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Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
@charles_gaba
Jun 12, 2022 • 17 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
📣📣 THREAD: Dems are facing strong headwinds in 2022, but DON'T accept defeat as inevitable.

In 2020 we saved democracy. In 2022 we need to do it again. Money isn't everything, but it's still an important tool.

Here's links to multiple fed/state races to support: 1/
1. First, we desperately need to keep the #HouseBlueIn22! I know it’s a long shot but if the GOP takes control you’ll have racist lunatics like MTG, Matt Gaetz & Lauren Boebert in charge.

This page includes races in Alabama - Minnesota; donate today! secure.actblue.com/donate/housebl…
2. This page includes races in Mississippi - Wyoming; donate today! secure.actblue.com/donate/housebl…
3. It's vitally important to not only keep the #SenateBlueIn22 to retain control of judicial appointments, but to PAD THE MAJORITY to prevent a handful of wayward Dems from continuing to throw sand in the gears of the Democratic agenda. Donate today! secure.actblue.com/donate/senateb…
4. While control of the federal government is vital, we've also learned how much power individual state executives have when it comes to public health policy and so much more. Help make #GovsBlueIn22 by donating to these races today! secure.actblue.com/donate/govblue…
5. Secretary of State has always been an important job, but the GOP's endless attempts to overturn the 2020 election and *especially* their aggressive moves to nullify U.S. democracy NOW add a new urgency to making sure it's #SOSBlueIn22. Donate today! secure.actblue.com/donate/sosblue…
6. Besides helping decide whether democracy is saved, if the Supreme Court strikes down or guts Roe vs. Wade as expected, AGs across the country will play a critical role in the fate of women who choose to control their own bodies. Donate today: secure.actblue.com/donate/agsblue…
7. REMEMBER: It's STATE LEGISLATURES which have the most control over the fate of U.S. democracy. We MUST flip control of as many state Senates / Houses as possible...& in MICHIGAN, we have a shot at both!

Help make #MIBlueIn22 by donating today! secure.actblue.com/donate/bluemi2…
8. PENNSYLVANIA is another state where Dems have a chance at flipping control of the state legislature. Again, it won't be easy but if you help out these candidates we might have a shot: #PABlueIn22 secure.actblue.com/donate/pablue22
9. I just launched my NORTH CAROLINA page; once again, the odds may be against us this year but there's still a chance at flipping at least one of the two legislative bodies. Donate today to help make #NCBlueIn22! secure.actblue.com/donate/ncblue22
10. ARIZONA is another state where Dems have a slim chance at flipping control of one of the legislative bodies. I've thrown in a bunch of other great organizations as well, but you can pick & choose which ones to donate to: secure.actblue.com/donate/azblue22
11. NEVADA currently has Democratic majorities in both the state House & Senate, but both are in danger of being lost. Help ensure that we keep #NVBlueIn22 by donating today:
secure.actblue.com/donate/nvblue22
12. OHIO has, sadly, turned red in recent years but Dems can still prevent a GOP supermajority and downballot turnout can also help flip statewide seats blue. Donate today! secure.actblue.com/donate/ohblue22
13. MINNESOTA has a split-control legislature: Republicans control the state Senate while Democrats control the state House. Either one could flip this fall. Donate today to bring both under DFL control: secure.actblue.com/donate/mnblue22
14. JUST ADDED: The GOP has known this for decades, but many Democrats seem to just now realizing how important JUDICIAL races can be. This page will let you donate directly to Dem-endorsed STATE SUPREME COURT candidates in multiple states:
secure.actblue.com/donate/statesu…
15. MISSOURI has, sadly, turned red in recent years but Dems can still prevent a GOP supermajority and downballot turnout can also help flip statewide seats blue. Donate today! secure.actblue.com/donate/moblue22
16. JUST ADDED! Like Nevada, Dems currently hold a trifecta in COLORADO, but the legislature is at risk. Help make sure we keep #COBlueIn22 by donating today: secure.actblue.com/donate/coblue22

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More from @charles_gaba

Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Nov 10
Here's an updated version of my "Dem Stop the Steal!" conspiracy theory thread which hopefully is less scattershot.

