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Alex Luck Profile picture
Alex Luck
@AlexLuck9
Chinese Navy. Bundeswehr. Navy-stuff. Cat/dog/spider-person. Überbringer schlechter Nachrichten. Contributor @navalnewscom. Articles at @FPRI. 🇩🇪🇦🇺 🏍️
Junior_prompt_engineer Profile picture Magdi Shalash Profile picture Potato Of Reason Profile picture 3 subscribed
Dec 7, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Thankfully the actual report by the German audit office is free to read, so I just looked at that instead. Link can be found here (pdf). Bullet points follow, as a comedy in eight acts: 1/
bundesrechnungshof.de/SharedDocs/Dow…
Effort to replace MCM capability by 2027 dates back to 2014. A standing commitment to NATO is to provide 11 boats with improved capability by 2031. Navy estimated original funding requirement at 2.7 bln Euros. 2/
Aug 20, 2023 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
"According to the US Congressional Research Service, the US navy has 9,000 missile vertical launch tubes to deliver long-range cruise missiles, compared with China’s 1,000."

This is false. Greg Austin's claim of this as a CRS-estimate is also misleading.
theconversation.com/the-us-navy-is… Actual source for these 1,000 cells for PLAN is Nick Childs, of IISS, himself cited in a CNN piece linked here. It is not immediately clear from that piece how Childs arrives at his claim, but it demonstrably wrong, unless "or so" is doing a lot of work. edition.cnn.com/2021/03/05/chi…
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Jun 1, 2023 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
Mal ein🧵auf Deutsch, weil es nun wild durch die lokale Diskussion geht bzgl "neuer" Eroeffnungen, angeblicher oder tatsaechlicher Skandale zum Thema F-35, Triebwerkproblemen, Block 4-Modernisierung. Was sind die Fakten?

gao.gov/products/gao-2… Teil 1 - Die Bloecke: F-35 ist ein Programm, das, wie viele vorherigen Entwicklungen in Evolutionen stattfindet. Strukturelles Kern-Element hier sind die "Blocks", die neue Faehigkeiten integrieren. Das ist nicht unaehnlich zu Eurofighter mit seinen "Tranchen", siehe EF T1 vs T4.
Jun 1, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Rheinmetall announces they will in collaboration with Ukroboronprom start to refurbish Fuchs APC for delivery to Ukrainian forces. Related joint venture will commence work by July. In second step full local production is intended.
esut.de/2023/06/meldun… Rheinmetall & Ukroboronprom previously announced signing strategic cooperation agreement for local manufacture of defence materiel. While observers (and CEO Papperger) named MBT, assembly of Fuchs may be more logical first step. UA said to have "four to five digit"-requirement.
May 30, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Still not a fan of "MBT are outdated."-take on Russian tank losses.

Yes, the Russian Army lost a metric shit ton of them.
Because they threw a dramatic amount of materiel, clearly without coherent operational plans, into a grinding war of attrition. Not because tanks dont work. Problem with such analysis tends to be that people fixate on "popular" weapon systems vs all the other stuff the Russians also lost immense amounts of.

Quite similar to the eternal "aircraft carriers are obsolete"-takes in naval discussions. Far less often a case for IFV or DDG.
Apr 26, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Marles: "The Defence Strategic Review has observed that navies around the world are moving in the direction, to put it kind of crudely, of having a larger number of smaller vessels,"

Not supported by any evidence. In fact combatants are growing in size.

msn.com/en-au/news/aus… Throw a rock in a random direction and it will land in the backyard of a navy building corvettes over 3,000 tonnes, frigates and destroyers blowing past 10,000 tons & shedding small specialist hulls for large multipurpose ones.
Apr 1, 2023 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
Just to put some more context on these issues, as they stand right now (and attract some interest in AU for the desired used Virginia SSN to be bought). There are three principal factors in play over the next few years: 1) There's Virginia Blk I-IV & theres Virginia Blk V aka the one fitted with the Virginia Payload Module. VPM comes with a notable increase in VLS capacity. It also comes with a notable increase in construction hours. One Virginia Blk V equals 1.25 regular Virginia in build time.
Mar 31, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Sharing for sake of coherent coverage. Apparently "discussions" continue on recapitalisation of Bundeswehr Tiger-fleet. No decision taken yet on choice of H145M (as per older media claim). Notably all options are still considered. H/t @bttr01438851

behoerden-spiegel.de/2023/03/29/vip… Personally, as I said elsewhere, this smells to me more like usual indecisive attitude in Berlin than serious consideration of available options. Article mentions even Tiger upgrade still considered, which I'm not sure is even feasible anymore, after ESP/F walked away from Mk 3.
Mar 5, 2023 • 18 tweets • 7 min read
German Navy just published a force structure-plan dubbed "Zielbild der Marine ab 2035" (Target posture of Navy from 2035), & it presents quite interesting figures. To call concept aspirational is an understatement. Short thread follows. H/t @naval_gazing
bundeswehr.de/de/organisatio… I will provide a complete summary of all that is written in an actual article for @navalnewscom later this week. For this thread lets just focus on this fascinating graphic outlining new structure from 2035. With the old target for 2031 seen left of the new figures.
Mar 4, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Rheinmetall head Papperger says company is negotiating with Kyiv on establishing Panther MBT production in Ukraine. Says talks are promising, hopes for decision in two months. Cost is 200 mln Euro for infrastructure, aims to produce 400 Panther per year. n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Rhe… H/t @Konflikt_Sicher!
Jan 13, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
As media claims of an imminent resignation by German MinDef Lambrecht are now gaining traction and credibility, let me be the first to buzz kill this particular piece of good news by claiming it will make very little difference. You see, Lambrecht was not the actual root of the problem, which is a dysfunctional administrative apparatus responsible for the misery we call GER defence capability. This of course is not some genius revelation of mine but long term fact. The office is unpopular for a reason.
Dec 24, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Launch of the third Lada-class SSK for the Russian Navy "Velikiye Luki" in St Petersburg. The hull had been laid down seven years ago, with work delayed & design revised in part due to multiple severe issues on the first of class "Sankt Petersburg".

