To be great, countries must have strong education, which is not just teaching knowledge and skills, but also strong character, civility and work ethic. (1/8)
These are typically taught in the family, schools and religious institutions. That provides a healthy respect for rules and laws, order within society, low corruption, and enables them to unite behind a common purpose and work well together. (2/8)
As they do this, they increasingly shift from producing basic products to innovating and inventing new technologies. (3/8)
For example, the Dutch rose to defeat the Habsburg empire and become superbly educated. They became so inventive that they came up with a quarter of all major inventions in the world. (4/8)
The most important of which was the invention of ships that could travel around the world to collect great riches, and the invention of capitalism as we know it today to finance those voyages. (5/8)
They, like all leading empires, enhance their thinking by being open to the best thinking in the world. (6/8)
As a result, the people in the country become more productive and more competitive in world markets, which shows up in their growing economic output and rising share of world trade. (7/8)
You can watch my free video on the Changing World Order to learn more and understand how the past can teach us about what’s happening now: #changingworldorder (8/8)
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Whatever your nature is, there are many paths that will suit you, so don’t fixate on just one. Should a particular path close, all you have to do is find another good one consistent with what you’re like. (1/4)
But most people lack the courage to confront their own weaknesses and make the hard choices that this process requires. Ultimately, it comes down to the following five decisions:
1. Don’t confuse what you wish were true with what is really true. (2/4)
2. Don’t worry about looking good—worry instead about achieving your goals.
3. Don’t overweight first-order consequences relative to second- and third-order ones. (3/4)
Over the last few years, three big things that hadn't happened in my lifetime prompted me to do the study that led me to publish Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order. (1/6)
First, countries didn't have enough money to pay their debts, even after lowering interest rates to zero. So, their central banks began printing lots of money to do so. (2/6)
Second, big internal conflicts emerged due to growing gaps in wealth and values. This showed up in political populism and polarization between the left, who want to redistribute wealth, and the right, who want to defend those holding the wealth. (3/6)
By recognizing the higher-level consequences nature optimizes for, I've come to see that people who overweight the first-order consequences of their decisions and ignore the effects of second- and subsequent-order consequences rarely reach their goals. (1/4)
This is because first-order consequences often have opposite desirabilities from second-order consequences, resulting in big mistakes in decision making. (2/4)
For example, the first-order consequences of exercise (pain and time spent) are commonly considered undesirable, while the second order consequences (better health and more attractive appearance) are desirable. (3/4)
In my own life, what I want to give to people, most importantly to people I love, is the power to deal with reality to get what they want. (1/6)
In pursuit of my goal to give them strength, I will often deny them what they “want” because that will give them the opportunity to struggle so that they can develop the strength to get what they want on their own. (2/6)
This can be difficult for people emotionally, even if they understand intellectually that having difficulties is the exercise they need to grow strong and that just giving them what they want will weaken them and ultimately lead to them needing more help. (3/6)
As I described in my book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, I feed data into a computer programmed to produce automated reports on the conditions of, and long-term prospects for, the world’s leading countries. (1/9)
I use these outputs to supplement my own thinking and other computer models I run to help me understand the world. (2/9)
In my book I showed the computerized assessment of 11 major powers and promised to share updated versions for 24 countries—those in the G20 plus others that scored as notable global powers—at least annually on economicprinciples.org. That’s what I’m now doing. (3/9)
As a global macro-investor for over 50 years, I’ve spent a lot of time studying what makes countries healthy and unhealthy, and observing how the decisions made by policymakers impact the trajectories of their countries. (1/5)
I like to quantitatively measure those forces so I can build systems for making decisions better. For that reason, I converted my learnings into measures and models that show each country’s strengths and weaknesses, or what I call their “powers.” (2/5)
I measure 18 different types of powers, in 18 different indices, which are each made up of many indicators. These power indices measure the strengths of influences such as education, innovation and technology development, the civility of the people, economic output... (3/5)