Thread by @CollinSLKoh

Event thread: #SLD honoured to be a delegate at the 19th Shangri-La Dialogue, after a long Covid hiatus. Will be tweeting as much key snippets as possible in those sessions I attend. Please bear with me if I miss out details or share vaguely at times. 🙏🏼

First Plenary Session: Next Steps for the United States’ Indo-Pacific Strategy, by U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.

Austin: Countries across the IP share a common vision. Commitment to freedom of seas and skies; seeks peaceful resolution of disputes; countries are allowed to pursue own interests free from coercion.

Coercion of smaller states by larger neighbours, DPRK nuclear and missile threat, Myanmar crisis amongst various security threats requires IP countries to uphold commitments to rules-based order.

IP “at the heart of American grand strategy”. No region can set trajectory of future than IP. Future of region not written by any one country but by peoples of IP.

US commitments seen in rapid development of Quad, establishment of AUKUS, closer ties with S. Pacific island countries, climate commitments with ASEAN, etc.

Putin’s reckless war in Ukraine reminds us of need for international order rooted in mutual respect between states. Ukraine crisis poses urgent questions: do rules matter? Do sovereignty matters? Rules-based order in IP matters as much as in Europe.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: imperial appetites matter more than rights of peaceful neighbours. Dangers of disorder; need to unite for common purpose - strengthen rules-based international order. US stands firmly beside partners and to strengthen IP rules-based order.

Pentagon commitments to IP: Pacific Deterrence Initiative; increased focus on various domains eg cyber and space; high-end lasers. Integrated deterrence to center on US treaty allies; US remains unwavering on defense and security commitments.

Building and elevating defense and security partnerships, with India, Singapore, etc. To prevent disruption of status quo, strengthen ability to find common solutions to common challenges.

3 ways to promote cooperation: 1) work with partners and allies to get right capabilities to defend interests and deter aggression, including integration of key defense industrial supply chains and work with trusted partners to test game changing tech. AUKUS isn’t just subs.

2) exercises and trainings - deepens interoperability, steps up complexity, scope of exercises with allies and partners, eg. Ex Keen Sword, Ex Talisman Sabre; Ex Balikatan this year most complex ever with PH military; finding new constellation of partners including Europe.

Bilateral Indonesia-U.S. Ex Garuda Shield to expand for first time to involve 14 partners in August. Working with partners to deal with grey zone challenges, leveraging on all USG instruments including focus on USCG involvement; first time USCG commandant joins SLD.

3) defend shared principles. Commits to ASEAN centrality and foster rise of flexible security arrangements; including new bilateral defense and security dialogues; hope to bring new vigor to Quad. Quad eager to work with ASEAN and pacific island countries for shared interests.

To keep expanding consultations with European partners, cooperation with NATO and IP partners. UK “made history” in 2021 by deploying CSG21 to IP.

On DPRK: habitual provocations underscore need for security cooperation, strengthen extended nuclear deterrence, remains open to diplomacy, deter and defeat aggression.

PRC adopting more coercive and aggressive approach to claims. SCS militarisation, plundering resources in waters of other coastal states in SCS. Pentagon to maintain active presence; support 2016 arbitral award; US military to sail, fly and operate where intl law allows.

PRC unsafe behaviour at sea worrisome: lasing of AUS P-8, unsafe intercepts of AUS and CAN aircraft over. Categorically oppose change of TW strait status quo by either side. Uphold one China policy, commits to TW self-sustaining defense capabilities.

US policy towards TW straits doesn’t change but PRC does: increased flybys by PLA off Taiwan. PRC moves threaten to undermine IP peace and security. Maintaining TW strait peace and stability isn’t just US but global interest.

To defend interests unflinchingly but no intention to form IP version of NATO; believes great powers carry great responsibilities. Great powers should be models of transparency; to work on common sense guardrails with PRC to maintain peace and stability.

