Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

Will be a very short Sunday update, as little seems to have changed from yesterday's news. Combat intensity across Ukraine remains low as gauged from Ukrainian claims of Russian losses

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1532997505868255233

Tank losses have been trending down for weeks, and now firmly in single digits. APC losses also now have started trending considerably lower too. Might be that the massive Russian equipment losses in armored vehicles of all types has made forward movement very difficult.

Claimed Russian artillery/MLRS losses have not trended downwards nearly as clearly, so evidence that we are moving to the ranged warfare stage.

@GeneralStaffUA morning update has a little some evidence of Russian attempts to move forward at Lyman, but otherwise pretty clear Russian army is not pressing.

https://twitter.com/GeneralStaffUA/status/1533314248293638152?s=20&t=O4r7GegfsevGsr2rlj9kpQ

@TheStudyofWar report last night had reports of Ukrainians actually counterattacking and retaking parts of SDonetsk. understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…

Big picture. The Russians seem to have lost the initiative almost everywhere. In the southwest, they are mostly on the defensive, and when they have tried to counterattack the Ukrainians, the Ukrainians are claiming they have been driven back with losses.

In the Donbas, the Russian offensive is really dragging. I do hope all the media that has spent the last few weeks talking about supposed Russians victories in the region, might start recalibrating.

Indeed, in the battle of the Donbas, none of the villages/small cities taken are of any strategic value (as they dont effect Ukraine's ability to wage the war going forward). The key thing from these battles is what the losses were on each side and whether they can be made up.

My guess is that the Ukrainians have won the battle in that term, that the Russians have further burned themselves out trying to take objectives for domestic political objectives not strategic one. And that soon the Russians will find themselves on the defensive more and more.

Remember, its the Ukrainians that are getting and learning to use better systems than they had at the start of the war. The Russians are trying to get by with the same or worse systems.

Speaking about newer and better systems…does anyone know about the Spanish army’s kit?

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1533355879902453762

Adding this here.

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1533258469083586566