Thread by @sumlenny

THREAD “Russia will not attack the West because Moscow was not capable to occupy Ukraine” is a very wrong + illogical statement. Let me explain why
1) Russian state is switched into its war mode. It is not a short-term military operation, it is a permanent war what Russians live;

2) Since Chechen wars in 1994-2009, Russia was involved in at least 3 wars: Georgia, Syria, Ukraine. Out of these three, every next one was more bloody and brutal, what is logical: barriers for violence have fallen in Russian society. Russians are not expecting a fast victory now

3) The Russian concept of aggressive wars is extremely colonial. From the Russian perspective, it is logical to send “subhumans” to die on front. In the current war, we see ethnic minorities over-represented among Russian troops. Their losses pro 100,000 are sometimes 100x higher

4) Now let us look closer: in no war since Georgia 2008, Russia has reached its goals. Tbilisi was not taken in 2008, Novorossia was not created in 2014-15, Kyiv was not taken in 2022. Did it stop Russia from further attacks? No! And this has its clear logic!

5) As Russian wars are colonial, Russia gets stronger even after it doesn’t fulfill its goals. As Buryatia (occupied over 100 years ago) provided Russia with grinder meat, occupied Chechen Republic provided Russians with Kadyrovtsi - terror squads. The same happens now in “LDNR”

6) Russians forcefully conscript every male in occupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and send them to death on frontline. Males get arrested in the streets, put in uniforms, provided with a WWI rifle and send to the front. Russians don’t care how many Ukrainians will die;

7) As Putin is a life-time dictator, his inability to occupy the whole Ukraine in 2014 was not a defeat, but just a delay. He has not lost his power, but got provided with strategically important Crimea (launch positions) and resources (grinder meat). Kherson expects the same;

8) In the WWII, Ukrainians were the most important manpower of Red Army. Soviet top ace Kozhedub, ace sniper Pavlichenko, ace pilot Amed-Khan were Ukrainians or Crimea Tatars. Moscow has occupied Ukraine, conscripted Ukrainians and sent them to death. This is what they do;

9) If now Russia will not suffer a full defeat, it will just wait a year, brain-wash people in occupied territories and attack the rest of Ukraine again - with more grinder meat. And after it will repeat this trick with sending Kyiv and Vinnytsia makes to death in Poland;

10) Finalizing: Saying “Russia is too weak to attack the West, so we can ignore this threat” is at least a sign of stupid ignorance, and very likely a sign of (willingly or unwillingly) spreading Russian war propaganda. Don’t do it. /END

Wow, I am stunned and humbled by @TextyOrgUa decision to translate this thread and publish it as a column, highly appreciated! Thank you and Слава Україні! texty.org.ua/fragments/1069…