More inclusive in IP approach; building new habits of cooperation. Seeks inclusion not division, seeks cooperation not strife. Agrees with SG PM: no country should be forced to make a choice; should be free to choose. Future of IP shd be rooted in independence and freedom.

IP vision cannot be imposed but can be achieved via cooperation, consultations and partnerships.

Second Plenary Session: Managing Geopolitical Competition in a Multipolar Region, with Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto as first speaker.

Prabowo: struggle against colonialism reminds of Great Power competition; Asian way of resolving challenges, common experience of being dominated, enslaved and exploited to inspire creation of friendly environment despite interstate differences.

Need to strive for mutual understanding and communication to tackle interstate differences; nearly 50 years of peace and friendly cooperation and in achieving prosperity. Saddened by events in Europe; Ukraine war affects everyone including global food crisis.

China always been a great power for centuries. Cultural influences from China and India; respect great powers but also rules-based order; experience of colonialism “always in our subconsciousness” - Indonesia foreswears alliances.

So-called Indonesia “sitting on the fence” is deliberate, it’s part of Indonesia’s consciousness. Convinced that PRC leadership will stand up for Chinese philosophy to fulfil power responsibilities with benevolence. US had similar colonial experiences and supports Indonesia’s…

… fight for independence. Ukraine war shows cannot take peace and security for granted. Indonesia to defend its interests with every means at its disposal. Respects regional neighbours’ historical struggles against colonialism and foreign intervention, eg China and Vietnam.

Second plenary session with French Minister of the Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu as second speaker.

Lecornu: doesn’t desire use of force to resolve interstate differences as seen in the case of Ukraine war to become a “new standard” to international relations.

France as IP country has implemented an unprecedented strategy to tackle security challenges in the region. Expanding military deployments in IP, including months-long dispatch of nuclear powered attack sub to the region last year.

Constant permanent deployment of new ocean patrol vessels in Pacific by 2025. Not targeted any particular state, seeks to foster regional defense and security partnerships. To forge new military logistics sharing agreements in the region.

France remains committed to ASEAN; continues to seek to join ADMM+ to share defense and security expertise with regional partners. Inclusive and multilateral response based on international rules and norms should be the solution to regional challenges.

Second plenary session with Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi as final speaker.

Russia must be held accountable for the unprovoked aggression against Ukraine and mass killings of civilians in the theater. World is experiencing competition between countries seeking to preserve rules based order and those seeking to change status quo.

Steadfast defense by Ukraine and support from international community can blunt armed aggression. International community can support Ukraine even if located in distant regions from Europe; via imposition of sanctions against Russia, etc.

IP faces situation that is synonymous with what’s happened in Europe. Russia invading Ukraine while beefing up presence in Far East; PRC-Russia strategic nexus and joint military activities a cause for concern.

DPRK launching missiles at “unprecedentedly high rate” in recent years; missile and nuke development threatens Japan’s and regional security.

Japan consistently followed path of peace loving nation, pursues peaceful resolution of disputes based on international rules and norms. Japan “located right on the frontline” to protect rules based order.

To secure necessary defense budget, alliance with US serves as foundation of regional peace and stability; to not tolerate attempts to change status quo using unilateralism or use or threat of force.

Rule of law, freedom of navigation and overflight, free trade to buttress Free and Open Indo-Pacific. Japan fully supports ASEAN Outlook on Indo-Pacific which shares fundamental similarities with Tokyo’s notion of FOIP.

Cooperation with countries that seek to take advantage of and exploits weakness of their partners brings risks. ASEAN regional institutions such as ADMM+ increasingly important. Japan to promote cooperation with countries ours use region sharing fundamental values eg Europe.

Confident that international community can act as one if scenario similar to Europe emerges in IP that saw actors trying to flout rule of law and resort to force to change the status quo. Standing at “historic crossroads” to uphold rules based order.

