Thread by @TrentTelenko

People making this claim:

"HIMARS will NOT have a decisive effect on the Donbas campaign."

...are ignorant of the logistical and precision guided munition capabilities of the platform in terms of Desired Mean Point of Impact (DMPI) serviced per combat day for a TEL**🧵
1/

https://twitter.com/melindaharing/status/1534998457001381888

** Transport Erector Launcher (TEL)

...and how Ukraine's MLRS 'ask' reflects US MLRS DMPI capabilities.

I am going to be referencing Thomas C. Theiner (@noclador) outstanding May 29, 2022 thread on MLRS technology as well as several of my own.

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1531067601006301184

2/

A Smerch TEL - be it 220mm or 300mm - takes an hour to reload from its reload vehicle.

Then the reload vehicle has to reload before the next TEL can be reloaded.

This means a Smerch battery is going to be reloading every 4 hours after the 1st volley.

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1517323390666870792

3/

In a 24 hour combat day a Smerch battery will be able to engage seven DMPI because it is an inaccurate area weapon system.

This video of a Syrian MLRS firing on Dinesh positions close to Sirmaniyah near the Latakia/Idlib border gives you the visuals.
4/

The M142 HIMARS & M270 MLRS TEL can reload six and 12 rockets respectively in 5-minutes without a seperate reload vehicle.

This is a 12-to-1 reload time advantage per individual Smerch TEL plus reload vehicle combination.
5/

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1517323381326102530

Because you do not need a reload vehicle. The individual M142/M270 reload/fire rates and battery fire rates are the same.

In a permissive counter battery environment with sufficient rocket pods, a M142/M270 can fire four time an hour.

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1517323396362772480

6/

This is a 16 fold advantage in M142/M270 TEL battery salvos compared to BM-27 or BM-30 Smerch battery salvos.

For the purposes of comparison, I am going to assume six each Ukrainian M777 guns & trucks are a target counting as 12 DMPI & get 100% destroyed by a six TEL
7/

Smerch battery area volley. So a single Smerch TEL gets two "DMPI" every 4 hours.

A M142 HIMARS carries six GMLRS which can be aimed at six different DMPI in a volley.

In 4 hours a M142 TEL shoots 16 times at up to six DMPI per volley. That is 96 DMPI in four hours.
8/

That is a 48 to 1 DMPI engagement advantage in favor of the HIMARS.

What this means in target effects can be seen in a video on the GMLRS Alternative Warhead presented by U.S. Army Col. Gary Stephens, Precision Fires Rocket and Missile Systems Project Manager at the

9/

National Defense Industry Association's 2015 Precision Strike Annual Review (PSAR-15).

The video has a driving rock beat and lots of weapon impact test clips from the M31-Alternate Warhead GMLRS rocket with tungsten ball fragmentation.
10/

The M31-Unitary in Iraq had hit rates of over 90%, see this video for GMLRS 'danger close' use:

"M2 25mm gun, M1 120mm HEAT round and GMLRS 227mm all take shots at a sniper position at COP Falcon.
B 1-37 AR, Iraq, 2006."
11/

Since Donbas is a high intensity combat environment with a huge risk of attrition losses.

Let's assume only 16 launchers for a HIMARS in a 24 hour period

One HIMARS TEL will go through 32 six round GMLRS pods in a day. That is 192 GMLRS precision DMPI strikes.

12/

One HIMARS TEL, shooting GMLRS at 90% accuracy, yields 173 targets destroyed

_IN_

_A_

_DAY_

13/

The USA is sending four M142 TEL and the UK is sending four M270 TEL.

Given 16 volleys a day, these eight TEL will empty 384 GMLRS pods in a 24 hour period.

That is 2304 GMLRS rockets a day at as many DMPI.

At 90% accuracy thats 2074 DMPI "serviced.'
14/

For the purposes of "Reality check," let us assume the Ukrainians can only deliver half as many GMLRS pods a day and it takes three rocket hits to destroy a target. That is take that 2074 DMPI serviced number and divide by six.

This yields 346 destroyed targets in a day.
15/

If those 346 targets Russian guns and rocket TEL. Look at this @noclador map of the GMLRS footprint in the Donbas and work out the implications.

Those 8 GMLRS TEL can crush the Russian artillery supporting the Izyum, Popasna & Severodonetsk thrusts
16/

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1531067838206726144

...simultaneously the first day they start shooting by killing 115 Russian artillery guns & Rocket TEL on each Russian axis of advance.

And given the reality of Ukrainian Drone coverage & it's "GIS Arta" C3I app. This is a realistic performance level
17/

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1523791050313433088

...to expect from the Ukrainian Army.

In my view based on the receipts I've just laid out.

The people who wrote that Atlantic Council article are arrogant, ignorant, innumerate and utterly silly.

18/End