Images via Weibo. Lada class introduced several notable changes over preceding Kilo class and variants. Most significantly they are a single hull design. They are also significantly smaller than Kilo, with a much reduced crew. Other changes are sail mounted diving planes & different stern rudders.
Dec 24, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
New details emerge on the failure of 18 PUMA IFV. Industry estimates fleet can be brought back in time for VJTF duties. More notably however the list of issues suggests factors other than type-related problems are culprit for failures. m.faz.net/aktuell/politi… Two most notable cases relate to damaged turret ring causing failure and a vehicle suffering wiring damage from overheating. In first (according to rumours) case cause is most likely an accidental obstacle collision. In second case rumor is plugs were set incorrectly.
Dec 18, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
After a gunnery exercise on a firing range in Germany 18 PUMA IFV suffered full system failures, notably in their (uncrewed) turret. While nature of defects was previously known, scale of issue unprecedented according to CO of 10th Panzerdivision. n-tv.de/politik/Komman… CO estimates it will take 3 to 4 months to restore readiness. The unit was scheduled to deploy with VJTF assignment. This means older MARDER IFV will once again have to cover availability gap. "Readiness of vehicles despite sound preparation akin to playing the lottery.".
Dec 13, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
"(Scholz:) “And I am therefore also extremely pleased that (TKMS) will expand its production in Germany and will also start production at the Wismar site from 2024.”"

Worth noting TKMS does this in anticipation also of more GER orders not yet realised.
navalnews.com/naval-news/202… In initial excitement over "Sondervermoegen" of 100 bln there was also some guessing that Berlin will order additonal Type 212CD to replace their first batch of 212A due for major & costly MLU soon.

But like with everything else statements since have been absent to support this.
Dec 13, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The Russian stockpiles in MBT, in regards to condition and ability to bring them back into service, have been somewhat of a contentious talking point long before February. Sure, they will try what they can, but take the 9k figure with a shaker's worth of salt. While it's never smart to underestimate an opponent, one key lesson from the campaign so far had been that Russian military materiel is in fact in worse condition than expected by many serious analysts. The appearance very early of vintage T-72 & now T-62 cases in point.
Dec 13, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Mit Respekt vor Sebastian, ich wuerde sowohl die "strategische Partnerschaft" als auch Singapurs Prioritaeten hier keinesfalls ueberbewerten. Speziell bei ersterem hat Berlin immer noch ernste Probleme, ueberhaupt mE die Definition von "strategisch" zu erkennen. Gibts da viel Potential fuer Kooperation seitens speziell der militaerischen Betreiber, aber auch industrieller Kapazitaeten? Auf jeden Fall! Wird dieses Potential so in Berlin wahrgenommen oder besteht ein Interesse daran, es auszuschoepfen? Wuerde ich nicht drauf wetten.
Sep 14, 2022 • 9 tweets • 1 min read
Watching a documentary on Munich '72 and man, if German attitude on security dilemmas they are not prepared for doesnt have an astonishing continuity. "This cannot be our problem. Get rid of it. Somehow."

The policy of the current German government to the dot.
Aug 1, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
"Die chinesische Staatsführung könnte einen strategischen Vorteil in einem früheren Angriff sehen, weil der Westen derzeit viele Kapazitäten im Russland-Konflikt bindet."

Das ist schlicht Nonsens, in zweierlei Hinsicht.

n-tv.de/politik/Lambsd… Punkt 1) China hat prinzipiell inzwischen Kompetenzen und Faehigkeiten fuer eine derartige Operation, aber es fehlt deutlich an der noetigen Masse u Erfahrung.

Punkt 2) Die relevanten US-Faehigkeiten, vor allem der Marine u Luftwaffe sind durch Ukraine nicht gebunden.
Jul 30, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
To be honest though, if the PLA was going to send a signal with significant exercises, pulling some of the civilian hulls for that purpose seems entirely logical. Generally speaking I am among the more "relaxed" observers when it comes to current tensions. Principally because I do not subscribe much to large scale bolt out of the blue conflicts. Could we see a persistent deterioration that down the road leads to kinetic measures? Sure.
Jul 27, 2022 • 13 tweets • 6 min read
A few thoughts on this announcement, because IMO it is the only way for Berlin to fix shortcomings & improvisations we have seen, since Scholz announced "Zeitenwende" & then didnt do much after. I will use Leopard 2 as example but it's just reflective of the entire problem. 🧵 First of all lets turn on the wayback-machine. Here are the production lots that established the original Leopard 2-fleet for Bundeswehr, back when the Cold War was pretty chilly still. This was the result of a functional procurement process enabling a functional arms industry.