Addendum to the second plenary session. I still struggle to understand what exactly constitutes the “Asian way”. Pak Prabowo had tried his best to address this question but I think it creates more questions than answers.

Apologies for not having to tweet on the third plenary session as I was off for some meetings. Now I’m tweeting the Fourth Plenary Session on Military Modernisation and New Defence Capabilities, first speaker Philippine Secretary of National Defense Delfin Lorenzana.

Emerging tech such as AI and 5G can improve C4ISR and cyber capabilities can be a force multiplier. Advancing tech for defense can also be used for civilian purposes. Provides opportunities for public-private partnerships.

Defense modernisation brings benefits to wider society beyond military deterrence- equipment can be utilised for HADR. Hope not to sleepwalk into conflict amidst the risks of arms race.

Next speaker of the Fourth Plenary Session: General Tea Banh, Cambodian Minister of National Defense.

Military modernisation and defence capability development is geared towards legitimate and just defense of national interest. Impt to utilise military capabilities for just and legitimate defense of national interests and provide public goods for mankind.

Use of sanctions in any form to punish anyone isn’t the right option to solve problems. Consequences won’t only affect the target of sanctions but also innocent people.

Cambodia to resolved to resolve disputes in peaceful manner and in accordance with international law, and to work towards “harmonised security”. Impt to maintain ASEAN centrality. Cambodia strictly adheres to key instruments such as BWC, CWC, SEANWFZ.

Cambodia’s modernisation of Ream naval base: Cambodia is independent and sovereign state that has right to decide on its destiny; Constitution doesn’t allow foreign military bases; Kingdom has right to receive foreign arms, ammunition and training to preserve national peace.

Cambodia finds repeated accusations over Ream naval base an insult to the kingdom; the facility doesn’t pose a security threat to anyone near or far abroad. Capability development of RCAF not just at Ream - more widespread military modernisation to allow fulfilment of tasks.

Cambodia has no intention of undermining other countries’ interests; only desires to live in peace and harmony with others; only interested in self-defense. RCAF modernisation is open to international support without prejudice to respect of mutual interests.

Final speaker for fourth plenary session: Vietnamese Minister of National Defense, General Phan Văn Giang.

Policy to ensure sufficient defense capabilities to fulfil national obligations. VPA building “whole people defense”; active in pandemic control, UN PKO; defense policy defensive nature. Vietnam not relying on solely improving military capabilities but leverage other tools.

Necessary to build VPA in terms of developing high quality Human Resources, develop a modern force structure and organisation; designate defense industry for both defense but socioeconomic development; “VPA ready for war, ready for work, ready for production.”

Vietnam defense is peaceful and self-defensive in nature. No plans to join any military alliances, not to allow foreign military bases in VN territory or to allow VN territory to be used to undermine other countries.

SCS: firmly and resolutely affirm commitment to peaceful solution to disputes; adherence to UNCLOS.

Cambodian minister Tea Banh expounds on questions on Ream: need to defend territorial seas, need to have proper naval base to safeguard Cambodia’s maritime interest. Grant aid from PRC shouldn’t be surprising; talk of exclusive access to PRC is not true.

Facilities for repairs can be used by any country and either civilian and military ships and not exclusive for use by any particular country or navy. Ream modernisation is nothing more than RCN modernisation and to allow the base to accommodate larger ships.

Special Address by President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Some of the defense chiefs including Austin appear to have taken time out of their hectic schedules of sideline meetings to attend, in an evident display of solidarity with Kyiv. Ballroom now crowded.

Fifth Plenary Session with PRC State Councilor and Minister of National Defense GEN Wei Fenghe. I’ll be listening to his speech in Mandarin and translate snippets simultaneously while tweeting.

Outlook on regional security: mankind faces multiple security challenges; Ukraine brings huge impact to the globe; development should be a common goal of mankind; interstate cooperation is the way to go.

