Люди, услужливо вставлявшие в свои тексты хрень про "запрещенные организации" и "иноагентов", теперь понаехали тут, считают себя героями-изгнанниками и пытаются создавать эмигрантскую прессу (в которой, как обычно, больше главредов, чем репортеров) на донаты и гранты. Ну-ну. Донаты -- это милостыня. Гранты имеют условия, иногда неочевидные. СМИ должно быть мало, а репортеров много. Только редактор должен иметь право вставить что-то в журналистский текст. Вы "попытались что-то исправить" после 2014? Надеюсь, вам нравится результат.

If you blame Merkel for helping engineer the Minsk agreements, if you compare her with Chamberlain in Munich, you must have been born after 2015. If those deals hadn't been made, the Russian military would have steamrolled over a nearly defenseless Ukraine back then. The Ukrainian leadership of the time was frightened, lost, inexperienced. It had just given up Crimea in a helpless panic. The Ukrainian military had been destroyed by years of underfunding and corruption. It suffered a few horrible defeats.

There are cultures in which it matters what you are, and those where it matters whose you are. I come from one of the latter cultures, and I've spent a lifetime trying to break out -- but I'll always ask the "whose" question first.

A lot of people seem to be keeping their fingers crossed for a senior Putin regime figure to break ranks and head up the resistance, for Putin propagandists to turn against him. I saw it all before -> In the years just before the Soviet Union collapsed, and again during the first Chechen war, Westerners and the liberal public was especially happy to welcome important turncoats from the Party Central Committee, then dissenting generals.

Remember the point of no return? That moment when Putin could have stopped at the recognition of the fake "people's republics" up to the old contact line? -> None of this would have happened -- the thousands of murdered civilians, the millions of refugees ->

"Let's not turn our back on decent Russians" is a double entendre these days. Turn your back -- and who knows if we have the decency not to stab you. -> There's a surfeit of Russian people who scream loudly "I'm against the war," especially if they've ended up in the West. But, unlike the Ukrainian refugees, few of us actually had to run to save our lives.

The shape of a peace treaty? One can get first glimpses here: kommersant.ru/doc/5252292 🧵 "Denazification" is the least important Putin demand which Ukraine may even satisfy by demonstrating it already has sufficient legislation banning the glorification of Nazism.

People I respect as Russia experts -- Kotkin, Sam Greene -- argue that Putin has miscalculated, i.e. that he's dumb. I'm surprised, and I disagree. -> Do you recall any other miscalculations this big in his 22 years in office? Has he ever given anyone a reason to consider him stupid? Evil, yes; dumb? Hardly. ->

The pessimistic scenario:
The best Ukrainian forces are encircled in the East. Russian forces cut off supply line to major cities, conduct regular air raids. The UA govt is forced into a humiliating peace, Russia disarms it; the east of the country, part of the south is lost.-> Putin is still there, the Russian economy is forced into autarky and a total dependence on China where autarky is impossible. Living standards fall steeply, emigration -- but no longer to the West -- steps up sharply. ->

Interesting how the military analysts who correctly predicted the invasion were wrong about the ability of the Russian military to get quick results. It's just a different version of the error I, for one, made by not believing in the invasion: an assumption of rationality. The rational mil analyst supposes that as troops are massed on a border for months, they are prepared for an invasion, pepped up, told clearly what their tasks are. But this clearly didn't happen.

For all the noise from the West, Ukraine still fights alone. Day 4. Despite Crazydent Putin's mad assumption that the invaders would be met with flowers, the Russian military appears to have a semblance of a plan for the real world. They are moving from the east and south to encircle Ukraine's best forces along the old contact line.

It does look like Putin didn't count on much resistance. Thought Russian troops would be met if not with flowers, then with indifference and resignation. Had nothing but contempt fot UA troops, for Zelenskiy, thought they'd be scared to death and surrender. Another sign of irrationality, wishful thinking with disgraceful, deadly, indelible consequences.

If Putin does attack, the presumption of his rationality, which has been part of my analysis of his actions for the last 23 years, not just the past few weeks, will need to be thrown out the window. Because an all-out attack on Ukraine solves no problems for him but creates a myriad of new ones.

The "Putin didn't need all these troops to recognize L/DNR" take misses not one but several points: Firstly, he needed maximum pressure to see if he could enforce Minsk. That failed, but not for lack of trying.

I've been predicting the recognition of L/DNR pretty much since this crisis started. But this is not how it ends. The moment of truth comes when regular Russian troops reach the contact line. There are no good moves for Ukraine in this situation. Zelenskiy can avert a big war by sacrificing his presidency. That's more or less it.

Let's think for a moment what it would mean to have regular Russian troops officially on the contact line. If Ukrainians shoot at them, an all-out war is all but certain, missile strikes, bombings and all.

So the Olympics are over, and by now I've read a few hundred "OSINT" tweets based on Ukrainian infowarriors' tweets with blurry videos of some tanks moving God knows where. I've read dozens of U.S. news reports based on "intelligence assessments" and "officials'" utterances claiming that Russia is preparing a tank offensive and strikes on Ukrainian cities.

I keep reading that Chancellor N [fill in name] refuses to lead, usually meaning Herr/Frau/Herr Dr./Frau Dr. N hates the idea of sending weapons or troops further than Mecklenburg Vorpommern or Saarland. That's one of the many reasons I feel at home in Germany. Sonetimes the "lack of leadership" charge refers to reluctance to give away lots of money, or to do whatever fits with the current U.S. administration's agenda.

Russian journalists' comments on Muratov's Nobel Piece Prize confirm that it sent the wrong message, especially to Moscow's numerous Stockholm syndrome sufferers. I've never read so many paeans to the virtues of collaboration.

Я не пишу в фейсбук и потому не могу ответить там Наташе Ростовой и другим насчет Муратова и Новой. Песочница, конечно, поголовно со мной не согласна -- это не в первый раз и неважно, в последний ли. Но надо понимать, что Муратову дали премию не за то, что Новая -- это на самом деле крутая благотворительная организация. За журналистику дали, что следует из объявления.