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lhsingapura Profile picture
@lhsingapura
Jun 14, 2022 • 20 tweets • 9 min read • Read on X
1. DPP punches Taiwan’s military in the face, again. The level of Taiwanese stupidity is just incredible.

2. I have no respect for Chiu Kuo-cheng, Taiwan’s defense minister & You Si Kun, President of Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan. DPP’s sole expertise is punching other Taiwanese.
3. For every surface to surface missile Taiwan makes per year, China makes at least 10 to 50. It’s just not credible for You Si Kun to threaten China — the PLA is also out building Taiwan in anti-missile missiles (to shoot down Taiwanese surface to surface missiles).
4. Taiwan is ready for American sons & daughters to die fighting for them; while planning to escape from conflict should any arise. For years, they have been opening bank accounts around the world to transfer assets & cash out of Taiwan, should the need arise.
5. I have another longer thread that discusses the grossly inadequate Taiwanese efforts at funding their own island defense. Feel free to have a look at the details.
6. Tsai Ing-wen must demonstrate awareness that war requires the commitment of all national resources. War is not a military undertaking but one that demands the commitment of every citizen & resource available. Below, pics of Taipei treating war talk as cosplay. ImageImage
7. Taiwan’s MND released a 28 pg civil defense handbook (w QR codes) to guide the public in nationwide emergencies & military conflict, to be better prepared. But their bomb shelters don’t have blast doors & lack equipping. See a SG bomb shelter pix below. Image
8. The ground reality is that the poorly trained Taiwanese conscript is untrained in combined arms warfare & highly unmotivated to fight — Taipei is Kabul on steroids. Photos of Taiwanese reserve training are no better than attending a cosplay convention — it is not real. ImageImageImage
9. Andrew Erickson shares 8 points on the defence of Taiwan; it is worth a read on the areas needing improvement.
10. Likewise Paul Huang has done excellent work that shows the actual dilapidated state of Taiwan’s military reserves. Ground truths that are often ignored by those competing to be more ignorant on Twitter. Hopefully, in time, we can have more realistic discussions here.
11. Prime Minister Kishida’s keynote address at #SLD22 is worthy of reflection. Others more qualified than me also realise that Sec. Austin’s speech is hollow — the US is slowly losing & the peoples in the Asia-Pacific should prepare for the day to come (& not the Indo-Pacific).
12. In the 2026 to 2036 time frame, the PLA(N) is infinitely more capable than the 38,000 sailor strong ROC Navy — fortunately for Taiwan, their immediate neighbour in the 1st island chain is Japan, a very capable US ally.
13. Before the Japan–US summit in Apr 2021, Kurt Campbell requested Japan to pass a bill similar to the Taiwan Relations Act. To prevent Biden from making such a request, Japan expressed its concern about the security situation — Japan’s support for Taiwan is lukewarm.
14. Given Japan’s domestic & diplomatic challenges, the Kishida admin will have to choose a hybrid policy that is realist in nature.

15. Kishida will skilfully mix deterrence & dialogue in Tokyo’s conversations with Beijing (while leveraging on Washington’s clout).
16. The 1st of 108 M1A2Ts delivered — but too many think tanks make assessments justifying the need for high levels of spending for military deterrence but show no awareness of the need for American political reassurance, to China. IMHO, Team Biden needs to strike a balance.
17. For Paul & myself, the delivery of more American weapons, do not solve the Taiwanese military’s mindset problem. Given the PLA’s operational concept of target-centric warfare, they will think of these new M1A2Ts as just targets unless real Taiwanese reform efforts are made.
18. As a Singaporean who has been to Taiwan for our country’s unilateral military training, I am naturally concerned with latest developments. I am grateful to Taiwan for hosting the SAF since 1975 & for the medical aid given to our injured soldiers in training accidents.
19. Another American pointing out that the USN cannot be nimble enough with its current naval ship building program to meet a 2027 to 2035 threat of armed conflict.
20. The bigger issue is lack of magazine depth. Even Americans with their huge MIC are worried that it’s just not enough against the PLA — the USAF & USN is starting a new munitions line for the AIM-260 JATM by 2026, while concurrently placing orders for the AIM-120D.
21. Members of the foreign press in Taiwan, giving President Tsai & her party’s supporters a brainless pass — knowing that the ROC Army can’t even fight for 14 days, while claiming that the Taiwanese are serious about defence. ImageImage
22. Instead of TRUTHFULLY reporting on the sorry state of the ROC Army’s reserve system, they use airsoft cosplay to picture Taiwanese resolve. This is dishonest reporting on Taiwan at multiple levels by a foreigner who knows better. ImageImage

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More from @lhsingapura

lhsingapura Profile picture
Sep 27
1. War is not a soccer match to cheer for one side or the other, & this situation exists in part due to the failure of UNSC resolutions 1701 & 1559 — Hezbollah was one of the militias to be dissolved but it never happened.

