Thread by @TrentTelenko

This tweet needs some context both for what the Ukrainians are doing with the T-64BV & for understanding Ukraine's growing artillery ammunition crisis.

Ukrainian artillery thread🧵

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https://twitter.com/Tmgneff/status/1535509495790575617

For explaining the context of that Ukrainian T-64BV playing self-propelled artillery, I am going to be drawing from the following article.

According Ukr Defense Express Ukraine started the war with about 300 thousand Russian artillery
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en.defence-ua.com/analysis/how_m…

...caliber shells & was reinforced with another 225,000 Russian caliber 122mm & 152mm shells by NATO.

Ukraine has been firing at rates of up to ~5,000 shells a day compared to 60,000 shells a day by Russia.

Ukraine is over 108 days into the war.
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Not all types of Russian artillery guns are equal & the AFU has burned through most of its 152 mm shells.

This is why a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the MoD, Vadym Skibitsky, said that Ukraine has one artillery gun against 10-15 Russian ones.
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While there are East European NATO and other manufacturers of 122mm & 152mm shells. They cannot produce at rates matching Ukraine's rate of use.

This is horrid when you compare Russian & Ukrainian artillery.

Russia outnumbers Ukraine's total guns 2-to-1, with heavier guns.
5/

Worse, the 152 mm Ukrainian guns are about 60% of it's tube artillery.

While Ukraine has gotten more 155mm shells from NATO than it had 152 mm shells on 23 Feb 2022.

It has only gotten about 150 NATO 155mm gun tubes fighting ~1,000 Russian 152mm in Donbas with most of
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...Ukraine's 742 152 mm guns out of the fight from a lack of shells.

This is why AFU are complaining about is a shortage of 155mm tubes in Donbas.

This is the "10-15 x" overmatch issue.

7/

Military CinC AF of Ukraine posted the following about this situation to Facebook (link)

"I once again reiterated to General Millie my request - to help us get more 155 mm caliber artillery systems in the shortest possible time.

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facebook.com/photo/?fbid=33…

I also shared with counterpart the strategic goals of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Understanding the strategy of our armed struggle and operations will help to ensure transparency of relations with partners, clear and understandable quantitative and time
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...frames of the international technical assistance we are asking for.

We shared views on the progress of the transfer and use of weapons already provided, made comparisons with the World War II lend-lease and discussed scenarios for further development of the situation."

10/

Bottom line up front:

The AFU needs more 155mm tubes to shoot its available NATO 155mm ammo and it needs the promised HIMARS/MLRS TEL as soon as possible.

Without enough Ukrainian counter battery fire, Russia's shear weight of shells will tell.

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This is where that T-64BV comes in.

I will note that using tank (and tank destroyer guns) as artillery was an indication of relative shell shortages, as when Allied forces in Italy & France did so during the August - Nov 1944 shell distribution shortage.

And US Army
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...tanks in Korea did indirect fire missions during a shell shortage in 1951.

Historically, both times the tank guns were used as reinforcing or harassing fire and not as a replacement for traditional field artillery.
13/

According to this (link)

"The 125 mm gun fires three main types of separate loading ammunition, APFSDS with a maximum range of 2,100 m, HEAT-FS with a maximum direct fire range of 4,000 m and HE-FRAG(FS) with a maximum indirect fire range of 9,400 m."
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armyrecognition.com/russia_russian…

When you look at fig 4-10 of FM 3-09.12 - Chapter 4 Mortar & artillery coverage area (photo), a 9400m indirect fire range barely gets you out of mortar coverage range.

So this T-64BV is not a replacement for 152 mm shells.

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What the T-64BV with drone spotting seems to be doing is freeing up 122mm guns for the counter battery fight while dodging counter battery itself.

Counter battery radars - mortar or artillery - specialize in looking for high angle, energy efficient ballistic trajectories
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...far above the radar horizon, not flat trajectory, high velocity tank gun shells at mortar ranges.

And the CB radars are spaced along the battle line to maximize coverage for high angle, long range fire.

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A modern US AN/TPQ-50 light counter mortar radars, similar to some provided to Ukraine, has an electronically steered radar that can cover 360 degrees.

The problem is they too look for arcing ballistic trajectories above the radar horizon.

So shooting a 125mm HE-FRAG(FS) at
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...high velocity & low angle partially behind terrain is indeed a good way to beat many CBRs

Note as well that if the game is counter battery, a tank can sneak in much closer and egress a lot faster than a typical SPH.

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One thing the Ukrainians have proven many times in the war thus far is that they are great at tactical innovation.

Bets on a whether we see a Brimstone triple rail launcher on a T-64BV in the counter battery role next?

20/End