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David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
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Jun 13 • 22 tweets • 6 min read
Would have been easier just to have one line, saying "We withdraw from the Northern Ireland Protocol" since that is the obvious impact of this Bill. Total contempt shown for treaties and international law. publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbill…
Quick read of the legal basis for the UK government's End of Protocol Bill - with apologies for language - F**k you and international law, we're right and can do what we like gov.uk/government/pub…
No loss for words here. This is a truly disgraceful bill in which the UK government seek to rip up a treaty it entered willingly because it is having the effect it was expected to have, and the UK government instead of seeking to manage it chose to inflame
If I can suggest that Raoul is on the sympathetic end of commentators towards the UK government over Northern Ireland, and he is very sceptical...
The EU with a firm response. In private, or perhaps semi-public, expect similar from the US.

Very bad news for UK business now facing heightened risk of worsening UK-EU trade relations.
The reviews are trickling in, and they are even worse than expected...
Getting to the heart of an obviously absurd legal justification...
Entry from Dublin for the competition on who can be most entertainingly dismissive of this atrocious bill.
Serious point though - this Bill and legal justification are so far from acceptable in normal international relations, and still some in government will think it could have gone further, that you have to worry about how we go from here, there is no basis for compromise here.
More, this is not going to get better...
Impressive new entry...
Interesting on the government's legal position, using necessity. Untenable if there was a court going to rule on this.
Very important point.
So in summary, the total emasculation of a treaty willingly entered, with the excuse of imminent peril to the future of the state (which by extension therefore gives the unionist community veto power over any international treaty). Disgraceful, farcical, and damaging to the UK.
This, as well...
On consideration the worst part of today's Protocol legislation is this - for 30 years it has been bipartisan UK government practice to ensure major interventions are balanced in some way between Northern Ireland communities. Today ends that practice, being highly divisive.
Far from protecting Northern Ireland peace, today is the greatest challenge to the cross community consent underpinning it that we have seen since 1998. As such it is highly worrying where it will lead. Sadly not a shock with this government, but one with major implications.
I wonder if this Protocol Bill is itself a breach of the Good Friday Agreement in being clearly not rigorously impartial between communities in Northern Ireland?
Terse. This US administration does not want to get terribly involved in Northern Ireland but expects negotiation rather than unilateral action. Actions will follow, as they have before, if the words are not enough.
Frankly, scathing from @law_and_policy. Legal case - none.

And given the potential for serious political and economic damage resulting, it is hard to recall a more self damaging piece of proposed legislation.

davidallengreen.com/2022/06/the-ba…
Oh, and as per previous battles, such as with the EU over the level playing field, an outrageous and intransigent approach from the UK will get less from the EU than actually trying to negotiate. Because they can't be seen to yield to this. An all round calamity.
Great thread.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jun 15
The UK government plan is to use the Protocol Bill to get the DUP into the Northern Ireland government and the EU to accept the UK's interpretation of what is needed, without ever needing to pass the Bill. The first might just happen, but less likely given the second won't.
Multiple problems for the UK government's approach on Northern Ireland - virtually no trust in it from Northern Ireland or EU, a leader with a 100% track record of backing down on threats, and increasingly hardline MPs not understanding why the Protocol still exists.
Meanwhile, talk of trade wars is spooking investors and currency markets, and Northern Ireland political stability worsens with each UK government intervention. It really isn't a strong hand.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jun 15
No external body must be an impediment to glorious UK freedom, seems to be the prevailing Conservative Party ethos. Unfortunately for them, the world doesn't actually work as they hope it does, meaning such freedom equals isolation, which they don't want.
And the UK's economic performance starts to reflect that global business sees the Conservative Party as the insular party, which is of no interest to them. So the government can't actually follow through the party line. That's the problem with ideologues.
Back on one of the main problems in today's politics in many countries being a failure to understand the world as it has developed, technology enabled inter-connections, and demanding national solutions like 'bring back manufacturing' or 'leave an international body'.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jun 14
Now blogged - why not all is as it seems with the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill. For a start, one of the few government initiated bills which few actually expect to ever enter into law. And then, because the government doesn't have a clear objective. ecipe.org/blog/hidden-co…
Of course, what the UK government hopes is that the EU under the threat of the Bill immediately accepts the UK hope of no borders for our exports. But once we accept that won't happen, then what? Is the UK government objective to reform the protocol or remove it entirely? Image
So what to do if it isn't actually clear there is a possible landing zone for an agreement between the UK and EU over Northern Ireland? Delay and hope something else turns up. Don't invoke Article 16, but propose legislation with preposterous legal grounds that will take a year.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jun 14
I'm late to the party. @Usherwood and @AlexanderHorne1 already have great threads on the politics and law of the UK's Northern Ireland Protocol busting bill. Adding a little, building on the below, I suspect what we have here is a Baldrick style 'cunning plan'. But which series?
@Usherwood @AlexanderHorne1 So here was the UK government's plan before May elections in Northern Ireland. Threaten legislation to break the Protocol, as a result of which the EU would reopen their negotiating mandate and the DUP agree to serve in the NI government.
The core belief in the part of the UK government seems to be that the Northern Ireland Protocol is so obviously unreasonable that the EU will eventually have to move towards some sort of trust basis. As many have noticed, some UK and EU proposals ('green lanes') are similar.
Read 12 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jun 13
Since I'm seeing various tweets about "a remainer Brexit" or "Johnson forced to accept May's deal on Northern Ireland" let us just remind ourselves of something that never appears in these accounts, Johnson agreeing a trade deal with the EU in late 2020.

An important omission.
To recall, the Johnson government proposed clauses in the Internal Market Act which would breach the Northern Ireland Protocol. These were dropped and agreements reached with the EU on implementation and a zero tariff deal. Nobody claims these were the decisions of remainers.
So, the UK government agreed in late 2020 to implement the Protocol. While we don't know exactly why this decision was taken, we can reasonably speculate that pressure from business, particularly the car industry, plus diplomatic pressure from the US were key factors.
Read 9 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jun 13
Shall we just imagine how the UK would react if Australia just decided to 'switch off' parts of our trade agreement? Or other members of the UN decided to 'switch off' our seat on the Security Council?

Obviously treaties don't work like this.
But the key point for today - all of this trashing of a treaty / international law is a PLAN THAT HAS ALREADY FAILED. The threat of legislation was meant to get the DUP back in the Assembly and the EU with a changed mandate already. It didn't happen. Little chance it works now.
So, the Bill shows the UK doesn't respect international law, creates huge investment uncertainty given EU threat of a trade war, strains diplomatic ties with the US, might not even pass Parliament, and won't work if it does.

Still, at least the ERG are happy.
Read 6 tweets

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