#1 - Awesome! Quality of the experience is exceptional. I was stunned and I was expecting much less. My car drove me to Mass today, and back, Alleluia! π. The quality of perception, handling complex and uncertain situations... Waow. Best A.I.-based product I know in the world.
#2 - One may think the gap to driverless (L4-L5) is tiny. It is kind of true. It is tiny, but of abysmal depth. I continue to firmly believe the technology will never scale-out effortlessly over a fleet, for driverless services. Let me explain three reasons why:π
-2.a: Removing supervision. I will be able to do most trips without disengaging soon, but >1,000x better is required for a whole fleet driverless. Solution: mixed fleet human-driven / autonomous, in which autonomous ramps as a% of total fleet over the years.
-2.b: Mission delivery. My car drives by itself but will struggle to deal with riders and get the job done. Where to stop & pick up, driveways, problem solving in tricky situations. Many trips will generate user frustration, even abort. Solution: same as above!
-2.c: User acceptance. The most important element of the FSD experience is learning... not the model learning on Dojo, but me learning to relax while the car drives me around! Driverless-only fleets will not gain share easily. Solution: same as above!
Conclusion #1: FSD is massive, No competition on the horizon. Makes Tesla's differentiation incredibly more sustainable, for the very long run. The underlying A.I. will be monetized in multiple other ways, but the straight "switching on overnight a robotaxi fleet" doesn't work.
Conclusion #2: In order to capture the Robotaxi opportunity, Tesla needs to be smart about deployment trajectory, go to market, and partner with operators (e.g. Uber, UPS, etc.).
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