Thread by @BaKanoide

It seems I'm not able to gather enough inspiration and motivation (and time, what I constantly lack to do all that I want and must) to sit for a few hours and write the Cogitation in the Time of War #32 (the 100+ days of Putin's Invasion). So I'll share here some points 1/

Most of the focus has been on the Donbas, first Izyum, then Popasna and now Sievierodonetsk because 🇷🇺 keeps "reducing" their goals, but actually I'm much more interested in what's happening near Kherson with 🇺🇦 counteroffensive there 2/

It started kinda slow but seems to be gathering momentum. Some people think the goal is to draw resources from the East but I'm not sure. 🇷🇺 is "working hard" in assimilating Southern UA so it is imperative to make it impossible for the Kremlin to announce an annexation 3/

I do believe 🇺🇦 wants to liberate Kherson and that would be great, as well as being another "nail in the coffin" for 🇷🇺 "special military operation".
Can UA do it? I think they can and just like what happened before, they will 4/

But to what cost? Significant cost. Early phase of the invasion seemed to come with limited losses on 🇺🇦 side (Armed Forces) but the current high attrition is not like that. Also going on the offensive is more risky and leads to higher casualties 5/

The same is seen on the Donbas. RU advances, where they bet all chips on, had gains but small ones considering this was the "real objective all along" but 🇺🇦 is suffering high attrition too, no doubts about it. It's the ugly phase many were expecting and warned about 6/

So yeah, currently keeping the Russians at bay is costing a lot of lives. But what is the alternative? Surrender to avoid more bloodshed? The violence in the occupied areas shows that won't stop it, even if Ukrainians roll over and play dead 7/

So all the talks about this being a war the West is conducting at the expense of Ukraine is bullshit. UA is fighting their own war for survival, freedom and independence and the West is helping. And there's more bullshit 8/

UA surrender to stop war is bullshit;
UA give territory to RU to stop war is bullshit;
UA accept terms from RU to stop war is bullshit;
And yes, not humiliating RU is bullshit! 9/

I've defended 🇫🇷 and Macron here before and will continue to do it. In the last interview that went viral (and after my Cogitation #31) he said right things about Ukraine but again used the infamous words "don't humiliate Russia". That is the main bullshit thing he repeats 10/

I would prefer a clarification of what he means with that, but seeing he hasn't given one I guess we won't have it anytime soon, also because being vague about it allows you to adapt the meaning depending on outcomes (intent is a major card in the international poker game) 11/

But many english-speaking pundits have decided that means 🇺🇦 has to concede something. I disagree based on other statements and actual 🇫🇷 actions to support UA and target 🇷🇺 but Russia will be humiliated because they must be defeated. After that yes, diplomacy takes the stage 12/

What is also bullshit is the worries by most of Western allies (NATO) that 🇺🇦 will attack 🇷🇺 territory with their supplied arms. Well, it's a war and UA already attacked targets inside Russia so yeah, that's what will happen and that is normal 13/

But these reservations that have come to light shows that there is still a lot of concerns about provoking Russia or giving them justification to escalate the war. I'm surprised that some of these leaders didn't realise this was a possibility once Putin decided to invade 14/

Even if Russia had manage to occupy Kyiv and take control of most of 🇺🇦 the threat of further "ventures" was there. Actually I'm being silly, this is not a possibility caused by the decision to invade in Feb, this is since Putin decided to reassert influence on 🇺🇦 and 🇬🇪 15/

So this goes back to at least 2004 following the Rose Revolution in 🇬🇪 and the Orange Revolution in 🇺🇦. February this year is basically when Putin decided to stop with the small blinds and go all-in. Now he should be defeated 16/

Would that be enough to stop Russia's imperial plans and mindset? People that know much better the country than me thinks the problem is not just Putin. Some even demand that Russia splits and becomes several states. I think that is an utopic wish but maybe I'm wrong 17/

To conclude: situation is not as dynamic as in first phase, people are getting tired of the war (as they usually do) and are focusing on "other issues"; 🇷🇺 focus on the Donbas brought some tactical wins but situation didn't change much 18/

🇺🇦 seems poised in retaking ground in the South and they should do it to prevent 🇷🇺 from annexing ASAP. I think they will get to Kherson soon and if they rout the Russian forces it will cause another moral breakdown. Lets wait and see /END