Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 7 12 tweets 4 min read
This is a Starlink in Ukraine & future history thread🧵

In case you all haven't noticed, Starlink connected to the Ukrainian 'Gis Arta' artillery C3I app in a vehicle mobile device is pure death for Russians.

For which, see here👇

And also see Ukraine's PzH-2000 155mm self-propelled gun software upgrade here:

The Russians have a great many reasons to be utterly pissed off at Elon Musk.

I have referred to the Russo-Ukrainian War as the "First Starlink War" for many good & sufficient reasons.

The military & political power accruing to Musk from Starlink and Starship will not
3/ broken up by the American SCOTUS for the next 20 years.

And I mentioned the military dimension for a reason. If Russia wants to start "Space War One" with Elon. It will lose it for logistical reasons.

1st, Russia failed at hacking Starlink.

2nd, every satellite with a working thruster can be an anti-satellite weapon ONCE.

Musk has more ion drive 'space ammo' than everyone else in humanity combined & can launch it faster & cheaper than Russia without Starship.

Software used to avoid space impacts can be used
5/ direct them.

And this leaves out the possibility that multiple close approaches by Starlink satellite's won't be arranged such that a Russian ASAT gets blasted & 'soft killed' by Kryption fueled ion thrusters using temporarily positive-charged ion thrust streams.

And by the way, with sufficient warning from the US Space Force, the delta vee that Starlink satellites have from their ion thrusters make them a slippery target for an orbital maneuvering ASAT.

Superior specific impulse & long burn times do that.
This doesn't mean a direct assent Russian ASAT can't tag a Starlink bird.

The problem is that after the 1st try, they will be harder to hit.

Plus, Musk's SpaceX simply has more replacement Starlink satellites in his next Falcon-9 launch than Russia has direct assent ASATs.
So playing high tech "Hybrid War" with SpaceX is a losing hand for the Putin Regime.

Russia attacking SpaceX launch or control facilities in the territory of USA will start a war Putin is guaranteed to lose.

That leaves assassination, which is where Ukraine comes in.
However the Russo-Ukrainian War ends, the Ukrainian people will be a very close political and military ally of Musk for the rest of his life.

It is a Ukrainian blood debt to be repaid to Elon Musk which hits a whole lot of deep cultural identity keys
10/ the Ukrainian national character.

There is a lot that flows from that fact which many of Musk's detractors & enemies clearly have not begun to think through.

A lot of Humanity's future history will have its roots in this 21st century blood-debt relationship.
Frankly, things have been so "science fiction turned reality" lately.

I would not be surprised if SpaceX gets a detachment of Ukrainian Space Marine-Astronauts for Elon's personal & Martian colony security in the 2030's.


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More from @TrentTelenko

Jun 9
Alright, one more Russo-Ukraine War casualty rate thread🧵

This one is to deal with a specific criticism of my 5 June 2022 posts that WW2 casualty rates are in no way representative of what Russia is suffering in Ukraine.

There is a point to that "WW2 isn't representative" criticism, but it doesn't cut the way people making that argument think.

Casualty rates are a function of the type of combat fought and the medical support available. The reality about Russia's Army in Ukraine is that it

...has the highest AFV to soldier ratio of any combat force fighting on this scale...ever.

This wasn't by design.

It was a downstream consequence of "Ghost Troop" corruption, a grift where Russian commanders pocket the payroll for soldiers not present in their unit.

Read 29 tweets
Jun 8
Anatomy of a Ukrainian trap - In case you didn't notice, the rail track in the video was cut immediately 'above' the killed BMP.

If Russians are using truck-trains at night for moving artillery ammo, a cut like that will bring both a security element & a repair crew.
If a single 90 hp WW2 jeep can do this in Burma:

Or a pair of them could do this in Australia.

Read 5 tweets
Jun 7
Donbas artillery logistics and Russian "Offensive Culminating Point" thread🧵

NATO 155mm/52 caliber self propelled guns donated to Ukraine are making themselves felt.👇

The effects of a Caesar networked digital fast wheeled SPH integrated in to the Ukrainian GIS Arta digital fire control network can now be seen.

80 Russian artillery pieces have been destroyed with less than 12 Caesar SPH in a few days:
Read 14 tweets
Jun 5
I've gotten some push back on my last two casualties in the Russo-Ukrainian War threads.

So, I'm going to drop some photo clips in this 🧵from on-line WW2 casualty documents that were background to the previous casualty posts.

They will illuminate who is dying in this war.
When I referenced Trevor Dupuy in the previous tweets. It was due to the fact I backtracked to WW2 casualty reports to validate Dupuy's source data so I could trust it.

There were a lot of casualty reports in WW2, but they had the same general pattern for battle casualties.

When it comes to non-battle casualties, the WW2 reports get a lot flakier.

Let's start with the 1945 Okinawa Campaign and specifically with issues of neuropsychiatric casualties

Read 22 tweets
Jun 4
There is a lot to unpack from this video & for the purposes of this thread. 🧵 The assumption is we are looking at a timely #Severodonetsk counterattack video.

Short form:
The Russian Army has run out of trained infantry, which is what "Culminating Point" means.
Ukraine has inflicted on the order of 79,000 Russian KIA & WIA to date.

Of the 190,000 Russian troops that invaded only between 10% & 20% are dismounted infantry, most likely on the lower end due to Russian "Ghost Troops" corruption.

What is 10% of 190,000?

It's 19,000, and 20% is 38,000.

Russia has not only burned through all its infantry. It has burned through all the LNR infantry as well.

Which is why bolt-action rifle armed DNR troops were sent to both Mariupol and now Severodonetsk in Luhansk. They & the Chechen

Read 16 tweets
Jun 3
Russian Army culminating point reached?👇

And Putin's military commander in chief in Ukraine just got canned?👇

Read 6 tweets

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