erdogan that Finns really do not respond well to threats, then they've done a big mistake.

Finns remember their friends and enemies. And Finns always pay their debts. 11/

I'm already seeing increased support for the Kurds and the PKK among Finns. If this goes on, Erdogan's threats may backfire just like Putin's threats did.

12/

Since it seems to me obvious that Turkey cannot veto Finland and Sweden forever - the United States for instance has quite a bit of credibility at stake right now - it seems unclear to me what Turkey could win here in the long term. But that is probably not Erdogan's concern. 13/

Meanwhile, we keep on doing what we've been doing: maintaining and improving our own defense capabilities. The military budget has already been increased, new purchases are being made, and the popular willingness to defend Finland even against all odds is at all time high. 14/

We watch very carefully what is happening in Ukraine, whose people are defending the cause of freedom for us all, and we are confident that for years, what remains of the Russian military after Ukrainians are done with it can at most bleed on us. 15/

Eventually, that could change, and when the Russian military is again a threat, we should be in the alliance. I believe that is certainly going to happen, but in the meantime, Turkey may burn a lot of goodwill for very little actual gain. Their loss. 16/16

PS. It may be difficult for foreign readers to understand just how big an insult Erdogan made when he said Finland’s membership would not be a problem. In Finland, treachery like this has been among the leading causes of the acute knife in the lungs syndrome.