Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

An early weekend update, building on this tweet thread of yesterday, this morning's sitrep from @GeneralStaffUA does have more elements of confidence on the situation stabilizing in the Donbas, that seem noteworthy (at least to me).

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1532660741244964866

Here is a link to the tweet--actually had to use a translator as the English link actually goes to a Ukrainian text. Still the translator seems to do well.

https://twitter.com/GeneralStaffUA/status/1532942282210611200?s=20&t=0xGpKH9F89akbVJ1DMHr0g

When it comes to the different elements of the Donbas fighting. lots of Russian ranged attacks, no successes in advancing, in fact Ukrainians claiming alot of rebuffs. Ukrainians make a point to say that they are still fighting in Severodonetsk.

The Ukrainians then add this little zinger, adding that overall in Donetsk, Russian troops seem to have decreasing morale brought on by their high losses. Makes sense, the lack of Russian advances over the last week has been minimal. Indeed they seem to have stalled everywhere.

Here is @TheStudyofWar maps for the Donbas today and ten days ago. This change is minimal, certain longest advances down to less than a kilometre a day. One supposed success, the capture of SDonetsk, has not happened and there are reports that Ukraine has taken back areas.

Cant stress this enough, this lack of movement and inability to make/sustains breakthroughs is a sign on a failing offensive. No way this should be portrayed, as it is in the press in places, as some Russian success. Its a slow attack decreasing in intensity.

Havent found Ukrainian loss claims for Russian tanks for today, but this week seens a continuation of the number of tanks Ukraine is claiming to destroy. A sign (with the lack of Russian movement) that they really are short of tanks.

Indeed we are seeing small, single figure tank claims covering all of Ukraine. Russian tanks have been hit in such large numbers that they cant seem to concentrate enough to go forward, despite the love of all the tank boys.

Unless the Russians are able to concentrate and maintain an offensive operation, really looks like Battle of Donbas has reached its static phase, with the Russians (maybe) able to take a few more areas here and there.

Well, if the @GeneralStaffUA evening update is to be believed, the Russians only made ranged attacks today in the Donbas. Here is the text, see Lyman, Siverodonetsk and Bakhmut; nada, zip, zero for Russian attempts to advance. All artillery, MLRS, air, etc.

Think this is the first time since the start of the Battle of the Donbas started in mid/late April that no Russian attempt to advance to as recorded. And again, Russian army has achieved no significant goals in the campaign, unless you think of Lyman or Popasna as major captures

As I mentioned this morning, if the Russians don’t try and move forward again soon, that might be it. Culmination. Actually failure is a better word. People talking about some important Russian victories in the Donbas might have to reconsider. Here is the report btw.

https://twitter.com/generalstaffua/status/1533131263070060545

Just putting this here, Russian momentum seems to have stopped in the last two days, and if anything has gone into reverse in what was seen as their primary objective.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1533159413573472257

Another similar story to above.

https://twitter.com/iuliiamendel/status/1533183635074998273