Stephen Barlow Profile picture
Jun 3, 2022 8 tweets 2 min read Read on X
People often ask what I mean by system change re: the climate and ecological crisis. It is very simple. I mean a full shift to a truly sustainable society/economy. This means changing more or less every convention of our modern society.
Sustainable means what it says. A society and economy in balance with the ecological carrying capacity of the Earth. Essentially that means no unsustainable trends, where our impact on the natural systems of the world is growing.
You see, in ecological terms, if there is a component, where it's impact on natural systems is constantly growing. Eventually it will have catastrophic effects, impacting also on the component driving it i.e. human society.
Lots of natural components have growing impacts. Let's say an exploding population of rodents. But this is eventually counteracted, by a sudden fall in the population of that rodent. Often, it produces a cycle or rise and fall.
Humans appear to have got out of this cycle and effect, by using innovation to get around what would cause that contraction in that growth. For instance, the use of fertilisers and pesticides.
But this is at the cost of destroying other ecosystem components and biodiversity, which in a long loop, will eventually have serious impacts on us, that we can't innovate our way out of.
There is no simple recipe for creating a sustainable society economy. However, if we don't want our population, our civilization, our society and economy to crash, it is essential.
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More from @SteB777

Dec 18
This is a very good summary, of the threat to our food security, posed by the climate crisis, with a few ecological caveats I need to explain. However, it supports all my threads about this.

1/🧵theguardian.com/environment/ng…
The big caveat from an ecological perspective is this. Most of these projections, are based on average yields, which is a standard academic approach. However, we need to acquaint ourselves with the law of the ecological minimum, or the limiting factor.
2/
Whilst this is often called Leibig's law or the law of the minimum, dating from agricultural science in the 19th Century. However, I don't want to get into the academic history of this concept, but rather I want to explain what it means for us in practice.

3/en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liebig%27…
Read 17 tweets
Dec 18
I'm somewhat baffled about the strategy of not only Donald Trump, but the populist right in general, and billionaires. They have taken in people, by making false promises and claims, which will soon be revealed for the lies they are. Climate change denial is a good example.
1/🧵
Climate change is real and happening, the scientific evidence proves it. Yes, if you got a big platform, and a lot of money, you can get away with dishonestly, denying that climate change is happening, because of 2 factors.
2/
These 2 factors are:

1) There is variability in weather from year to year, which can temporarily mask a changing climate.

2) The changes in climate, are quite subtle at the moment, and won't be noticed by those not paying much attention. But soon they will be noticeable.
3/
Read 23 tweets
Dec 17
'There is a growing risk that Russia could attack the UK, and the nation's "sons and daughters" need to be ready to fight, the head of Britain's armed forces has said.'

Our leadership, has a clear case of brain rot, I mean they are totally unhinged. The idea of fighting a war with Russia, is totally insane.

1/🧵news.sky.com/story/uks-sons…
The insanity of this rhetoric, is that Russia has a massive stockpile of nuclear weapons, so if Europe were to fight some sort of war with Russia, there would be a very high probability of it going nuclear, and mutually assured destruction of both Europe and Russia.
2/
I used to have some sort of respect for the military, even though I am very anti-war, just seeing them as practical people. But if they are only slightly serious about the rhetoric, the military are coming out with, these are dangerously irrational people.
3/
Read 20 tweets
Dec 15
It's now clear what lay behind the Liverpool FC parade tragedy. It was nothing but a case of road rage, and over-entitlement, by a narcissistic driver, who thinks everything is about them.

I write this as a lifelong cyclist, who has long experienced this aggressive and threatening behaviour.

1/🧵theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/d…
A minority of drivers, turn into an over-entitled monster, when they get behind the wheel of a car, acting aggressively to other road users. God forbid if you get in their way, or slow their journey by even a second. They use their car as a weapon, with which to intimidate others.

I repeat, this is a small, but significant minority.
2/
This man stopped the public learning what lay behind this tragedy, by making out he had a defence, was going to plead not guilty, and had panicked because he was threatened, until his late guilty plea.
3/
Read 11 tweets
Dec 15
Our modern culture, has totally lost the plot. We have lost all perspective in the hierarchy, of serious risks to our societies and civilization. The defining issue, should be the climate and ecological crisis. as this will determine everything in the near future.

I had been meaning to write this thread for some time, but this very confused article about UBI, Universal Basic Income, and AI, prompted me to write it now.

"Maybe we can keep humanity alive via redistribution. Machines that don’t require workers could produce enormous amounts of output, so it might be easy to raise the money for the UBIs of the future."

In this vision of the future, AI will put most people out of work, and we will need some way of providing income to those who no longer have jobs.