Opposes smear (by Austin?) against PRC. In the face of global challenges, it’s necessary to unite and cooperate, instead of forming cliques and exclusive blocs; it’s important to oppose hegemony, promote equality amongst states big or small, and oppose zero sum mentality.

US forming exclusive cliques and pushing for confrontation. World shouldn’t be governed by one single power. Big shouldn’t bully small, oppose resort use of force and interference in domestic affairs of others, push for peaceful resolution of interstate disputes.

One should be free to choose own path of development based on own national needs. Unilateral openness isn’t true openness; everyone should strive for common interests and benefits. PRC seeks to inject “positive energy” into world developments.

PRC is a responsible great power who seeks peaceful development and seeks to be a contributor of common public goods. PRC is one of safest countries, one of those with lowest COVID death rate, not easy for a country for a large population.

PRC to strengthen pandemic cooperation with others, to fulfil obligations as a responsible great power. PRC’s development doesn’t pose a threat to anyone. Made historic achievement of eradicating absolute poverty. PRC and world are interdependent.

Preventing PRC’s development is impossible and unwise. PRC achievements didn’t come from exploitation, plunder of others. PRC will contribute more to common development of the world via Global Development Initiative.

PLA will adhere to the primary role of safeguarding PRC national sovereignty and territorial integrity. Historical experience of foreign aggression impresses upon the need to value peace. PRC adheres to defensive defense policy. Never occupies any foreign soil.

PRC doesn’t enter into any arms race. PLA has been and will continue to be a contributor to UN PKO. PLA doesn’t provoke but not fearful of others’ provocation; will resolutely retaliate against others’ provocation of PRC.

Xi’s Global Security Initiative: stresses common, cooperative and compressive security, opposes seeking of own security at the expense of others. PRC core interests should be respected by others.

Taiwan question is Chinese internal affairs. Peaceful reunification as the biggest wish; Taiwan question will be resolved by national rejuvenation of China. Any attempt to push Taiwan independence is bound to fail.

PRC doesn’t want to follow the footsteps of American Civil War; PRC will spare no cost to fight any attempt to separate Taiwan. Warn Taiwan separatists and foreign backers: seeking independence will meet a dead end. Don’t underestimate PLA resolve to defend sovereignty.

On SCS: situation has improved. Respects FON guaranteed by international law; PRC is biggest beneficiary and victim of FON. Opposes others using FON as pretext to flex military muscle in the SCS and meddle in the disputes.

Moves to cause rift, form cliques and provoke confrontation in SCS bound to fail. To continue to push Code of Conduct and practical cooperation in SCS.

Peaceful development of ties with the US is mutually beneficial; confrontation isn’t beneficial to both PRC and US and to world. Treating PRC as threat is a historic and strategic mistake.

PRC: mutual respect, peaceful coexistence important for ties with US. But if US wants confrontation, PRC is game to take on the challenge. PLA never fears war. PRC seeks to safeguard national interests and pride while seeking to build healthy ties with the U.S.

Ukraine war root cause: who is the “black hand” behind the conflict, who benefits the most, who’s pushing for peace instead of fighting? Imposing sanctions doesn’t solve problems, and only complicates the crisis. PRC pushing for dialogue and peace between PRC and Ukraine.

PLA will strive to work with foreign counterparts to achieve a community of shared future for all mankind.

Q&A: Wei on nuclear weapons policy: defensive, no-first-use. Not engaging in arms race.

PLA modernisation not aimed to threaten others or to exert hegemony. PRC never bullied others but somebody is doing that (hinting at US?).

Wei: PRC never provides weapons aid to Russia during the Ukraine War.

Wei on Qn regarding hypersonic weapons test: no big deal, why so alarmed about a legitimate exercise of sovereignty to conduct weapons test? PLA modernisation aimed at safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

My apologies I’m unable to tweet on the Sixth Plenary Session as I’ll be hauled to another sideline meeting. I hope you’re following the live telecast of the speeches. Enjoy! 🙏🏼