Ray Dalio Profile picture
Jun 9 6 tweets 2 min read
Over the last few years, three big things that hadn't happened in my lifetime prompted me to do the study that led me to publish Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order. (1/6)
First, countries didn't have enough money to pay their debts, even after lowering interest rates to zero. So, their central banks began printing lots of money to do so. (2/6)
Second, big internal conflicts emerged due to growing gaps in wealth and values. This showed up in political populism and polarization between the left, who want to redistribute wealth, and the right, who want to defend those holding the wealth. (3/6)
And third, increasing external conflict between a rising great power and the leading great power, as is now happening with China and the United States. (4/6)
So, I looked back. I saw that all these had happened together before many times and nearly always led to changing domestic and world orders. (5/6)
You can watch my free video on the Changing World Order to learn more and understand how the past can teach us about what’s happening now: #changingworldorder (6/6)

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More from @RayDalio

Jun 5
By recognizing the higher-level consequences nature optimizes for, I've come to see that people who overweight the first-order consequences of their decisions and ignore the effects of second- and subsequent-order consequences rarely reach their goals. (1/4) Image
This is because first-order consequences often have opposite desirabilities from second-order consequences, resulting in big mistakes in decision making. (2/4)
For example, the first-order consequences of exercise (pain and time spent) are commonly considered undesirable, while the second order consequences (better health and more attractive appearance) are desirable. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets
Jun 4
In my own life, what I want to give to people, most importantly to people I love, is the power to deal with reality to get what they want. (1/6)
In pursuit of my goal to give them strength, I will often deny them what they “want” because that will give them the opportunity to struggle so that they can develop the strength to get what they want on their own. (2/6)
This can be difficult for people emotionally, even if they understand intellectually that having difficulties is the exercise they need to grow strong and that just giving them what they want will weaken them and ultimately lead to them needing more help. (3/6)
Read 6 tweets
Jun 1
As I described in my book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, I feed data into a computer programmed to produce automated reports on the conditions of, and long-term prospects for, the world’s leading countries. (1/9)
I use these outputs to supplement my own thinking and other computer models I run to help me understand the world. (2/9)
In my book I showed the computerized assessment of 11 major powers and promised to share updated versions for 24 countries—those in the G20 plus others that scored as notable global powers—at least annually on economicprinciples.org. That’s what I’m now doing. (3/9)
Read 9 tweets
May 24
As a global macro-investor for over 50 years, I’ve spent a lot of time studying what makes countries healthy and unhealthy, and observing how the decisions made by policymakers impact the trajectories of their countries. (1/5)
I like to quantitatively measure those forces so I can build systems for making decisions better. For that reason, I converted my learnings into measures and models that show each country’s strengths and weaknesses, or what I call their “powers.” (2/5)
I measure 18 different types of powers, in 18 different indices, which are each made up of many indicators. These power indices measure the strengths of influences such as education, innovation and technology development, the civility of the people, economic output... (3/5)
Read 5 tweets
May 23
I’m at a stage in my life where my goal is to pass what I’ve learned along to others, and I often get asked for my advice for young people in particular. (1/9)
One thing that has helped me is an exercise to help put your life in perspective and to plan for the future to help you get the life you want. (2/9)
As you know, I have found that most everything happens over and over again for pretty much the same reasons, so in order to understand anything, it pays to understand how a typical case unfolds and observe the cause-effect relationships that make it unfold that way. (3/9)
Read 9 tweets
May 20
I want to help you come up with your own great principles that are tailored to you—and to have you write them down so you can easily refer to them and share them with others. (1/4)
In the five years since I published Principles, I’ve had thousands of great interactions with people who told me how life-changing the approach described in the book has been for them. Many asked me for advice on how to come up with their own principles. (2/4)
So I’m excited to announce that later this year I’ll be putting out Principles: Your Guided Journal, which will help develop your own great principles for dealing with reality well. I know from my own experience that doing so is responsible for whatever success I’ve had. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets

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