Thread by @McFaul

After 100 days of Putin's unprovoked, barbaric invasion of Ukraine, let's remember the forest and trees. Putin is winning a few battles now. He may win more. But he has lost his war already. 1/ THREAD

Let's remember what Putin outlined as his war objectives. In his long essay about Ukraine, his hour-long speech before the war & many other times, Putin was very clear about what he aimed to achieve. So far, he's achieved very little. 2/

Putin explained to us that Russians and Ukrainians were one nation -- Ukrainians are just Russians with accents. He aimed to reunite this nation, torn apart as much by the Bolsheviks as the West. Regarding this objective, he has failed miserably. 3/

Putin has done more than just fail to recolonize Ukraine. He has actually helped to rejuvenate and reunify the Ukrainian nation. Look at Ukrainian opinion polls. They are more united as a nation today than maybe ever before. 4/

Second, Putin aimed to "denazify" Ukraine. He had planned to install his own puppet regime in Kyiv. He failed completely. 5/

Third, Putin aimed to "demilitarize" Ukraine. Again, complete failure. His invasion has actually strengthened Ukraine's military, now armed with better weapons than ever before & more is on the way. 6/

Fourth, Putin aimed to seize Kyiv and Ukraine's second-largest city. Again, complete failure. 7/

Fifth, Putin has now scaled back his war aims to just take Donbas and what Russians call "Novorossiya", connecting Donbas to Crimea. So far, he has only captured a handful of cities, barely more land than he de facto controlled in 2014. 8/

And the costs of taking this handful of cities have been tremendous for Russia's army. Russia has lost giant numbers of soldiers and weapons. Russia's army will take years to recover, and will have to try to do so now without access to Western technology. 9/

Putin's invasion of Ukraine also has triggered sweeping sanctions, doing deep damage to the Russian economy. It will take years if not decades to recover. Russian economic isolation from the West will last as long as Putin is in power. 10/

Putin loves to berate American allies as "vassals." Yet, a "vassal" state is exactly what Russia will become to China as a result of Putin's invasion. 11/

And what about that "NATO threat" that allegedly played a role in Putin's decision to invade? Well, NATO is way more unified today than before the war and soon to be stronger with 2 new members joining. 12/

Its too early to predict with certainty, but post-war Ukraine is likely to be more democratic, and rebuild a more competitive, open, and less-oligarchic economy than before, accelerating Ukraine's EU membership aspirations, the exact opposite of what Putin wants. 13/

I hope Im wrong, but tragically, the Battle for Donbas is likely to drag on for months, producing only incremental gains for either side but at a tremendous loss of Ukrainian and Russian lives. Putin could just stop today & begin negotiations. But he won't. 14/

But keep that battle in context. We dont know yet who will win the Battle for Donbas. But we do know who has won the War for Ukraine -- Ukrainians. And we do know who are the losers of this war -- Putin and the Russian people. 15/ END THREAD