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Jun 7 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
Donbas artillery logistics and Russian "Offensive Culminating Point" thread🧵

NATO 155mm/52 caliber self propelled guns donated to Ukraine are making themselves felt.👇

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Geolocation👇

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The effects of a Caesar networked digital fast wheeled SPH integrated in to the Ukrainian GIS Arta digital fire control network can now be seen.

80 Russian artillery pieces have been destroyed with less than 12 Caesar SPH in a few days:
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 en.defence-ua.com/events/french_…'
It looks like the artillery work of the French Caesar & Norwegian M109A3N 155mm guns are making themselves felt across Donbas.

A Caesar can reach 40 km with rocket assisted 155mm shells.

Hitting a Grad ammo dump 15 km behind the lines means a Caesar can be 25 km behind
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...the front lines.

This would put it out of range of most common 20km range 122mm Grad rocket ammunition.

So the Russians need to dedicate their remaining Smerch MLRS batteries in the Donbas to attempt to counter these NATO guns.

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And things will get a lot worse for the Russian Army when PzH-2000 155mm/52 Caliber SPH arrive in Eastern Ukraine.

See this thread🧵👇
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The problem the Russians have right now in Ukraine is one of military 'operational tempo.'

It is a problem the world saw in 1940 in the fight between France & Germany.

French high command were taking a day to turn around a decision that the Germans did in hours.
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Right now it is taking Russia one or more hours to turn around decisions Ukrainians are making in minutes.

This is why Russia keeps losing generals.

When Russian generals move forward to increase decision making speed for a set piece attack.


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They give their positions away by radio. Then Ukraine kills them.

This slows down Russian set-piece operations until a new Russian General is brought forward to repeat the set-piece attack process.

The new French & Norwegian 155mm SPH are now


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...starting to pick apart the Russian artillery logistics needed for set-piece attacks.

The effects of this Ukrainian w/NATO 155mm counterbattery campaign...

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...may also explain why the Russians are pushing their 122mm Grad rocket launchers within Stugna-P missile range of the front lines.

Smerch MLRS batteries that are tied up with defensive counter battery can't be used for offensive counter

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... battery work supporting set planned piece attacks.

Fewer and increasingly untrained Russian infantry replacements require more artillery ammo tonnage to achieve less battlefield results.

Now Ukraine is squeezing that ammo tonnage.
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The slowing down of the scale & intensity of the Russian offensive operations in Donbas and the stealing of troops in Southern Ukraine are all of a piece.

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I think the" Culminating Point" for Russian offensive operations in Ukraine is almost upon us.

We will see if I'm right in a couple of weeks (21 June 2022).

14/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 7
This is a Starlink in Ukraine & future history thread🧵

In case you all haven't noticed, Starlink connected to the Ukrainian 'Gis Arta' artillery C3I app in a vehicle mobile device is pure death for Russians.

For which, see here👇

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And also see Ukraine's PzH-2000 155mm self-propelled gun software upgrade here:

2/
The Russians have a great many reasons to be utterly pissed off at Elon Musk.

I have referred to the Russo-Ukrainian War as the "First Starlink War" for many good & sufficient reasons.

The military & political power accruing to Musk from Starlink and Starship will not
3/
Read 12 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 5
I've gotten some push back on my last two casualties in the Russo-Ukrainian War threads.

So, I'm going to drop some photo clips in this 🧵from on-line WW2 casualty documents that were background to the previous casualty posts.

They will illuminate who is dying in this war.
1/
When I referenced Trevor Dupuy in the previous tweets. It was due to the fact I backtracked to WW2 casualty reports to validate Dupuy's source data so I could trust it.

There were a lot of casualty reports in WW2, but they had the same general pattern for battle casualties.

2/
When it comes to non-battle casualties, the WW2 reports get a lot flakier.

Let's start with the 1945 Okinawa Campaign and specifically with issues of neuropsychiatric casualties

3/
Read 22 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 4
There is a lot to unpack from this video & for the purposes of this thread. 🧵 The assumption is we are looking at a timely #Severodonetsk counterattack video.

Short form:
The Russian Army has run out of trained infantry, which is what "Culminating Point" means.
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Ukraine has inflicted on the order of 79,000 Russian KIA & WIA to date.

Of the 190,000 Russian troops that invaded only between 10% & 20% are dismounted infantry, most likely on the lower end due to Russian "Ghost Troops" corruption.

What is 10% of 190,000?

2/
It's 19,000, and 20% is 38,000.

Russia has not only burned through all its infantry. It has burned through all the LNR infantry as well.

Which is why bolt-action rifle armed DNR troops were sent to both Mariupol and now Severodonetsk in Luhansk. They & the Chechen

3/
Read 16 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 3
Russian Army culminating point reached?👇

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More reports of same👇

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And Putin's military commander in chief in Ukraine just got canned?👇

3/
Read 6 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 3
I missed this yesterday regards Ukraine's sustained casualty loss rates. 👇

This will be a historical casualty loss rate versus current Ukrainian mobilization thread🧵

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Ukraine has taken between 4,300 & 6,000 KIA & ~25,000 WIA based on the retweeted @RALee85 thread.

In 20th century mechanized warfare, historically, you see one dead out of five casualties.

Of the wounded, 50% are lost for the war as combatants. Some will be available

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...for light clerical/logistical work that always sucks away manpower from the front. That is 12,500 Ukrainian soldiers.

Of the other 12,500 wounded, those who are 'lightly wounded' and can still fight do so until blood loss or infection make them "I can no longer fight
3/
Read 19 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 3
@NekhayShchastyt The speed with which a modern railway bridge can be repaid is much faster than WW2 or Korea due to the existence of major prefabricated concrete structures.

See my thread here:

@NekhayShchastyt And in particular the photos of this tweet:

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@NekhayShchastyt Russia's anti-railway campaign is failing in large part because Ukraine has large concrete structure vendors because it isn't a kleptocracy like Russia.

So there are a lot of concrete structures available to patch bridges & other rail infrastructure which Russia lacks.
3/
Read 7 tweets

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