🧵 Ukrainian Insurgency?

I have commented since February 23, 2022 on the question of the Banderite remnants of Ukraine prosecuting a protracted insurgency in the face of a decisive Russian military victory.

Here is a selection of those posts:

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https://x.com/imetatronink/status/1496675918164623364

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https://x.com/imetatronink/status/1615893820494991362

⚡️🧵 I missed this excellent thread when it was first posted.

Alexander always has well-written, insightful things to say.

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https://twitter.com/AlexanderGRubi2/status/1797587455266222391

Of course, I've been writing this same topic for several years now:

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https://x.com/imetatronink/status/1774076852099051985

🧵The Object of War

Over the past two days, many have commented on the excellent article linked below, authored by Lt. Col. (ret) Alex Vershinin.

I read it earlier today, and I highly recommend it.

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rusi.org/explore-our-re… Those who have followed me for any length time know I have been writing on this topic since the early days of the war in Ukraine:

Destroying the Mother of All Proxy Armies in Ukraine



2/imetatronink.substack.com/p/destroying-m…

Good thread. It aligns with many things I have been writing about for the past few years, both here on Twitter/X and on my substack blog.

I think I am considerably more dubious of the strength of the US surface fleet, and particularly in terms of its capability to project power across the globe against any of its formidable potential adversaries.

If you have a few minutes and are so inclined, I'll link to a couple of my blog posts in replies to this post. 📜 Dinosaurs of the Deep Blue Sea

imetatronink.substack.com/p/dinosaurs-of…

🧵 Totalitarian America?

A great many Americans believe totalitarian rule could be and soon will be imposed in the United States. I have frequently addressed this question over the years. I have assembled a thread of representative posts below.

0/13 1/13

https://x.com/imetatronink/status/1078696830152564736?s=20

🧵 Thread of old tweets about the brilliant Kary Mullis, Nobel Prize-winning inventor of PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) -- the so-called "test" for detecting things like SARS-COV-2.

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https://twitter.com/imetatronink/status/1337529985985179651?t=o3JlDChJblxnEeAQYqPejg&s=19

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https://twitter.com/imetatronink/status/1337799169742794754?t=o3JlDChJblxnEeAQYqPejg&s=19

Short 🧵

Many commenters have suggested that Prigozhin's excoriation of Russian leadership (and regular army) will serve to demoralize the remainder of Russian forces fighting in Ukraine.

This is, I am convinced, a conclusion entirely misconceived.

1/6 The host of Russian regulars is, I am strongly persuaded, heartily sick and tired of hearing the popular narrative of Wagner “winning the war for Russia” and Prigozhin’s frequent unwarranted monopolization of quasi-exclusive credit for Russian successes in this war.

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Short 🧵

In my view, there is effectively zero possibility the Ukrainians can sustain a credible offensive against Russian forces, and when it fails, the Russians will then move to seize the remainder of the four oblasts that have already approved referenda to join Russia.

1/4 In fact, as I have repeatedly argued since February 27, 2022, the Russians are almost certain to reclaim all of historical Novorossiya to the Danube – likely including Transnistria.

And there will be little the AFU will be able to do to impede them.

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@Jimmyjude13 🧵Russia Has Been Winning This War All Along — And Winning it Big

I've written extensively on this question since it became apparent the Russians had eviscerated the original AFU by late spring 2022.

One of my earliest articles explains in detail:

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imetatronink.substack.com/p/destroying-m… @Jimmyjude13 A few weeks after I published that seminal blog post, the legendary USMC general, Paul K. Van Riper (with a few others) published in the Marine Corps Gazette a highly controversial analysis of the war which affirmed most of what I had written in July.

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imetatronink.substack.com/p/a-former-us-…

🧵Ukraine War Update

Once it became clear the Russians had no intention to launch a winter offensive, I’ve steadily come to believe they concluded no later than summer 2022 that they must prioritize preparations to face a possible direct NATO intervention in this war.

1/23 I am increasingly persuaded the introduction of the American “wunderwaffen” (M-777 and HIMARS) has overridingly influenced Russian prosecution of this war – not on account of these particular systems’ battlefield efficacy – but by what they symbolized:

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🧵Nothing As It Seems

It appears the madness in the empire’s star chambers has been cranked to 11, and they have gone and royally beclowned themselves with this “document leak” PSYOP.

And make no mistake, a PSYOP is precisely what we are dealing with here.

1/ Not only is it inarguably a PSYOP, but it is one that must have been conceived at the highest levels of the ruling junta.

How do we know this?

