There is a lot to unpack from this video & for the purposes of this thread. 🧵 The assumption is we are looking at a timely #Severodonetsk counterattack video.
Short form:
The Russian Army has run out of trained infantry, which is what "Culminating Point" means. 1/
Ukraine has inflicted on the order of 79,000 Russian KIA & WIA to date.
Of the 190,000 Russian troops that invaded only between 10% & 20% are dismounted infantry, most likely on the lower end due to Russian "Ghost Troops" corruption.
What is 10% of 190,000?
2/
It's 19,000, and 20% is 38,000.
Russia has not only burned through all its infantry. It has burned through all the LNR infantry as well.
Which is why bolt-action rifle armed DNR troops were sent to both Mariupol and now Severodonetsk in Luhansk. They & the Chechen
3/
National Guard units were the last reserves of Russian infantry in all of Ukraine.
The DNR is the armed forces of one of Russia's two puppet "Separatist Republics." The fiction of that status is the DNR fighting in #Severodonetsk, Luhansk Oblast in lieu Russian or LNR forces
4/
Those two DNR prisoners tell you a lot by a look.
They have no body armor of any kind, not even Afghanistan era anti-fragment vests.
They have no tactical web gear.
They have no helmets.
All these might have been taken from them, but one of the prisoners still
5/
...having a belt and the small arms in the background argue they didn't have any for the UA to take away.
Note as well both DNR soldiers had white cloth tied around both arms and a leg as visual 'identification friend or foe' for infantry close combat.
6/
There are videos of Ukrainian ground forces using flag patches and yellow cloth or tape for the same purpose.
So, what does this tell us in context?
Committing DNR infantry in close combat in #Severodonetsk was lunacy born of complete utter desperation.
7/
DNR infantry are armed with bolt action rifles (see video below).
Ukrainian infantry has nothing but assault rifles. The Ukrainian Foreign Legion counterattack in #Severodonetsk succeeded in large part because
...they hit bolt-action rifle armed DNR infantry that had no radios to call down Russian or their own artillery.
Motivated Ukrainian foreign military volunteers with assault rifles versus impressed DNR conscripts with bolt-action rifles was only going to go one way, & did.
9/
The Western intelligence agencies who were thinking of the Russian 1km a day advances in the Donbas as "Russian Offensives" were utterly wrong.
I'm looking at you, UK MoD.
They were Ukrainian 'shaping operations' - a Trap - intended to kill the last available
10/
...Russian reserve of dismounted infantry in the Ukrainian theater.
Right now 90% of living Russian Army & LNR infantry are wounded in Belarus, Donbas & Russian hospitals.
DNR & Chechen infantry are now headed to mobile crematoria or hospitals thanks to the fighting
11/
No competent Western intelligence agency would have missed the implications of the total Russian casualties on the remaining availability & quality of Russian infantry in Ukraine.
This is quite literally "Military Intelligence 101."
14/
I strongly suggest that the UK MoD mid-level intelligence types avail themselves of that unofficial back channel to the Monarchy that everyone pretends doesn't exist, but knows it does, to explain to the Queen what has been going down with UK's Ukrainian intelligence.
15/
Unfortunately, there are no similar institutions in Western nations without monarchies to fix this intelligence problem elsewhere.🤦♂️🤦♀️🤦
16/End
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I've gotten some push back on my last two casualties in the Russo-Ukrainian War threads.
So, I'm going to drop some photo clips in this 🧵from on-line WW2 casualty documents that were background to the previous casualty posts.
They will illuminate who is dying in this war.
1/
When I referenced Trevor Dupuy in the previous tweets. It was due to the fact I backtracked to WW2 casualty reports to validate Dupuy's source data so I could trust it.
There were a lot of casualty reports in WW2, but they had the same general pattern for battle casualties.
2/
When it comes to non-battle casualties, the WW2 reports get a lot flakier.
Let's start with the 1945 Okinawa Campaign and specifically with issues of neuropsychiatric casualties
3/
Ukraine has taken between 4,300 & 6,000 KIA & ~25,000 WIA based on the retweeted @RALee85 thread.
In 20th century mechanized warfare, historically, you see one dead out of five casualties.
Of the wounded, 50% are lost for the war as combatants. Some will be available
2/
...for light clerical/logistical work that always sucks away manpower from the front. That is 12,500 Ukrainian soldiers.
Of the other 12,500 wounded, those who are 'lightly wounded' and can still fight do so until blood loss or infection make them "I can no longer fight
3/
@NekhayShchastyt The speed with which a modern railway bridge can be repaid is much faster than WW2 or Korea due to the existence of major prefabricated concrete structures.
@NekhayShchastyt Russia's anti-railway campaign is failing in large part because Ukraine has large concrete structure vendors because it isn't a kleptocracy like Russia.
So there are a lot of concrete structures available to patch bridges & other rail infrastructure which Russia lacks.
3/