"Attrition is not a strategy. It is, in fact, irrefutable proof of the absence of any strategy. A commander who resorts to attrition admits his failure to conceive an alternative. He [..] accepts war on the most non-professional terms imaginable. He uses blood in lieu of brains."
This lesson from the Vietnam war should be heeded by western and Ukraine leaders as well. Right now the war in Ukraine is a blood bath because there is no strategy on both sides and because the West does not supply the Ukraine with weapons in a way that leaves many options.
Claiming to lead a "war of attrition" also was generally being used as an excuse for failed offensives or a lack of offensive capability. You also can not win a war by attrition only; you have to perform a successful offensive at some point.
The calculation or "strategy" of western leaders right now seems to be to keep both Russia and the Ukraine from winning anytime soon. The Ukraine does neither receive modern aircraft nor battle tanks and no long range missiles or artillery.
Instead we and our leaders watch hundreds Ukrainians and Russians die every day, with no strategy in place how to gain control over events and bring that conflict to an end.
Without one side gaining a significant advantage, the war might go on for many years, and any side can "win" such a long lasting war. Russia will not stop until it loses or wins, and Ukraine will not stop until it loses or wins, whatever the definition of losing or winning is.
Also the sanctions do not seem to do anything so far, at least they do not seem to have any significant impact on Russia's capabilities or will to fight, and my guess is they won't - at least not to a degree that matters.
Without the West supplying the Ukraine with the weapons it needs to win, the sanctions are useless and hurt us a lot. Russia's direct costs of war are about 300 Mio. € or $ per day, and the sanctions are estimated to shrink the Russian GDP by 10-20%, 400-800 Mio./day.
Germany alone loses 200 Mio. GDP per day due to higher energy prices, and all NATO-countries together billions every day. I would estimate that the cost of sanctions for the West is about 5-10 times as much as for Russia in absolute terms, and about the same in relative terms.
Our political leaders are wasting a lot of our money and Ukrainian blood with no apparent strategy. Or maybe they have a great strategy and are not sharing it with us, like Russia. Attrition is not a strategy though, but a stupid recipe for a long, expensive blood bath.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