2. UNIFIL forces deployed are not peacekeepers but a…

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..force with military observers. UNIFIL troops are killed by Hezbollah, to prevent them from observing the weapons being transported, stored & used in Southern Lebanon. Sadly for the Lebanese people, they are in a failed state at war against Israel — a war Hezbollah started.
3. The IDF is engaged in Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB). The have evaluated the adversary & determined the courses of action (COAs).

4. One of the COAs is a multi-step C2 strike that used HUMINT, started with 📟 & moved to wider comms devices. At this stage…
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Read 5 tweets
lhsingapura Profile picture
Jul 18
@Mazri73 1️⃣Taiwan has defendable terrain & this renders an unseen advantage. Having previously participated in multi-domain war-games, both Australia & Singapore understand how difficult an opposed landing will be for the PLA (on the 14 possible invasion sites).

2️⃣The PLA is not…
@Mazri73 ..10 feet tall, & they will not ready for war by 2027. But it is possible for the Chinese military to be ready by the 2032-2036 time period.

3️⃣In the Indo-Pacific, the US DoD will never fight alone — US allies & partners also operate VLO & STOVL aircraft, making runway denial…
@Mazri73 ..as a strategy, not viable for the the PLA Second Artillery Corps.

4️⃣China is still trapped by the JMSDF & the USN w-in the 1st & 2nd island chains, for now. You are over estimating China’s resolve, & this is as harmful as under-estimating the PLA’s emerging naval capabilities.
Read 8 tweets
lhsingapura Profile picture
Mar 7
@eddytzani97 1. As Dr Ng said, Singapore does not “…depend on another country to come to our rescue. If Singaporeans will not or cannot defend Singapore, there is no backstop. A strong SAF acts a deterrence against aggression towards us & keeps adventurism at bay.”
@eddytzani97 2. A few years ago, my son told me that based on his initial medical screening, he was ineligible to serve in a combat unit. I went with him for more medical tests to provide evidence he could serve — later, he completed 38 weeks of OCS in 2018 & is now a LTA in the reserves.
@eddytzani97 3. It is easy to fall for rage farming on social media by politicians (eg. protect Malay rights). Lies by state sponsored media is often unchallenged by its echo chamber.

4. In contrast, I took my son for interval training on my holiday with him & took him to a range, to shoot.
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Read 6 tweets
lhsingapura Profile picture
Jan 30
@ChasAHKnight 1️⃣Some counter terrorism efforts that exceed a country’s borders & territorial waters are in a legal grey zone.

Q: If Pakistan had managed to capture any of the operators in Operation Neptune Spear, would they be seen prosecuted under the laws of Pakistan?
@ChasAHKnight 2️⃣Other egs include a raid that would not be legal under local laws include the killing of Abd-al-Hadi Mahmud al-Haji Ali during an “unilateral helicopter raid” in Apr 2023 (in al-Suwaydah, Syria). If Assad could have captured US troops in this raid, he would conduct a trial.
@ChasAHKnight 3️⃣Strictly speaking, it should be the Palestinian Authority (PA) that should act to stop the use of hospitals by Hamas gunmen (in the West Bank). Instead, the PA has a play to slay policy to support terror. Doctrine of necessity applies.
Read 8 tweets
lhsingapura Profile picture
Jan 23
1. The requirements for a ‘credible defense posture’ for an US ally like the Philippines (with the EEZ disputes), is very different from that of a non-aligned nation.

2. Singapore as a non-aligned nation has no allies, in the even of an armed conflict (or an invasion), &…
..needs a defence budget of SGD17.98 billion (USD13.4 billion). Each year, Singapore invests more on defence than the defence budget of any other ASEAN country but that does not mean our posture is credible.

3. The struggle for credibility is real, as there are scenarios…
..we plan for (where deterrence has failed) & there is a need to mobilise for the bigger fight to come, or face defeat.

4. Sun Tzu wrote, “victorious warriors win 1st & then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war 1st & then seek to win.” This applies to the 1962 Sino-…
Read 6 tweets
lhsingapura Profile picture
Oct 15, 2023
1. Hamas aided by the pro-Palestinian Malaysian cyber army are doing great work to push their narrative.

2. These terrorist supporters are using a picture of an Israeli kid killed by Hamas & claiming it was a Palestinian killed in an air strike.
3. Hamas is facing an unmitigated public relations disaster. Hamas is trying to deny (or distract) from the following:

(a) 400,000 Israelis cannot go home, until the ground war is fought;

(b) Hamas is prepared & wants to fight this war, with Gaza & hostages, as human shields; &
(c) Malay social media influencers in Malaysia (& other countries) are on a suicide mission to defend terrorism.

4. The narrative battle to support terror is fought with bots, trolls & uses AI. Hamas is trying to present its gunmen as principled by broadcasting clips of…
Read 8 tweets

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