Thread by @MarkHertling

Due to the 1/6 report, 2A legislation & economic issues, details of Donbas battles & the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine are not at the forefront.

UA isn't "losing" & the action isn't stalled. It remains a slugfest in the east.

Here's a new 🧵on equipping UA. 1/21

As I said in past threads, the "new phase" of the fight (which started in early April), brought change.

-RU focus is on massing artillery, attempts at breakthrough.
-UA focus is logistics, active defense & maintaining will.

I've used this slide to describe the major shifts. 2/

In the last few days, the @nytimes, @washingtonpost, @WSJ & others have reported Ukraine's demand for more combat equipment.

UA needs support, lots of it. It's important to understand the scope of their "asks," the art of the possible & the associated logistics requirements. 3/

I'll provide some of context for all that, from a soldier's perspective & battlefield experience as a Division Commander.

Some of what I say will be met with "they know more than you on what they need."

So please understand I'm just giving my perspective. 4/

Many reports today said the west is "lagging" & "indecisive" in providing equipment.

Those reports also say Ukraine needs nations to provide 1000 howitzers, 300 MLRS, 500 tanks, 2000 armored vehicles.

I'd offer some context for those requests. 5/

Let's talk artillery.

There are 10 active US Army Divisions. Depending on the "type" division (Armored, Infantry, Airborne, Air Assault, Light), each one is equipped differently.

Each has a Division Artillery Brigade -called a "DIVARTY"- which normally has 3 Battalions. 6/

During combat, each artillery battalion in DIVARTY isattached to the 3 combat brigades of the Division.

Each of those arty battalions has between 16-24 howitzers (either self-propelled M109A7 or towed M777) & usually 9 different "types" of rocket artillery (MLRS or HIMARS). 7/

To make it easy for math purposes, let's round up and say each Division has 24 howitzers & 9 rocket systems.

That's a TOTAL of 240 howitzers & 90 rocket systems in all ten of the active US Army Divisions .

That's an indicator of the scope of the UA "asks." 8/

The US provided 108 M777 to UA a few weeks ago, the equivalent of almost 5 artillery battalions. Those came with 200,000 rounds of ammunition.

The US also sent 4 HIMARS as a proof of principle. There will likely be more of those in the next tranche. 9/

NATO countries are also sending cannons & ammunition, some w/ different chassis, fire control systems, training requirements.

They wont match RU guns 1:1, as western militaries have other methods to counter the RU artillery threat. (That is hard to explain in a thread). 10/

Part of the "ask" that is required but usually not discussed in the requirement for support for all this equipment. Parts, mechanics, maintenance, etc.

That comes from elsewhere.

Along with a "DIVARTY," each US Division also has a Division Support Command, or "DISCOM." 11/

The DISCOM is a very large organization w/ mechanics, part suppliers & parts, truck drivers, fuelers, equipment handlers & all other things that are part of supply chain operations.

That DISCOM "supports the supporters" that exists internally to each battalion/brigade. 12/

What these soldiers do is ensure each piece of high-tech equipment continues to work, is supplied with ammo/fuel/spare parts/electronics.

When delivering cannons...there's requirements to deliver all the "stuff."

There's more supporters than trigger pullers in a US Division.13/

It's relatively easy to train soldiers to operate cannons. But there's also the need for EXTENSIVE training of mechanics, suppliers, & other supporters.

And...you must ensure the supply chain (including the route for all this to take place) operates smoothly. 14/

It's an estimated 400 miles from Ukraine's western border to Kyiv...another 200+ from Kyiv to the front lines.

The military calls that a "line of communications" or LOC. Keeping LOCs secure & open in combat is tough work, but it's required. 15/

Add to this, the different kind of equipment Ukraine is requesting is coming from a variety of NATO and non-NATO nations.

Not all of it is the same. That exacerbates parts & maintenance requirements. This compounds supply chain & LOC challenges. 16/

In this thread, we've talked just artillery.

Now multiply cannon issues to fielding new & technologically advanced tanks, infantry vehicles, aviation, etc.

In effect, UA is wanting to field a new army, w/ western equipment, w/unfamiliar processes, while fighting a war. 17/

As a division commander in combat, I fielded several weapons systems -some complicated, some not- during a 15-month deployment.

The easy fieldings took weeks...hard ones took longer. Units are pulled off line & trained. Mechanics learn their stuff. Supplies are restocked. 18/

And I had the advantage of a great DISCOM, practiced processes, secured supply lines, soldiers that knew what they were getting, the ability to pull folks offline and replace them with others while equipment was fielded.

UA has none of that. 19/

Make no mistake, UKR requires support from the US & NATO.

The courage & tenacity UA has shown is exemplary & they are fighting for all of us.

UA will win, but it will be a tough fight.

And...supporters ought understand the dynamics of what they're facing. 20/

Sorry if this thread has pissed anyone off, but these are the challenges associated with transforming and modernizing an army...and it requires more than just people saying "give them everything they need." 21/21

Correction, not 240 but 720. I had a math brain cramp. Please correct that math.