Thread by @imetatronink

🧵Ukraine War Summary – June 10, 2022

Reports now emerging that Ukrainian troops trapped in the industrial zone of Severodonetsk are seeking dialogue pursuant to surrender. Meanwhile all AFU resistance in the Donbas is rapidly collapsing.

Let’s review what led us here:

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The US spent eight long years and billions of dollars attempting to turn Ukraine into a radicalized proxy army they believed could deal an existential blow against Putin and Russian geopolitical resurgence. It was made into the largest and best-armed army in Europe.

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The US knew this would become a provocation the Russians could not abide. And yet Putin was extremely patient, until the US persuaded Ukraine in late 2021 they were now powerful enough to reclaim the Donbas and Crimea, which they began to position to do.

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Of course, this forced Putin’s hand, since the Lugansk and Donetsk republics were not sufficiently powerful to resist the massive force being arrayed against them in eastern Ukraine. Russian forces were therefore arrayed in an arc from Belarus to Crimea.

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On February 24th, Putin presented, in detail, the Russian case for a “special military operation”, the objectives of which were to secure the Donbas, and then to “demilitarize” and “denazify” Ukraine once and for all.

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And so the war commenced.

Although Russia dealt severe blows to Ukrainian air power in the first few hours of hostilities, I think the Russians were genuinely surprised by Ukrainian competence and firepower … for about a week. No more.

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Contrary to immense volumes of western propaganda, the evidence is incontrovertible that Russia’s overall strategy was ALWAYS to execute a “feint and fix” in Kiev and Kharkov, in order to pin down 100k+ Ukrainian troops and thousands of units of armor and artillery.

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Their Stage 1 objective was clearly, from the beginning, to conquer a swath of Lugansk and Donetsk down to and including Mariupol and the Azov coast; to take total control of the Sea of Azov, and fix Ukrainian troops in the east as they “shaped the battlefield” for Stage 2.

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This objective also included securing the land bridge to Crimea, which was accomplished relatively soon in operational terms, although it is only fairly recently that full control of the land bridge has been consolidated.

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In tactical terms, the Russians almost immediately commenced maneuvers designed to slice up and isolate Ukrainian forces in the Donbas; to “shape the battlefield” in the form of numerous “cauldrons” that they have then systematically destroyed in detail.

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More of these cauldrons remain.

But the results to-date have been utterly devastating to Ukrainian military power. At least 10,000 troops (probably closer to 20k), and all their equipment, were utterly destroyed in Mariupol – supposedly the “cream” of the AFU.

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And now, over the course of the past several weeks, the other Ukrainian formation of supposedly “elite” troops – many 10s of 1000s in fortified positions – has been viciously savaged in the Donbas: many thousands of KIA, WIA, and POWs; their heavy weapons and mobility gone.

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The last month has been a slaughter in crescendo, and it's only going to get worse going forward. The outcome of this war is set in stone. The entire EU *knows* this to be true.

And so does the Ukrainian high command.

From here on, it’s all just senseless carnage.

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Furthermore, there can be no doubt the Pentagon and US intelligence agencies know *exactly* what the score is, and I think they are absolutely stunned by how comprehensively the Russians have destroyed Ukrainian military capacity.

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They also know that the tall tales of massive Russian losses of armor and personnel are ridiculous propaganda. Sure, the Russians have suffered casualties – they are, after all, fighting a well-armed and deeply entrenched enemy.

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But for the past several weeks they have methodically maneuvered their forces in order to pin AFU troops in their fortifications, and then brought to bear their massive artillery and air power to annihilate them trench by trench, with little risk to troops or equipment.

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Russian battlefield losses in the Battle of the Donbas have been a mere fraction of those they have inflicted on Ukrainian forces – likely on the order of 10 to 1. Hundreds of AFU troops are being killed every single day; more are deserting; morale has been annihilated.

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Contrary to the nonsensical “analysis” emerging from the western think-tank/OSINT clown show, the Russians have prosecuted this war with impressive skill and discipline – especially the manner in which they have systematically dismantled the extensive AFU fortifications.

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I also believe the US/NATO understands that they have now, inadvertently, transformed the Russian military into a battle-hardened force that took on a larger/better army than ANY the US has faced since WW2, and has soundly whipped them.

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The US/NATO will NOT be intervening in this war – unless the #EmpireAtAllCosts fanatics somehow manage to obtain control of the Pentagon, which I currently consider to be very unlikely – for the simple reason that it would be disastrous.

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If the US attempts to lock horns with the Russians in Ukraine, or elsewhere, I am convinced it will be a shocking catastrophe for US forces, with dozens or hundreds of destroyed aircraft and dozens of sunken ships.

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It must be understood that the US has not experienced true “high-intensity conflict” since WW2. Vietnam came close in some respects, but they faced no massed 21st century artillery there – nor anywhere at any time.

The Russians are masters of artillery.

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Nor has the US *ever* faced the sort of air defense they would see in a fight against Russia. We would quickly find out that Tomahawks, B-2s, F-22s, and F-35s are a LOT more vulnerable than we’ve been led to believe – not to mention 4th generation US aircraft.

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We just have to hope the Pentagon cannot be persuaded to “give it a try”. If they do, then we'll need to pray mightily the US doesn't go #BatshitCrazy and start pushing nuclear buttons in a fit of humiliated desperation.

24/end