There's 3 main claims:

1. "How could there be 20M fewer voters than in 2020 w/"record-breaking turnout?"

2. "How could 15M fewer voter for Harris vs. Biden?"
3. "How could so many swing state voters vote for the Dem for Senate but not for Harris for POTUS?"

There's a few others, but these are the biggest ones, so let's tackle them first:
1. There weren't 20M fewer voters.

I've been compiling the data as it's being updated by CNN's tracking center via a Google spreadsheet. As of this writing, total POTUS turnout is ~147.6M, or ~10.8M lower than 2020's 158.4M.

cnn.com/election/2024/…

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Read 46 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Nov 8
Yesterday I posted a thread digging into the actual data behind the "20M missing votes!" and "15M fewer than Biden!" conspiracy theories being tossed around the past few days.

I've updated my spreadsheet using the latest data from CNN:
cnn.com/election/2024/…Image
Short Version:

Via CNN, as of this writing, total 2024 POTUS votes are only down 13.9 million vs. 2020...with a likely 11.5 - 12.0 million ballots still to be counted across 30 states.

Total 2024 turnout will likely be ~156M or so...just a couple million fewer than 2020.
Again, using CNN's data & estimates, once every legitimate ballot has been counted, Trump will likely have around ~78 million votes to Harris' 75-76 million.

That'd mean he added ~4 million vs 2020 while she lost ~5-6 million.

Both of these would still suck, of course.
Read 14 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Nov 3
As the guy who obsessed over precisely this data for nearly 3 years, let me address this:

My best estimate is that around 150,000 more Trump 2020 voters than Biden 2020 voters died between Nov. 2020 & Nov. 2022.

That's a lot of people. HOWEVER... 1/

acasignups.net/22/09/17/eleph…
...the vast majority of this discrepancy happened in districts/counties which were heavily red to begin with, which is why the MAGA COVID Death Cult factor only ended up making a decisive difference in exactly one statewide race: Arizona Attorney General:
acasignups.net/22/12/29/updat…
At the House district level it didn't make a decisive difference in any races at all. To understand why, let's look at two extreme examples...

acasignups.net/22/12/13/updat…
Read 10 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Oct 31
People have started asking why I'm still pushing fundraising for Dems just 5 days before Election Day. All the ad time has been purchased & the lit pieces printed & mailed out already, right?

There's several reasons: 1/
1. For state legislative races in particular, a last-minute cash infusion of even $50 can mean an extra few pizzas for tired & hungry canvassers or an extra burner phone for phone banking.

Blue24.org/state-leg
2. After the polls close, there's going to no doubt be some races which require recounts...which may or may not have to be paid for by the campaign requesting it, depending on the state and the margin. That's gonna cost money.

Blue24.org/endgame
Read 4 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Oct 31
🧵THE DEAD POOL: Since @MikeJohnson and @JDVance are promising to Concentrate folks w/pre-existing conditions into separate Camps, let's talk about that. 1/
acasignups.net/24/10/04/dead-…
Let's go back to the pre-ACA healthcare landscape. This is what it looked like in 2012...*before* the ACA's major provisions went into effect.

Half the US had employer coverage. Another third had Medicare or Medicaid. ~11M had "individual" insurance; ~48M had nothing at all. 2/ Image
The ACA had 2 main goals:

1. Reduce the number of uninsured Americans as much as possible by making coverage more affordable & accessible;

2. Provide protections from insurance industry abuses, *especially* for the individual market where the abuses were the most blatant. 3/
Read 40 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Oct 6
(sigh) OK, here we go again: Trump's Butler, PA rally crowd size.

Here's the best aerial view shot I've seen of the crowd at its peak. (the arrow shows the stage). 1/ Image
A standard dry U.S. trailer van is around 53' long. 2/
schneiderjobs.com/blog/semi-truc…
As it happens, the aerial shot shows several presumably standard trailer vans lined up neatly in a row just outside the perimeter in the lower right.

By copying & pasting one of them, it looks like the venue runs around 7 trailer vans x 4 trailer vans. 3/ Image
Read 9 tweets

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