Thread by @Mij_Europe

A brief thread on EU's latest thinking on UKG's Protocol move 1/

Senior officials believe yesterday's events mark a new nadir in UK/EU's post-Brexit relationship. That's not just bc of the substance of Bill or HMG's unilateral move - but also bc of everything that's come before: IM Bill, EU's attempt to offer solutions, drama since 2016 etc 2/

No senior voice in Bxl/big EU capitals believes there's space for serious negotiation. The Bill's demands are maximalist. They offer no alternative or off ramp. The inclusion of ECJ & implicit/explicit UKG view that WA is out of date makes officials sceptical UKG wants a deal 3/

Trust is completely broken. @MarosSefcovic was trying to build a rapport with @trussliz. That goodwill has been destroyed. I understand he's told @vonderleyen he has no trust left in his UK interlocutors. This reinforces lack of trust VdL & EU capitals already have in BJ Govt 4/

So there are no conditions in place to negotiate. At the same time, EU is v keen not to escalate confrontation further - given cost of living/economic concerns but more imp, a desire to avoid further dividing Western Alliance while Putin continues to wage his war in Ukraine 5/

Hence Im told EU's calibrated response will be firm but serene. This means old & new infringement proceedings, alongside publication of multiple papers in the coming days that will explain & exemplify how EU's offer of solutions on basis of Protocol could address probs in NI 6/

.@MarosSefcovic has alway said potential of EU's October offer was not fully exhausted. These papers will demonstrate how & why they wd work for NI. This is more to consolidate EU gains in court of public opinion to contrast with UKG approach. There is no expectation of talks 7/

So Bxl/EU capitals are going to move into a holding pattern. This is partly based on principle (as above) & the belief that it's not for EU to solve Johnson’s problems - esp given they are the product of his own actions: Brexit, IM Bill, activating unionists & weaponizing NIP 8/

There's also a tactical reason to sit tight: senior officials argue EU leaders will be reluctant to afford UKG any concessions while fate of @BorisJohnson is so uncertain. Their concern is that a newly installed PM, fully beholden to Right, will then come along & ask for more 9/

One official says their strategy is to effectively let Johnson "Mijoter dans son propre jus" - cook in his own juices & let Parly dynamic run its course. They see that support for UKG hard line is fragile in Cabinet & on backbenches. This last ditch attempt of a dying regime 10/

But they're equally clear there will be econ consequences IF Bill becomes law. *So a note for MPs*: the problem for EU is not whether ministers will *use* their new discretionary powers, but whether the Bill is adopted & becomes law. That will invite a v strong EU response
ENDS