There is a lot to unpack from this video & for the purposes of this thread. 🧵 The assumption is we are looking at a timely #Severodonetsk counterattack video.
Short form:
The Russian Army has run out of trained infantry, which is what "Culminating Point" means.
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Short form:
The Russian Army has run out of trained infantry, which is what "Culminating Point" means.
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https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1532419363806097409
Ukraine has inflicted on the order of 79,000 Russian KIA & WIA to date.
Of the 190,000 Russian troops that invaded only between 10% & 20% are dismounted infantry, most likely on the lower end due to Russian "Ghost Troops" corruption.
What is 10% of 190,000?
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Of the 190,000 Russian troops that invaded only between 10% & 20% are dismounted infantry, most likely on the lower end due to Russian "Ghost Troops" corruption.
What is 10% of 190,000?
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It's 19,000, and 20% is 38,000.
Russia has not only burned through all its infantry. It has burned through all the LNR infantry as well.
Which is why bolt-action rifle armed DNR troops were sent to both Mariupol and now Severodonetsk in Luhansk. They & the Chechen
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Russia has not only burned through all its infantry. It has burned through all the LNR infantry as well.
Which is why bolt-action rifle armed DNR troops were sent to both Mariupol and now Severodonetsk in Luhansk. They & the Chechen
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National Guard units were the last reserves of Russian infantry in all of Ukraine.
The DNR is the armed forces of one of Russia's two puppet "Separatist Republics." The fiction of that status is the DNR fighting in #Severodonetsk, Luhansk Oblast in lieu Russian or LNR forces
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The DNR is the armed forces of one of Russia's two puppet "Separatist Republics." The fiction of that status is the DNR fighting in #Severodonetsk, Luhansk Oblast in lieu Russian or LNR forces
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Those two DNR prisoners tell you a lot by a look.
They have no body armor of any kind, not even Afghanistan era anti-fragment vests.
They have no tactical web gear.
They have no helmets.
All these might have been taken from them, but one of the prisoners still
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They have no body armor of any kind, not even Afghanistan era anti-fragment vests.
They have no tactical web gear.
They have no helmets.
All these might have been taken from them, but one of the prisoners still
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...having a belt and the small arms in the background argue they didn't have any for the UA to take away.
Note as well both DNR soldiers had white cloth tied around both arms and a leg as visual 'identification friend or foe' for infantry close combat.
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Note as well both DNR soldiers had white cloth tied around both arms and a leg as visual 'identification friend or foe' for infantry close combat.
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There are videos of Ukrainian ground forces using flag patches and yellow cloth or tape for the same purpose.
So, what does this tell us in context?
Committing DNR infantry in close combat in #Severodonetsk was lunacy born of complete utter desperation.
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So, what does this tell us in context?
Committing DNR infantry in close combat in #Severodonetsk was lunacy born of complete utter desperation.
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DNR infantry are armed with bolt action rifles (see video below).
Ukrainian infantry has nothing but assault rifles. The Ukrainian Foreign Legion counterattack in #Severodonetsk succeeded in large part because
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Ukrainian infantry has nothing but assault rifles. The Ukrainian Foreign Legion counterattack in #Severodonetsk succeeded in large part because
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https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1525055727286599682
...they hit bolt-action rifle armed DNR infantry that had no radios to call down Russian or their own artillery.
Motivated Ukrainian foreign military volunteers with assault rifles versus impressed DNR conscripts with bolt-action rifles was only going to go one way, & did.
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Motivated Ukrainian foreign military volunteers with assault rifles versus impressed DNR conscripts with bolt-action rifles was only going to go one way, & did.
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The Western intelligence agencies who were thinking of the Russian 1km a day advances in the Donbas as "Russian Offensives" were utterly wrong.
I'm looking at you, UK MoD.
They were Ukrainian 'shaping operations' - a Trap - intended to kill the last available
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I'm looking at you, UK MoD.
They were Ukrainian 'shaping operations' - a Trap - intended to kill the last available
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...Russian reserve of dismounted infantry in the Ukrainian theater.
Right now 90% of living Russian Army & LNR infantry are wounded in Belarus, Donbas & Russian hospitals.
DNR & Chechen infantry are now headed to mobile crematoria or hospitals thanks to the fighting
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Right now 90% of living Russian Army & LNR infantry are wounded in Belarus, Donbas & Russian hospitals.
DNR & Chechen infantry are now headed to mobile crematoria or hospitals thanks to the fighting
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...in #Severodonetsk.
Disproportionate infantry losses in combat are a phenomena that is literally centuries old. Trevor Dupuy wrote about it here:
Attrition: Forecasting Battle Casualties and Equipment Losses in Modern War (Falls Church, VA: NOVA Publications, 1995)
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Disproportionate infantry losses in combat are a phenomena that is literally centuries old. Trevor Dupuy wrote about it here:
Attrition: Forecasting Battle Casualties and Equipment Losses in Modern War (Falls Church, VA: NOVA Publications, 1995)
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A summary blog post at the Dupuy Institute blog about modern war loss rates is at the following link:
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dupuyinstitute.org/blog/2016/06/1…
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dupuyinstitute.org/blog/2016/06/1…
No competent Western intelligence agency would have missed the implications of the total Russian casualties on the remaining availability & quality of Russian infantry in Ukraine.
This is quite literally "Military Intelligence 101."
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This is quite literally "Military Intelligence 101."
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I strongly suggest that the UK MoD mid-level intelligence types avail themselves of that unofficial back channel to the Monarchy that everyone pretends doesn't exist, but knows it does, to explain to the Queen what has been going down with UK's Ukrainian intelligence.
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Unfortunately, there are no similar institutions in Western nations without monarchies to fix this intelligence problem elsewhere.🤦♂️🤦♀️🤦
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