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Jun 3 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Russian Army culminating point reached?👇

1/
More reports of same👇

2/
And Putin's military commander in chief in Ukraine just got canned?👇

3/
If Ukraine has Russia on the back foot in #Severodonetsk. Russia is not going to overrun the rest of Luhansk in 2 weeks.

It isn't the 1st time Western Intelligence has underestimated Ukraine.

Someone at the UK MoD has a bit of egg on their face👇
4/
And now a map showing the just recaptured by Ukraine portions of #Severodonetsk.

If Ukraine can take back territory from the focal point of a 25 BTG Russian Army offensive.

All Ukraine is up for grabs, folks.
5/
Russian Army culminating point, reached.

6/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 5
I've gotten some push back on my last two casualties in the Russo-Ukrainian War threads.

So, I'm going to drop some photo clips in this 🧵from on-line WW2 casualty documents that were background to the previous casualty posts.

They will illuminate who is dying in this war.
1/
When I referenced Trevor Dupuy in the previous tweets. It was due to the fact I backtracked to WW2 casualty reports to validate Dupuy's source data so I could trust it.

There were a lot of casualty reports in WW2, but they had the same general pattern for battle casualties.

2/
When it comes to non-battle casualties, the WW2 reports get a lot flakier.

Let's start with the 1945 Okinawa Campaign and specifically with issues of neuropsychiatric casualties

3/
Read 22 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 4
There is a lot to unpack from this video & for the purposes of this thread. 🧵 The assumption is we are looking at a timely #Severodonetsk counterattack video.

Short form:
The Russian Army has run out of trained infantry, which is what "Culminating Point" means.
1/
Ukraine has inflicted on the order of 79,000 Russian KIA & WIA to date.

Of the 190,000 Russian troops that invaded only between 10% & 20% are dismounted infantry, most likely on the lower end due to Russian "Ghost Troops" corruption.

What is 10% of 190,000?

2/
It's 19,000, and 20% is 38,000.

Russia has not only burned through all its infantry. It has burned through all the LNR infantry as well.

Which is why bolt-action rifle armed DNR troops were sent to both Mariupol and now Severodonetsk in Luhansk. They & the Chechen

3/
Read 16 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 3
I missed this yesterday regards Ukraine's sustained casualty loss rates. 👇

This will be a historical casualty loss rate versus current Ukrainian mobilization thread🧵

1/
Ukraine has taken between 4,300 & 6,000 KIA & ~25,000 WIA based on the retweeted @RALee85 thread.

In 20th century mechanized warfare, historically, you see one dead out of five casualties.

Of the wounded, 50% are lost for the war as combatants. Some will be available

2/
...for light clerical/logistical work that always sucks away manpower from the front. That is 12,500 Ukrainian soldiers.

Of the other 12,500 wounded, those who are 'lightly wounded' and can still fight do so until blood loss or infection make them "I can no longer fight
3/
Read 19 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 3
@NekhayShchastyt The speed with which a modern railway bridge can be repaid is much faster than WW2 or Korea due to the existence of major prefabricated concrete structures.

See my thread here:

@NekhayShchastyt And in particular the photos of this tweet:

2/
@NekhayShchastyt Russia's anti-railway campaign is failing in large part because Ukraine has large concrete structure vendors because it isn't a kleptocracy like Russia.

So there are a lot of concrete structures available to patch bridges & other rail infrastructure which Russia lacks.
3/
Read 7 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 2
@sw4811 >>Bellingcat said the Russian army was days from collapse... weeks ago.

Bellingcat was making a straight line projection at then current rates of loss.

Russia changes plans (image) to reduce them.

The rate of loss vs rate of replacement is the most important factor in a
1/
@sw4811 ...military collapse.

Russia still has enough reserve material & conscripts to fill out casualties in worn down BTG to make smaller limited offensives.

The thing the military pros on Twitter are talking about is the 'culminating point' when this is no longer the case.
2/
@sw4811 The Ukrainian General Staff keeps giving up ground in Donbas to maintain their forces while maxing out Russian losses.

Think of it as a Ukrainian 'shaping operation" to bring forward the Russian 'culminating point.'
3/
Read 8 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 2
Rail logistics thread 🧵

You cannot completely shut down rail traffic with stand-off missiles. The repairs are usually cheaper than the missiles used to make the rail cuts.👇

Russia's anti-rail campaign is strategically bizarre if we compare its dozens of strikes against
1/6
...Operation Strangle in Korea where the sortie count reached 87,552 interdiction sorties and the CHICOMs were still able to move materiel.

It took 20K heavy bomber sorties, carpet bombing rail yards over 2 months in Winter/Spring 1945, to stop Nazi German rail traffic👇
2/6
The USAAF participation in the 14-15 Feb 1945 firebombing of Dresden was a pair of those railway marshalling yard raids.

Today's USAF would be hard pressed to crash Ukraine's rail system with JDAMs like it did in WW2 w/the Nazi's.

Mechanized engineering has improved so much
3/6
Read 6 tweets

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