Logical Fallacies are errors in reasoning that destroy the quality of an argument.
20 dangerous Logical Fallacies to identify and avoid:
Ad Hominem
Latin phrase for "to the person”—an attack of the individual rather than the argument.
Instead of addressing the argument’s merits, the offender attempts to refute the opposition on the basis of personal characteristics.
Common in political (and Twitter) debates.
Red Herring
The kippered herring was a smelly fish used to distract hunting dogs while training them to focus on a scent.
"Red herring" is now synonymous with distraction.
The offender distracts from the argument with a seemingly related—but actually unrelated—point.
The Texas Sharpshooter
A Texan fires a gun at a barn wall and then paints a target around the closest cluster of holes to create the appearance of a sharp shot.
The offender selects and highlights evidence that supports the conclusion—while ignoring evidence that may refute it.
Sunk Cost Fallacy
Sunk costs are economic costs already invested in an activity that cannot be recovered.
The fallacy is found in thinking that you should continue on the basis of all that you've put in—with no regard for future costs or likelihood of ultimate success.
Bandwagon Fallacy
An assumption of truth on the basis of the majority of people believing it to be true.
"Everyone believes X, so obviously X is true."
Typically offered without regard for the qualifications or ability of the people in question to validate the claim.
Straw Man
Setup a straw man to tear down.
The offender ignores the actual argument and replaces it with a flimsy, easily-refuted argument—a "straw man" to be torn down.
By replacing a strong argument with a weak one, the offender aims to create the illusion of a swift victory.
The Appeal to Authority
The over-reliance on the perspective of an "expert" to support the legitimacy of an argument.
The qualifications of the figure in the field of question must be considered.
Expert support can be a feature—but not the sole pillar—of the argument.
The False Dilemma
Only presenting two choices or alternatives when there are many more that exist.
This ignores nuance and lends itself to extreme positions.
Typically reduces the potential for compromise—as the two options are painted as being extremely far apart.
Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc
A flimsy argument framework that says since Event B followed Event A, Event B must have been caused by Event A.
Just because B followed A, doesn’t necessarily mean that B was caused by A.
Correlation ≠ Causation.
No True Scotsman
The "appeal to purity"—the changing of the original argument to evade a counter-argument.
You claim a Scotsman never drinks scotch with soda. Charles says he is a Scotsman and drinks scotch with soda. You exclaim that Charles must not be a true Scotsman!
Personal Incredulity
You cannot understand or believe something, so you argue that it cannot be true.
Complex topics often require significant upfront work to understand—an inability to do so immediately cannot be used to argue the illegitimacy of a claim.
Burden of Proof
The inability to provide evidence that a claim is false is used as justification that the claim is true.
Remember, the burden of proof always lies with the person making the claim to provide evidence.
The lack of refuting evidence IS NOT supporting evidence.
Hasty Generalization
Jumping to conclusions.
Substantial, wide-ranging conclusions are made on the basis of an immaterial, narrow body of evidence.
Insufficient evidence has been gathered to justify the claimed conclusions.
Non-Sequitur
The conclusion does not follow logically from the premises.
Presented evidence provides little or no actual support for the argument.
“Charles ate fish for dinner and is well-spoken, so he must be a banker.”
Tu Quoque
Latin for “you too” —attempting to discredit an opponent’s argument by pointing out personal behavior as being inconsistent with their argument.
Targeting the hypocrisy of the opponent.
“Don’t question my integrity, look at all of the bad things you’ve done!”
Slippery Slope
An argument that begins with a benign starting point before using a series of successive steps to get to a more radical, extreme end point.
No single step appears ridiculous on the surface, but the connection of multiple steps into a series is highly-improbable.
Begging the Question
A form of circular reasoning in which the argument is presented in such a way that the conclusion is included in the premise.
“Ghosts are real because I once experienced something that had to be a ghost.”
Easy to identify. The logic collapses on itself.
Loaded Question
Asking a question with a presumption built into the question (pre-loaded!).
Typically intended to be inflammatory in nature.
The individual on the receiving end of the question is forced to respond despite the baseless, irrelevant nature of the presumption.
Equivocation
Comes from the roots “equal” and “voice” - a single word or phrase can say two very different things.
Occurs when the offender uses a word or phrase in an intentionally misleading manner that sounds like it’s saying one thing but is actually saying something else.
The Fallacy Fallacy
Incorrectly assumes that a claim must be false if a fallacy was used to argue the claim.
Just because someone has poorly argued a claim, does not mean the claim itself is definitively false.
Those are 20 common—and dangerous—logical fallacies that destroy the quality of arguments.
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And check out the latest episode of our podcast for a deep dive on some cognitive biases and logical fallacies that relate to investing with the great @wolfejosh! podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/whe…
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If you’re 16-24 and trying to get ahead, I have an idea for you.
Try this:
Next Saturday morning, put on a button down shirt and grab a notebook and pen.
Go to a local coffee shop and buy a big jug of coffee.
Take 10 disposable cups and some creamer.
Pick a nearby nice-ish neighborhood and head there.
Pick a house and ring the doorbell.
If someone answers, say something like:
“Good morning! I’m [Name]. I’m [Age] and I’m trying to learn more about different careers. Would you mind if I took 10 minutes of your time over a coffee and asked you a few questions about your work?”
I am 99% sure that @wolfejosh is the most interesting man in the world…
This was a mind-blowing discussion:
• Rebranding nuclear energy
• The power of being an underdog
• Investing in the world of atoms
• Contrarian take on Elon Musk
We often talk about the power of believing in yourself.
It’s a common theme of books, movies, and tv shows—a main character is down and out, but then develops a deep belief in themself and is able to overcome the odds and win.
But what if you don’t believe in yourself?
Belief is sort of an indirect function of your experience.
In other words, your belief in yourself is bounded by what you’ve learned in your lifetime.
You only know what you know.
It may be rational to not believe something is possible.
Every decision you make is either:
• An investment in your future self
• A punishment for your future self
Make decisions today that your future self will thank you for.
A few “easy” decisions that have great ROI:
• Sunlight every morning
• Sleeping 7-8+ hours
• Moving for 30 min daily
• Reading for 30 min daily
• Writing for 15 min daily
• Investing a little bit every month
• Eating real, unprocessed foods
• Daily gratitude practice
Once I fully internalized the idea that my decisions each day had a direct impact on my future self, I started being more thoughtful.
I started asking whether daily habits would be something my future self would thank me for.
It’s not always clear, but it’s a helpful heuristic.