I missed this yesterday regards Ukraine's sustained casualty loss rates. 👇
This will be a historical casualty loss rate versus current Ukrainian mobilization thread🧵
1/
This will be a historical casualty loss rate versus current Ukrainian mobilization thread🧵
1/
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1532058783622778881
Ukraine has taken between 4,300 & 6,000 KIA & ~25,000 WIA based on the retweeted @RALee85 thread.
In 20th century mechanized warfare, historically, you see one dead out of five casualties.
Of the wounded, 50% are lost for the war as combatants. Some will be available
2/
In 20th century mechanized warfare, historically, you see one dead out of five casualties.
Of the wounded, 50% are lost for the war as combatants. Some will be available
2/
...for light clerical/logistical work that always sucks away manpower from the front. That is 12,500 Ukrainian soldiers.
Of the other 12,500 wounded, those who are 'lightly wounded' and can still fight do so until blood loss or infection make them "I can no longer fight
3/
Of the other 12,500 wounded, those who are 'lightly wounded' and can still fight do so until blood loss or infection make them "I can no longer fight
3/
... wounded."
That is, "lightly wounded" generally is _NOT_ a flesh wound.
It is debilitating can't fight anymore wounded, because battle buddies. It's the way soldiers in combat roll.
4/
That is, "lightly wounded" generally is _NOT_ a flesh wound.
It is debilitating can't fight anymore wounded, because battle buddies. It's the way soldiers in combat roll.
4/
The worst of the 'wounded & return to duty' take six months to get back to combat.
The rest are a spectrum of a few days, to weeks, to several months.
Additionally, most of what WW2 referred to as "neuropsychiatric casualties" were anything but.
5/
The rest are a spectrum of a few days, to weeks, to several months.
Additionally, most of what WW2 referred to as "neuropsychiatric casualties" were anything but.
5/
Much of what was called "shell shock" in WW1 and PTSD today has been identified by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) since the 2005-2007 Iraqi IED campaign as organic brain dysfunction via closed head traumatic brain injury.
Impact & explosive concussion damages the jellyware.
6/
Impact & explosive concussion damages the jellyware.
6/
It is not clear how Ukraine & Russia are counting or treating TBI wounded soldiers.
During 1945 artillery heavy combat at Okinawa saw 9/10 neuropsychiatric casualties returned to combat after 24 hours.
A further 1/10 returned to combat after 10 days.
The remaining
7/
During 1945 artillery heavy combat at Okinawa saw 9/10 neuropsychiatric casualties returned to combat after 24 hours.
A further 1/10 returned to combat after 10 days.
The remaining
7/
...tenth was split between between non-combat duties on Okinawa and evacuation for long term hospitalization.
No information has been released by either Ukraine or Russia on it's PTSD/TBI war wounded.
8/
No information has been released by either Ukraine or Russia on it's PTSD/TBI war wounded.
8/
There is much less available information Russian casualties. Equipment wise they have been losing 2/3 of a battalion tactical group (BTG) worth of vehicles a day on average.
The Russian ratio of KIA to WIA was 1 to 1.6 per Belarus civilian medical data in Feb-March 2022.
9/
The Russian ratio of KIA to WIA was 1 to 1.6 per Belarus civilian medical data in Feb-March 2022.
9/
If you take the 31 May 2022 Ukrainian KIA claim for Russian troops of 30,500 and multiply by 1.6 the Belarus ratio you get 48,800 wounded for a total of 79,300 Russian battle casualties as of that date.
Russian PTSD/TBI wounded are some number on top of 79,300.
10/
Russian PTSD/TBI wounded are some number on top of 79,300.
10/
Please carefully note that Ukraine treats Russian Army, LNR, DNR, Russian National Guard, FSB, Wagner Group & foreign mercs all as "Russian."
Ukraine is maintaining a 5 to 1 kill ratio in terms of battle deaths & a 2 to 1 ratio advantage in terms of battle wounds inflicted.
11/
Ukraine is maintaining a 5 to 1 kill ratio in terms of battle deaths & a 2 to 1 ratio advantage in terms of battle wounds inflicted.
11/
Those realities are why the LNR & DNR have been forcibly conscripting 40-50 year old men in occupied Luhansk & Donetsk and anyone they can impress in places like Mariupol.
12/
12/
Right now the Ukrainian loss rate is lower than its rate of mobilization. The Ukrainians are on track to a million people under arms by no later than the end of July with many/most of them returning combat veterans of six conscript classes in the previous 8-years of fighting.
13/
13/
This means Ukraine can turn donated/captured ex-Soviet equipment into new combat units immediately via using existing units as cadre with returning veterans as fillers to generate new formations.
14/
14/
The issue for Ukraine is getting enough heavy equipment, artillery and fighting vehicles to arm the newly mobilized manpower. The hand me down ex-Soviet war material from East European NATO nations are less than Ukraine has lost.
This is balanced by captured
15/
This is balanced by captured
15/
...Russian AFV's, of which Ukraine has captured more tanks than it has lost. (See @oryxspioenkop posts)
Some of the captured Russian tanks/BMP/BTR are immediately usable, but most will need some amount of refit. Ukraine's Kharkiv, Kyiv, and other AFV rebuild depots have
16/
Some of the captured Russian tanks/BMP/BTR are immediately usable, but most will need some amount of refit. Ukraine's Kharkiv, Kyiv, and other AFV rebuild depots have
16/
...been heavily attacked by Russian artillery & airpower.
NATO East European AFV rebuild depots have stepped in to fill the vacuum and are doing the work with EU funds.
17/
NATO East European AFV rebuild depots have stepped in to fill the vacuum and are doing the work with EU funds.
17/
Reports on Twitter strongly point to Ukraine being able to turn new NATO kit into combat power very quickly.
Ukraine is in a much better position to sustain a multi-year war than Russia. It has an unlimited line of credit with the West for arms and an utterly
18/
Ukraine is in a much better position to sustain a multi-year war than Russia. It has an unlimited line of credit with the West for arms and an utterly
18/
...committed population.
Russia has neither.
And the Ukraine General Staff announced a goal of 1.5 million armed Ukrainian by early 2023.
18/End
Russia has neither.
And the Ukraine General Staff announced a goal of 1.5 million armed Ukrainian by early 2023.
18/End
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
