Pierre Ferragu Profile picture
Commenting on technology - no investment recommendations.
Fred Wang Profile picture starwars3422 Profile picture 3 subscribed
May 30 9 tweets 3 min read
A bear arguments on $NVDA is that hyperscalers will deploy their own chips to replace GPUs. The argument has been around for a while and doesn’t seem to materialize, beyond $GOOG and the TPU. Why? The promised thread. 1/9 👇 It is true that the TPU costs 3-4x less than a GPU, first because it is a less beefed-up chip (smaller die, less HBM), and also because Broadcom, who manufactures the TPU for Google, takes a lower margin. 2/9 Image
Apr 22 10 tweets 2 min read
I find the $TSLA controversy price cut vs. advertising spending interesting. My (strong) view: any dollar spent on advertising by Tesla today would be a waste for everybody: the company, investors, and clients. 👇 Spending on advertising is about 1) growing brand awareness (people know about your products) 2) growing perceived quality, differentiation, and relevance.
Mar 2 5 tweets 1 min read
I haven’t seen a single right take on Tesla’s announcement about silicon carbide yesterday (excepting ours, of course.) let me explain: The Silicon Carbide content of a Model 3 is ~$500. The main inverter is pure SiC. In the « Model2 », that cost is not acceptable.
Mar 2 5 tweets 1 min read
My 5 takes on $TSLA CMD:

#1 Electrified civilization is coming. It is now unstoppable.
It is a very obvious fact and I am surprised it is widely overlooked. #2 20m cars and 1TWh « as soon as possible » is $1tn in revenues, >$200bn in profits and >$5tn in market cap. IMO doable in 2030 or shortly after. There is no Robotaxi, no Optimus, no Insurance, no perception AI platform in this.
Feb 27 6 tweets 2 min read
Model 2 is critical to the continued success of $TSLA, and we should learn a lot more this week about it. Here is an overview of what we expect in 4 slides.👇 We expect Model 2 15% shorter, 30% lighter and 25% smaller battery than Model 3. We looked at how ICE compacts compare to mid-size ICE sedans and extrapolated the comparison between Model 3 and ICE mid-size sedans to reach this conclusion.
Dec 9, 2022 11 tweets 3 min read
Quick thoughts on what dragged down the $TSLA stock this year, and what to expect next, in 10 tweets. 👇 1) Must be put into context. 2/3 of it is the broader correction of long-duration growth names.
Jun 12, 2022 8 tweets 2 min read
After enjoying $TSLA #TESLA #FSDBeta, at last. My 2 impressions:👇 #1 - Awesome! Quality of the experience is exceptional. I was stunned and I was expecting much less. My car drove me to Mass today, and back, Alleluia! 😂. The quality of perception, handling complex and uncertain situations... Waow. Best A.I.-based product I know in the world.
Apr 14, 2022 6 tweets 5 min read
A short thread on accelerated computing. How $TSLA's #Dojo, $GOOG's #TPU #Cerebras's #WSE-2, #Graphcore's #IPU, and others compare to $NVDA 's #GPU. This is an extract of work we published a few weeks ago. 👇1/6 It is difficult to compare chips. Designing a chip is all about managing trade-offs between multiple dimensions. A chip has limited potential resources and the architect allocates them over these multiple dimensions. 2/6 Image
Jan 25, 2022 8 tweets 2 min read
Quick thread of $TSLA Dojo vs. $FB Meta’s RSC 👇👇👇Fun side note, as I write a note comparing architectures: Microsoft doesn’t even recognize the word exascale in its dictionary. They are running behind big time! 😂 More seriously: in a single tweet - RSC will be 5x larger than Dojo in terms of computing power, but an order of magnitude behind on through-bandwidth per transistor. Details 👇👇
Oct 25, 2021 5 tweets 1 min read
Hertz Buying 100k Tesla, my quick take: 👇 1) @ $42k per car, probably no discount, and it makes sense, why would Tesla sell at a discount while they won't be able to meet fully demand for years?
Sep 14, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
Some have asked me to be more specific. Quick thread, below. Not my area of expertise, so probably a lot of nonsense & ignorance, but my views at this point in time. In increasing order of importance and specificity; go to the bottom. for the full picture. 1) Taxing corporate is taxing everybody, competitive dynamics analysis shows tax hike gets into end-product price. Those spending more of their total income, i.e. not the richest ar hurt the most. This is govt taking more money not at all redistributing it towards the poorest.
Aug 26, 2021 7 tweets 2 min read
I have tried to figure out why $TSLA designed Dojo instead of using #Cerebras last night. I almost lost sleep on it and I don't have an answer yet. Any input welcome. Thread delow for where I stand.👇 1 - a fan out wafer of Dojo and a wafer-scale chip of Cerebras have similar transistor density (~2.5 Trillions). Dojo claims 9 PFLOPS BF16, Cerebras 2.5 PFLOPS half precision, which is about equivalent, I think. (3+X ratio between the two is fair-same as FP32/64 ratio on Ampere)
Aug 20, 2021 11 tweets 3 min read
I was pretty excited to watch $INTC 's Architecture day yesterday - very cool upcoming parts. Intel is definitely coming back…. then I watched $TSLA 's AI day… OMG... How will others compete with them on any autonomy use case? 👇Thread 1 -Tesla has created the most advanced SW architecture for perception, with recurring neural nets refining in real time and selectively their environment, with spacial and temporal queuing - exactly like we humans do. @dileeplearning @karpathy - you guys should talk!
May 21, 2021 14 tweets 4 min read
The long awaited cash return on operating asset tweetstorm: $TSLA and $TSLAQ, anyone interested in investing and evaluating the FUNDAMENTAL RIGHT TO MAKE MONEY™ of a business should read this - our research on Tesla’s profitability is in the thread as well👇👇👇👇👇0 / 11 1 - What makes a right to make money™ ? Your ability to 1) invest some money into an operating asset 2) burn some cash to operate the asset and 3) generate cash from selling the resulting product or service, in excess of cash spent on running operations.
Jan 28, 2021 6 tweets 2 min read
New narrative in the auto industry is that they have a software problem. Same as Nokia ten years ago. “We just need to invest in software to get back in the game”. Unfortunately this strategy failed; Nokia disappeared (in smartphones). Why? Thread below. $TSLA $BMWYY $DMLRY etc First, investing in software doesn’t make sense. Software is a living animal, which starts like a baby, 3 guys in a dorm, and grows a full childhood before being grown up. If you “invest in software”, you create a Frankenstein. Ugly and dangerous.