BECAUSE THE REACTION OF ALL THE EMPIRE’S POWER APPARATUS HAS BEEN TIGHTLY COORDINATED AND CAREFULLY SCRIPTED!

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Short🧵

The always-excellent Big Serge (@witte_sergei) presents his take on the "leaked" Ukraine War order of battle documents.

I cannot yet bring myself to accept his overarching conclusions regarding them.

But his analysis is still a must-read.

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bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrain… I personally find it inconceivable that the Pentagon is *truly* relying upon OSINT and other such dubious intelligence.

But that doesn’t mean they don’t have some reason to give the impression that is true as part of a misinformation gambit.

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Short 🧵

It is increasingly obvious the empire's military "brain trust" understands it lacks the wherewithal to fight Russia in Ukraine.

I worry they may believe the big problem is they can't bring to bear the allegedly awesome power of the US Navy.

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imetatronink.substack.com/p/the-united-s… They know carrier groups operating in the Baltic, Mediterranean, or Black seas would be acutely vulnerable to Russian strengths.

Nor is a fight against Iran a plausible alternative. The Persian Gulf would be a death trap.

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imetatronink.substack.com/p/lessons-neve…

Left alone to get gigantic
Hard huge and haunted
A generation so much dumber than its parents
Came crashing through the window

Short🧵

I've been following the news emerging out of Syria. All that seems certain at this point is that something "bigger than usual" has happened, and there are some US casualties.

There is talk of several dozen "rocket" strikes, which suggests a locally based attack.

1/ The question now is how the US will respond. They don’t have sufficient ground forces in the region to engage in any sort of “punitive” counterinsurgency action. So, as per usual, it will be airstrikes. But against whom, and where?

Syria?

Iraq?

Iran?!

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Short 🧵

My brief commentary on the Wagner PMC/RF MoD tempest in a teapot:

I am strongly inclined to believe it is Russian maskirovka designed to lure the AFU to pump more forces into the closing jaws of the Bakhmut cauldron.

1/ I believe “Wagner PMC” is and always has been acting hand-in-glove with the Russian Ministry of Defense. I do not believe the “Wagner PMC” is what its popular image would suggest. More than likely it is a “shell company”, so to speak, for official Russian policy.

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🧵Thread Revisit

I’m on a Twitter hiatus in recent days to gather my thoughts without distraction. But I was reminded of this thread this afternoon and thought it worth revisiting.

Original post linked here; several of my replies further below.

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https://twitter.com/dpinsen/status/1608702581056110593?s=20&t=s_BQ8XtNcceEeEucrhd-Ig

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https://twitter.com/imetatronink/status/1608859569836691456?s=20&t=s_BQ8XtNcceEeEucrhd-Ig

Short🧵

This article correctly underscores the potency of air-denial tactics in a 21st century great power or near-peer conflict.

But it devolves into utter nonsense propaganda when it speaks of AFU air successes in Ukraine.

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warontherocks.com/2023/02/the-so… Not only has AFU air defense been woefully crippled since the early days of this war, but its offensive air power has been effectively nonexistent.

The original inventory of Ukrainian Air Force fighter and attack aircraft is long-since destroyed.

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Music 🧵

I pledged to publish a new article today.

I won't.

I've worked on it all day long. It became more ambitious than I first planned. Maybe tomorrow.

For now I'm taking a break with some of my all-time favorite guitar soloists.

Johnny Hickman:
Terry Kath:

@oloos878787 @SydneyFreedberg @HuntClancy @siberiancattt Response🧵

Iraq 1991 was all about seizing post-Soviet strategic dominance (and permanent bases) in the Gulf region; securing the petrodollar system, and greatly weakening the no-longer-useful Iraqi army the empire supported to fight against Iran.

1/ @oloos878787 @SydneyFreedberg @HuntClancy @siberiancattt Iraq 2003 was about: 1) ostentatiously employing an iron fist against even more potent emerging threats to the global dollar system – in particular Iraq’s gambit to sell its oil for Euros and gold; 2) menace and contain a greatly strengthening Iran.

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@SydneyFreedberg Response🧵

That's a pretty mediocre strawman construction.

In any case, I never suggested the US/NATO are "dangerous" -- except to themselves and Ukraine.

NATO built its Mother of All Proxy Armies in Ukraine to harm Russia, which has responded by destroying it.

1/12 @SydneyFreedberg The original, very formidable AFU was wrecked by July. The second, much smaller and more poorly equipped NATO/AFU hybrid army has now been wrecked, necessitating this current attempt to cobble together a third, which will be substantially weaker than the previous two.

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