Thread by @anders_aslund

For about two months, the fronts in Ukraine have moved minimally. Many talk about a stalemate & some foresee that Ukraine will have to give up the territories that Russia captured in the first week of the war & still keep. I don't think so. Russia is likely to lose.

1. Putin appears completely dysfunctional unable to recognize reality and divisively mean to all. No military commander since Nicolas II has been worse than Putin. He shoots himself in the foot all the time. This man can't win & is unlikely to stay in power for long.

2. Putin seems to rely most on Nikolai Patrushev & Yuri Kovalchuk, who appear even more detached from Putin than others & he promotes people for being unrealistic & extreme, as Stalin at his worst times, but never retreating like Stalin.

3. Putin has disorganized the military & its command. First, the war was commanded by Gerasimov, who has been pushed into the background. Then by 3-5 generals, now out. Then by General Dvornikov, now sacked. Putin's command of chaos is unlikely to work.

4. Putin has been unable to formulate a credible goal for his war in Ukraine. Therefore, his soldiers have nothing but their meager pay & fear to fight for. They are not fighting for their fatherland but for Putin's obvious lies.

5. Putin has great problems gathering soldiers. He has not carried out any mobilization & is unlikely to do so, because that would hit the sons in the big cities & of the middle class, who would be politicized. Few contract soldiers want to fight. Steady reports of mutinies.

6. Ukraine records more than 30,000 Russian soldiers killed, 12 generals & dozens of colonels. This must be demoralizing as everything suggests. The big question remains when a major mutiny will occur. Are such fears leading to the near Russian standstill we see now?

7. We have never seen the Russian security forces as split & leaking as they are now. The military seem in near chaos with all killings & sackings. The FSB seems split & partially against Putin, as does SVR. Such splits usually precede coups.

8. Clearly, Putin is not healthy. The many seemingly fake events after May 9 suggest that he is out of operation for long period. Two years of extreme isolation because of Covid & presumably security concerns appear to have taken a toll as well.

9. The extensive Western sanctions that are only getting tougher seem to have stopped most of Russian arms production & the Russians fight primarily with their vast volume of old Soviet artillery that can last for a long time.

10. The Western sanctions have started to bite & they will hurt the economy ever more as Russia runs out of inputs for all kinds of production. The standard forecasts are a GDP decline of 10-15% this year. I would guess 15-20%. Some time the Russian people may protest.

11. Ukraine, by contrast, has an unlimited number of patriotic & motivated soldiers, though many need more training for the number to rise to 1 million. The Ukrainian commanders have excelled as nobody anticipated.

12. Ukraine's great need is for heavy artillery & precise long-distance missiles. Finally, the US has started providing Ukraine with such weapons, but it is vital that the volumes and the speed delivery suffice. These weapons can and should turn the war.

13. It is incomprehensible how the US and other Western countries can insist on Ukrainian forces not attacking the scores of bases in Russia, from which the Russians bomb Ukraine. Ukraine must have the full right to defend itself against its attacker (UN charter art 51).

14. “Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security."

15. The US and others cannot demand that Ukraine reneges on its rights according to the UN Charter.

16. My conclusion is that as soon as Ukraine receives sufficient US modern artillery, it can start chasing the immoral and demoralized Russian soldiers out of Ukraine.