If you blame Merkel for helping engineer the Minsk agreements, if you compare her with Chamberlain in Munich, you must have been born after 2015. If those deals hadn't been made, the Russian military would have steamrolled over a nearly defenseless Ukraine back then.
The Ukrainian leadership of the time was frightened, lost, inexperienced. It had just given up Crimea in a helpless panic. The Ukrainian military had been destroyed by years of underfunding and corruption. It suffered a few horrible defeats.
Those of us who watched the talks saw, and wrote, that the deals would be extremely hard to implement. Putin must have seen it, too, but back then, he still believed in deals. That saved Ukraine. Merkel & Hollande bought it time to establish a working statehood, build a military.
I should probably add something re Nord Stream 2. It was offered to Putin as a carrot for good behavior (i.e., not attacking again). The carrot was easy to withdraw, and it was withdrawn in a matter of days when Putin attacked. It also never pumped a single cubic meter of gas.
What I wrote at the time, btw: bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
I know it has also been argued that in Muncih Chamberlain bought valuable time for Britain. But he only bought a year. Merkel bought seven -- quite enough for Ukraine to have become the military power it is today.
Another key difference is that during the Munich talks, there was no urgency to stop an invasion already under way; during the Minsk talks, the Ukrainian military was being butchered and Russian/pro-Russian forces were making daily gains.

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More from @Bershidsky

Mar 31
There are cultures in which it matters what you are, and those where it matters whose you are.
I come from one of the latter cultures, and I've spent a lifetime trying to break out -- but I'll always ask the "whose" question first.
The answer tells me a lot about the reasons you're saying what you're saying. The progress I've made, however, is best described as the benefit of the doubt.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 15
A lot of people seem to be keeping their fingers crossed for a senior Putin regime figure to break ranks and head up the resistance, for Putin propagandists to turn against him. I saw it all before ->
In the years just before the Soviet Union collapsed, and again during the first Chechen war, Westerners and the liberal public was especially happy to welcome important turncoats from the Party Central Committee, then dissenting generals.
Somehow they are perceived as more important than consistent dissidents, those who never worked for the regime. They just aren't successful enough, they're losers and whiners.
Read 16 tweets
Mar 13
Remember the point of no return? That moment when Putin could have stopped at the recognition of the fake "people's republics" up to the old contact line? ->
None of this would have happened -- the thousands of murdered civilians, the millions of refugees ->
the Europeans raising their military budgets, the analysts trying to explain why they overestimated the Russian military ->
Read 7 tweets
Mar 13
"Let's not turn our back on decent Russians" is a double entendre these days. Turn your back -- and who knows if we have the decency not to stab you. ->
There's a surfeit of Russian people who scream loudly "I'm against the war," especially if they've ended up in the West. But, unlike the Ukrainian refugees, few of us actually had to run to save our lives.
Many of those sudden pacifists were fine with the regime before the invasion.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 13
The shape of a peace treaty? One can get first glimpses here: kommersant.ru/doc/5252292 🧵
"Denazification" is the least important Putin demand which Ukraine may even satisfy by demonstrating it already has sufficient legislation banning the glorification of Nazism.
"Demilitarization" means some kind if ban on UA offensive weapons, which Ukraine is ready to accept in return for multilateral security guarantees; that might work.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 12
People I respect as Russia experts -- Kotkin, Sam Greene -- argue that Putin has miscalculated, i.e. that he's dumb. I'm surprised, and I disagree. ->
Do you recall any other miscalculations this big in his 22 years in office? Has he ever given anyone a reason to consider him stupid? Evil, yes; dumb? Hardly. ->
I've also read the argument that he's "rational within his own delusional worldview". That is nonsense; a paranoid schizophrenic is "rational within his delusion". ->
Read 8 tweets

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