It's what I call, a mainstream economist view, where economists imagine the future as being a continuation of the American, and Western economy, as if the climate and ecological crisis, does not exist.

This is because all but a handful of enlightened economists, have got absolutely no grasp of what the climate and ecological crisis means for us, as they are totally lacking in any relevant knowledge about this.
theguardian.com/business/2025/…
1/🧵
“There are now no non-radical futures. The choice is between immediate and profound social change or waiting a little longer for chaotic and violent social change. In 2023 the window for this choice is rapidly closing.” Professor Kevin Anderson, leading climate scientist @KevinClimate

I keep using this quote from Prof Kevin Anderson, because it perfectly sums up this situation, and he is a leading climate scientist.

I have my own framing of this situation, which is much older, and wider, but I am not a highly published leading climate scientist, so I am saying, don't take my word for it, listen to this.

The whole problem, and this is the real crisis, not say anthropogenic climate change ACC itself, is that there is profound denial about what this, and several degrees Centigrade of warming, actually means for us.

Even many climate scientists, cannot get their head around what this means. They cannot grasp that the economic model, industrial capitalism, or whatever you want to call it, and the societies and economies it gave rise to, are over. What we have done, makes the future, radically different, no matter what route we chose.
bellacaledonia.org.uk/2023/04/18/no-…
2/
The future that no longer exists, is the financial economy, the financial markets, big business, billionaires and oligarchs, big consumer society. It's over. Sure, we can try carrying on with it and big business. Maybe the illusion that this can continue, could carry on for a couple more decades, and I am being very optimist here. But I can absolutely guarantee, that even if we get 15-20 years into the future, in one piece, that by then, no one will think it can last much longer.

As @KevinClimate says, either we radically change our societies now, or we will have this radically change, imposed on us, when Business as Usual BaU, implodes.
3/
Read 10 tweets
Dec 12
Please, can we get something clear. The recovery of the Otter in the UK, especially England is nothing to do with "intensive conservation work", and "improving water quality". I'm sure lots of conservation bodies are willing to take credit for it, for PR. Water quality in general is much worse in UK rivers, not better.

This is terrible communication strategy, leading to anglers falsely blaming conservationists for re-introducing Otters, as they now prey on stocked Carp.

The recovery of Otters, is almost certainly, purely down to the banning of the organochlorine pesticides, especially dieldrin and aldrin, used as seed coatings.

I am creating this short thread, for public information, because there is so much rubbish repeated about this, causing massive misunderstanding about this issue.

You will have to rely on my synthesis and understanding of this, as you will only find glimpses of insight in the literature. However, I have followed this matter since the 1970s, and I have the ecological knowledge and fishery knowledge to explain this.
theguardian.com/environment/20…
1/🧵
These organochlorines, accumulate in Otters through a process called biomagnification and bioaccumulation. As fish eaters, eating fish, with moderate levels in them, these were magnified to much greater levels in the Otters, accumulating in their fatty, (adipose) tissues. Meaning they disappeared from most English rivers.

As the levels of these compounds, dropped after they were banned, it allowed Otters to recover, as they were no longer being poisoned by eating fish. The Otters simply came from strongholds in Wales and Scotland, where there were lower levels of these chemicals.

Yes, attempts were made to re-introduce Otters, but these failed for several factors. The dog Otters were killed on roads, and the pesticide levels were still too high. So the vast majority of Otters now found in England, came from remaining populations in Scotland, Wales and the West Country, naturally re-populating English rivers, none of it with assistance from conservationists.
mammal.org.uk/blog/2022/02/o…
2/
In the post-war period, when Otters went into serious decline due to pesticide poisoning, Carp angling took off (that is fishing for Carp (Cyprinus carpio), a non-native species, but one introduced a long time ago). I am a former Carp angler, albeit from long ago, so I'm well qualified to comment on this.

As Carp angling took off in the 1990s onwards, there was a big increase in commercial Carp fisheries, stocking very large, and very expensive specimen Carp. Predation by Otters was never a problem, when Otters had become more or less extinct in England. Very large specimen Carp, could cost tens of thousands of pounds. This is because they are always returned by anglers, and can live for many decades, perhaps 50 years or more.

Commercial fisheries and syndicates stocked these very expensive specimen sized Carp as it attracted paying anglers.

Once Otters reappeared, they started catching and eating these easily targeted large carp, which could weigh in excess of 40lbs. Meaning the owners of these commercial fisheries suffered financial loss, and with Carp angling now being popular, a lot of angry anglers, who falsely blamed conservationists for re-introducing Otters, which they didn't. But they were happy to take the credit.
3/
Read 7 tweets

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