After 6 months of Delta dominance, last weekend would have seen BA.2 lose its dominance - overtaken by a combination of BA.4, BA.5, BA.2.12.1 & BA.5.1 3/xx
BA.2.12.1, BA.4 and BA.5 are all at similar levels - BA.5.1 (a child of BA.5) is a new kid on the block but growing fast. It's now dominant in portugal.
Together BA.5/5.1 likely to win out...?
4/xx
This is NOT a surprise! I & others have been talking about this for weeks.
It's just that govt and others have lost any interest in doing anything about it. It's kind of frustrating to now see headlines "new wave on its way" - it's been on its way for weeks! 5/xx
Dominance doesn't necessarily mean a big new wave. But let's compare last 2 Omicron waves & ONS infection survey prevalence.
We can see that prevalence was at it lowest just at variant crossover in Feb. Looks like same thing happening now with small uptick in latest ONS. 6/xx
Good news is that prevalence is a lot lower than in Feb, so we are starting from a lower base. It is also possible that BA.2 wave will provide some protection and mean we get a smaller wave. But we will get a wave.
Esp as Jubilee weekend was just as crossover happened. 7/xx
Can we learn from other countries? Well, S.Africa had a much smaller BA.4/5 wave than its first Omicron wave.
Portugal currently has a BA.5/5.1 wave and it's as at least as big as its first Omicron wave. 8/xx
But different countries now have had very different pandemic trajectories and that means it is hard to know what will happen. We will be first big country I think to have BA.4/5 wave after big BA.2 wave. 9/xx
While vax gives similar protection against BA.4/5 than prev Omicron variants (@PeacockFlu ), almost everyone in UK is now several months out from their booster.
Over 75s should be well protected esp against severe disease from sring booster & (sadly) high BA.2 infections. 10/xx
We're not really doing any vaccinations now. 2/3 of pop have had a 3rd dose, but many remain unvaccinated - especially children. This could be an issue - esp in primary school kids - if BA4/5 get into schools this half term. 11/xx
We're also (still) going into this wave with differential protection. People in more deprived areas are much less likely to be vaccinated and boosted - and it's much starker in kids than adults. 12/xx
So infections. ONS infection survey shows that prevalence has stopped falling & might be rising across UK w/e 2 June. In England, ⬆️in teens, young adults & 35-69 yr olds.
Hosp admissions are going up in England (from lower base than Feb). The wave has (just) started. 13/xx
Deaths are still falling and it's much too early to see any signal in deaths from the latest wave. Hopefully eventual peak in deaths will be quite a bit lower than previous 2 Omicron waves, esp after spring booster in 75s+
14/xx
The new wave does mean there will be yet more people developing Long Covid. ONS data shows that Long Covid has *not* gone away in the age of Omicron, triple vax & prev infection. 15/xx
Highest long covid increases in Omicron have been in older adults. And we're seeing highest rates in social care, health care & teaching.
Just today, @TimesEducation reported that *over a third* of secondary schools struggling with long covid in teachers. 16/xx
If we are going to have waves every few months, we need to do something *sustainable* to reduce transmission. It's an airborne virus and spreads far more easily indoors and we need to address that.
Mask wearing is (unsurprisingly) dropping off - esp in younger adults. 17/xx
There has been increasing evidence coming out about how talking & singing give off more virus-containing aersols and how intense indoor exercise is also a big risk. 18/xx
But there are solutions! It's not only about masks - esp where they are impractical in restaurants/pubs/gyms... We have solutions! 19/xx
As these authors put it "A once-in-decades opportunity now exists to make sustained improvements to public and private indoor air quality" 20/xx
We spent billions on (often wasted!) PPE, on (successful) vaccines, millions on the UK ventilator challenge. We need that commitment now.
2 years later, let's have a UK Ventilation Challenge instead of the Ventilator Challenge. 21/21
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The pandemic is as bad as it ever was for babies - in year to Aug 2023, 6,300 babies under 1 were admitted to hospital wholly or partly BECAUSE of Covid.
They are ONLY age group where admissions have NOT gone down over time 1/17
Our study, led by Prof @katebrown220, looked at all hospitalisations in England in children with a Covid diagnosis or positive test from Aug 2020-Aug 2023.
We then *excluded* all admissions where a Covid diagnosis was incidental (ie not why they were in hospital)
2/17
Infants (babies under 1) are generally at higher risk from respiratory infections, plus they are the age group that, if infected, are overwhelmingly meeting the virus for the first time.
They are not vaccinated and have not had it before. 3/17
Prof @Kevin_Fong giving the most devastating and moving testimony to the Covid Inquiry of visiting hospital intensive care units at the height of the second wave in late Dec 2020.
The unimaginable scale of death, the trauma, the loss of hope.
Please watch this 2min clip.
And here he breaks down while explaining the absolute trauma experienced by smaller hospitals in particular - the "healthier" ICU patients were transferred out, leaving them coping with so much death.
They felt so alone.
Here Prof Fong explains how every nurse he met was traumatised by watching patients die, being only able to hold up ipads to their relatives and how it went against their normal practice of trying to ensure a dignified death, with family there.
🧵War causes direct civilian deaths but also indirect deaths over the following years.
Recent paper estimates eventual total direct & indirect deaths in Gaza attributable to the war - 10% of entire pop'n.
I want to explain these estimates and why deaths must be counted. 1/13
Why count casualties from war anyway? For moral, legal and strategic reasons.
1 - owe it to those who have died
2 - International law says must count & identify dead as far as possible
3 - monitor progress of war & learn from tactics
2/13
There are direct and indirect casualties of war. Direct deaths include those who killed by fighting or bombs.
Indirect deaths are those that die when they would otherwise have lived because of one or more of: lack of food, healthcare, housing, sanitation, income, hope. 3/13
THREAD: the summer Covid wave in the UK continues.
Basically, there is a LOT of Covid around and not a lot of other respiratory viruses.
If you have cold or flu symptoms, it's probably Covid.
The latest hospital data from England shows steady, quite high levels. 1/8
But admissions don't tell us how much virus is circulating more generally. The best (but imperfect) measure we have is wasterwater measurements, and only in Scotland and not England.
Scotland's wastewater is showing a huge July peak - highest since Omicron's 1st yr in 2022 2/8
Because different people shed different amounts of virus and variants can matter too, you can't for sure infer how many people were infected between different wasterwater peaks. BUT given the size, I'd say it's pretty likely this is the largest peak since 2022 in Scotland 3/8