Now that the Israel report is out on paeds hepatitis, we're already seeing push back from various scientists/public health officials who have either played a role in pushing the Adv narrative/minimised impact of SARS-CoV-2 on kids. Here're some of the most inspired takes:-
1. The 'but is the Israel study really sound?' takes:
-'they had small numbers. UK have more patients' (no points for guessing why...)
-'yes, all the patients developed hepatitis after COVID & had no evidence of any other virus - but there are no controls so not a rigorous study'
2. The 'Is the Israel study really relevant to us?' takes
-'they didn't have excess hepatitis cases like we do, so it's not the same thing' (again, no points for guessing why we have 'excess cases' of hepatitis in children)
'Cases are from 2021- so not relevant to us now'...
yes, that's because that's one of the key periods Israel had high infection in children (although still lower than we did in 2022). And they have excellent surveillance, as we've seen from their previous reports on vaccines.
3. The 'but it's nothing new' takes
'there's nothing new about this- it's just MIS-C' (this is true, there is nothing novel about this. Other countries had reported hepatitis dominant MIS-C already. So *why* did we consider adenovirus, when we knew this happens with SARS-CoV-2!)'
4. The 'but even if it's covid, it's still pretty rare' takes
'We accept a level of fulminant hepatitis in children, so what's a few more cases of MIS-C?'
I think I've covered most of what I've seen today, but please feel free to add any I may have missed! I'm sure we'll see more moving forward.
Yes, I forgot this one- thanks for pointing out!
The 'but almost all kids are already infected, so serology is useless' takes (it isn't useless- the April UKHSA report showed ~47% positivity in under 5s- this is expected to be higher now- but not at 100%)
Under 5 comparisons are the most relevant, and the UK recent report showed (6/7) 85% acute hepatitis cases were seropositive, so pretty indicative....
There's more. Time to extend the list-
the 'most cases don't require transplant' take (yup *just* 7-10%)
the 'they got a transplant but didn't die' take (true for many, but transplants require taking immunosuppression for life & are associated with reduced survival long-term)
And then there's the rewriting history:
the 'they didn't say it was adenovirus hepatitis' take (they said it was the most plausible cause, and guidelines were to treat with cidofovir - both in the US and the UK. And they treated for this, not with steroids in most cases)
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Think it's important to challenge the claims here about the impact of masks in children on development. This isn't backed up by current evidence (except in specific circumstances e.g. hearing impairment). On the other hand educational disruption from covid does impact learning.🧵
Evidence shows that children process emotions through multiple inputs & this isn't affected by masks. Children's development and interaction doesn't appear to be affected either. Indeed, so many countries across the globe have had children 6+ wearing masks for at least a yr.
We would expect to see huge impacts in emotional cognitive development if masks had these effects. But we don't.
"There’s a lot of other cues that kids can use to parse how other people are feeling, like vocal expressions, body expressions, context,” nature.com/articles/d4158…
This is huge. We're incredibly lucky to have brave journalists with integrity like @carolecadwalla who've highlighted the risks posed to our democracy at *huge* personal cost again & again. We need to fight intimidation of journalists & support those acting in the public interest
I'm sure the journey for @carolecadwalla was incredibly difficult and traumatic here. There are power gradients even in legal systems - especially when it comes to financial costs. For most of us, having to pay £1 million for someone's legal costs would destroy our lives.
Those who bring these cases often have less at stake than those who're defending their right to speak in the public interest. Often they're people in very privileged positions who can afford it. This leads to journalists having to become more and more cautious about speaking up.
Interesting the takes from some scientists/clinicians that because most kids are exposed to SARS-CoV-2, it's meaningless to evaluate past exposure in an outbreak of acute fulminant hepatitis. Some thoughts:
It's our policies of mass infection that led to children being mass infected. Maybe it's then worth looking at evidence from other countries where this didn't happen. Israel & Austria both had fewer cases, & were able to show recent COVID-19 infection in most/all cases. How?
Excellent surveillance in kids. We never prioritised this. We limited symptom eligibility criteria, our contact tracing was done by centralised private companies with little experience, we disincentivised testing by having very low support for isolation.
post-covid hepatitis in children- report from Israel- 2 children required transplant, 3 recovered with steroids. Hard to fathom the damage the denial that COVID impacts children has done in the UK and many other countries🧵
In the UK- an implausible link with Adv was floated resulting in children treated with antivirals not steroids in many countries. People believed the UK public health and paeds community- because UK had the most cases (no points for guessing why...).
Many other countries also treated these cases as adenovirus, not post-covid auto-inflammation. Children died in the US. I don't have words. The most obvious cause was right there. It wasn't hindsight- Israel, Austria, and Italy got it right from day 1.
To anyone pointing to South Africa to suggest the impact of the omicron wave has been 'mild' or that the BA.4/5 haven't had much impact, I'd urge you to look at excess deaths. 29,500 excess deaths since Jan (omicron wave) & a peak of 1,844 excess deaths/wk during BA.4/5 wave.🧵
Data here: samrc.ac.za/sites/default/…
Thanks to @MRCza for making this available. And Debbie Bradshaw, Ria Laubscher, Rob Dorrington, Pam Groenewald, @tomtom_m for reporting on this.
Yes, impact will be much lower than before with vaccination- but we've also let cases get much higher than before in England. For example in England prevalence hasn't dropped to below 1 in 70 (1.5%) this year- it's been continuously high. Hospitalisations are increasing now.
Just a note: if you're a paediatrician/scientist suggesting 'immune debt' is a serious issue, at minimum, you will need to show that cases of a given infectious disease have *actually* increased post-pandemic. 🧵
So, let's look at this. Adenovirus 'increase' was initially linked to immune debt. But did it increase? UKHSA reports show positivity remained exactly the same- perhaps even lower than previous yrs - and it didn't die out during the pandemic. So no.
Of course, the figure that's been highlighted is this one, which doesn't control for number of tests- so absolute numbers were seen to increase, but this seems to have been due to increased testing- as positivity remained the same. Welsh data is also consistent with this.