Thread by @ZiadFazel

Alberta continues to burn deeper into exponential growth of COVID-19, worse than any other province.

Led by Calgary, by far worst in Canada, with cases doubling every 4.2 Generation cycles, at 3.5 days/cycle = doubling every ~14 days.

Joined by Edmonton. Central & North close.

https://twitter.com/imgrund/status/1534196636007772160

Both the daily R from @imgrund and semi-weekly Wastewater Sampling at @ucalgaryCHI are leading indicators of #COVID19AB prevalence, ~5 days ahead of PCR.

Calgary has not recovered from 6th Wave, which GoA launched w rushed drop of safety measures through Feb (latest data 2 Jun).

@imgrund @ucalgaryCHI More recent wastewater sampling shows:
• Edmonton had more pronounced surge in May, and is rising again
• Medicine Hat & High River rising again
• Banff never recovered from May surge

We're sitting ducks for Omicron's ongoing mutation without (proven, simple) safety measures.

@imgrund @ucalgaryCHI @GosiaGasperoPhD @RajBhardwajMD @LeylaDAsadi @jvipondmd @demandsbetter @noelgibney @stuckncalgary @kasza_leslie @Adam_Toy @FionaMattatall As I said ⬆️, R & Wastewater Sampling predict PCR results by ~5 days.

covid-tracker.chi-csm.ca

We can already see test positivity stopped falling in Calgary AHS Zone, per GoA stats 30 June. Watch tomorrow's release for 5 June stats.

alberta.ca/stats/covid-19…

@imgrund @ucalgaryCHI @GosiaGasperoPhD @RajBhardwajMD @LeylaDAsadi @jvipondmd @demandsbetter @noelgibney @stuckncalgary @kasza_leslie @Adam_Toy @FionaMattatall What happens when you ignore:
• leading indicators like R & 💩
• current measures like PCR %

or lie that hospital admissions you promised to "closely monitor" are not rising?

1. Hospitals so full capacity is negative
2. Ambulances get tied up waiting
3. Lots of Albertans die

@imgrund @ucalgaryCHI @GosiaGasperoPhD @RajBhardwajMD @LeylaDAsadi @jvipondmd @demandsbetter @noelgibney @stuckncalgary @kasza_leslie @Adam_Toy @FionaMattatall You must be asking how Hospital Capacity becomes negative - even a province-wide average.

According to @HQCA, it is when patients are shoehorned into hallways & lounges. AFAIK, doesn't count "blocked beds" where people wait in ER or ambulance for a bed.

focus.hqca.ca/emergencydepar…

@imgrund @ucalgaryCHI @GosiaGasperoPhD @RajBhardwajMD @LeylaDAsadi @jvipondmd @demandsbetter @noelgibney @stuckncalgary @kasza_leslie @Adam_Toy @FionaMattatall @HQCA @AHS_media is supposed to report certain performance measures like Hospital Occupancy quarterly.

But I see nothing more recent than quarter ended 30 Sep 2021, reported 16 Nov. At least @HQCA gives us end Dec 2021.

By now we should have 31 Mar 2022.

albertahealthservices.ca/about/Page1264…

@imgrund @ucalgaryCHI @GosiaGasperoPhD @RajBhardwajMD @LeylaDAsadi @jvipondmd @demandsbetter @noelgibney @stuckncalgary @kasza_leslie @Adam_Toy @FionaMattatall @HQCA @AHS_media An example how old, averaged stats are misleading. Hides overflow at individual hospitals.

Red Deer Regional was at 82% 👍 in December 2021.

By April 2022, 14 ambulances backed up and surgeries being moved to other cities.

/c @HSAAlbertaEMS @PfParks

globalnews.ca/news/8850342/a…