Alex Luck Profile picture
Jun 9 7 tweets 2 min read
This is making the rounds now, and some details for the wrong reasons, such as technical details. Ultimately the primary issue appears to be the Scholz government appears to just wing their Ukraine assistance, making announcements out of the blue for PR.

businessinsider.de/politik/deutsc…
1) The Iris T-transfer: Apparently Egypt was not notified/briefed ahead of the Scholz declaration to send systems to Ukraine. Apparently (!) as a result the handover now is supposed to happen towards end of year. Likely Cairo accepted the change but conditionally.
2) The Marder for Greek BMP-1 swap: Greece too was caught out by Scholz announcement and insists all (50) Marder to be delivered first, before passing on their old ex GDR BMP-1 used on Greek islands, being worried about Turkey there and wanting to have defences in place always.
To top it off, apparently Rheinmetall, who previously offered to deliver Marder to Ukraine, was also not briefed on this new idea. Overall, the deal likely would take months. Again, we only have media reporting/hear say here, but we are starting to see a bit of a theme.
3) On M270 MLRS the paper reports, misleadingly, that the four launchers announced by Scholz for transfer, require a software update to fire American ammunition. To which: yeah kinda but not really. See OP below explaining the issue:
More notably, again this software patch is alleged to push back delivery to end of year ("many months worst case, as update is much more complicated than issues with Pzh 2000").
This is hard to fathom insofar as UA can still receive the launchers for firing unitary M31 meanwhile.
Tl;dr: Theme we are really seeing emerging, once again, is a German government mostly dragging feet on any meaningful assistance. Berlin also apparently doesnt brief partners ahead of making announcements, which then, conveniently one might say, creates even more delays. /end

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More from @AlexLuck9

Jun 10
Of course there is always another proposal. It's a company trying to stay in the game after all. That being said the tone here is illuminating IMO. First Australia, now Norway. A smell of fear who might be next. Call it a guess.
Note the touting of "inherent characteristics". Which are fully academic if delivery is years behind schedule and readiness rates abysmal. It's like saying "Yeah my MV Agusta is a very fast motorcycle. When it's not sitting in the shop waiting for parts".

Read 4 tweets
Jun 9
#TKMS still doesnt even have a Twitter account, as far as I can see anyway. Maybe the PR department already got sold some time ago.
I am frankly surprised they asked for an email. I would have expected a fax request. Signed and notarised.
A quick check reveals they are on LinkedIn with a dedicated account because of course, but just use the generic TK account for Twitter. For a company that is on sale every second year or so they sure arent trying hard to represent themselves.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 9
Several misrepresentations in this thread which I find notable. Quick point by point thread because these details matter and they have an unnerving habit of perpetuating false truths.
Japan, Singapore, RoK are all "in the area". Australia famously is not. Unless there is some idea for permanently forward deploying AU submarines, they won't be. RoK incidentally is a hot candidate for future SSN.
Fuel cell equipped SSK do not use AIP to recharge their batteries as SOP, it is inadequate in power density & reserves. They are used for station keeping once reaching an area of operations. JP now abandons Stirling for Li Ion batteries for same reason.

Read 8 tweets
Jun 8
“I think in reality as the former government left office, the projection of most was that [delivery] was more likely to be in the mid-2040s,”

theage.com.au/politics/feder…
"Asked whether he would order Defence to look into building a conventional fleet of submarines, Marles said: “We need to look at how we bridge the gap. That’s all I can say. And my mind is open about how we do that.”"
And on cue this: "Hellyer said his think tank had looked at how to transition from the Collins-class to nuclear submarines on a number of occasions and always come to the same conclusion that Australia can’t do it without something in between."
theage.com.au/politics/feder…
Read 9 tweets
May 31
Well, things are getting interesting now as to what else the German "special fund" worth 100 billion is expected to buy. Although the caveat here is things are still very vague and media may confuse procurements:

sueddeutsche.de/politik/bundes…
"On the list are new maritime recon planes." Does this mean more P-8A? Or a significant effort resuscitating MAWS with France?
Then we have "light tracked armored transport vehicles". This may be the LuWa Wiesel 1 replacement or one of its derivatives for utility roles. Also note a Fuchs-replacement (more Boxer?).
Read 5 tweets
May 28
Paywalled, aber der Witz hier re Gepard ist, es illustriert wieder mal, dass es in Deutschland nicht ausschliesslich an Unwillen hakt, sondern auch an einer grundlegenden Inkompetenz, simpelste Sachverhalte klar zu erlaeutern.

welt.de/politik/auslan…
Man muesste nicht ausfuehren, was wie gemacht wird (speziell das Nennen von Daten etc), sondern einfach nur den (nachvollziehbaren) Prozess gerade des Trainings, das unabdingbar fuer Bedienung (duh) ist, darlegen. Stattdessen wird nur mit dem Finger auf Industrie gezeigt.
Ich habe bei solchen Episoden eben nicht den Eindruck, da ist jemand in der Bundesregierung auch nur ansatzweise bereit, sich mit den relevanten Leuten an einen Tisch zu setzen, die Lage ueberhaupt begreifen zu wollen und dann oeffentliche Kommunikation entsprechend zu gestalten.
Read 4 tweets

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