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Albert Pinto Profile picture
@70sBachchan
Jun 14, 2022 • 9 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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Buckle up. Fed is going full Inflation HAWK. 75 basis points now and again and again till stocks and housing implodes. And workers are brought back to line.

Market Winter is here. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-12…
Powell wants to crush inflation. No more running the labor market hot to let wages rise. The goal now is "to get wages down" and increase employer power.
RIP #Bidenomics
policytensor.substack.com/p/the-making-o…
that part above about Fed imposing worker discipline is not in quotes i.e Powell did not actually say that.

@jul1arock reported on that May 4 Fed presser. Her piece has some direct Powell quotes.
levernews.com/the-fed-declar…
Inflation is always and everywhere a political phenomenon. Why do ordinary people hate inflation? "The answer has to do with the moral economy of price stability." That is, the consent of the governed to elite rule. Nice @policytensor thread:
Goodbye Biden Boom. Welcome Recession. Give the people what they want - crashing incomes, crashing house and stock prices and 3 years of recession!
Fed raises rates:
House & stocks fall
Incomes fall
Unemployment increases
Dollar soars, EM currencies fall
Debt detonates in developing countries as interest payments increase
Global recession next year

There were alternatives to controlling inflation rooseveltinstitute.org/publications/r…
Fed chair Powell: "If you don't have price stability, the Economy won't work the way it's supposed to"

The Politics in the Economy @johnauthers :
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
RT @talmonsmith a majorly overlooked statement made by Fed Chair Powell during his news conference today:

"*Wages are NOT principally responsible for the inflation that we’re seeing..." emphasis mine, full transcript here:
wsj.com/articles/trans…
There should be enough domestic pushback from asset-owners (houses,stocks,bonds all getting crushed) for this Fed hiking cycle to not last long right?

Been tracking the debt detonating in developing world in this thread since March prospect.org/world/developi…

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More from @70sBachchan

Albert Pinto Profile picture
Aug 14
“The market will solve climate”

The market:
“The market will solve climate”

The market: Electricity hungry BigTech created a credits "system is akin to buying the right from a fitter colleague to say you have cycled to work, even though you arrived by a car that runs on petrol." @CamillaHodgson
ft.com/content/2d6fc3…

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“The market will solve climate”

The market: Oil Pipelines are ESG and low carbon! This giant tub of ice-cream won't make you fat because the tub is made of zero-calorie material & by athletes.
Read 9 tweets
Albert Pinto Profile picture
Aug 2
Netanyahu assassinates Haniyeh in Tehran & Hezbollah’s Shukr in Beirut. We are on cusp of regional war in Middle East. Forces are being deployed, Defences readied, Redlines of targets communicated.

Thread to track ‘response function’ of each adversary
nbcnews.com/news/world/hez…
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2/ In Israel's corner are US, UK, Egypt, Saudis, Jordan &Abraham Accord (informal milvalliance) with oil Kingdoms - UAE, Bahrain.

They have communicated to Israel that they will defend Israel if it is attacked by Iran axis but will not participate in a war initiated by Israel Image
3/ "US is expecting the anticipated Iranian attack may be similar to the barrage of ballistic missiles & drones launched against Israel on April 13...But this attack could be larger...including the possibility of a coordinated attack with Iranian proxies from multiple directions" Image
Read 22 tweets
Albert Pinto Profile picture
Jul 26
Unbelievable vibe shift in the US with Kamala Harris
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The vibe shift, on the ground, in swing state Wisconsin

" Kamala Harris electrified the crowd in her first campaign rally as presumptive Democratic nominee. "I haven’t felt anything like this in many, many years,possibly since President Obama’s first run"
therecombobulationarea.news/p/in-west-alli…
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For 2yrs, gap between sentiment & economics widen. Did Kamala end vibecession? @kylascan
"There's layers to the cake:
How people expect things to be (expectations)
How things are supposed to be (theory)
How things are (reality)"

kyla.substack.com/p/the-vibecess…
Read 6 tweets
Albert Pinto Profile picture
Jul 12
Latest @polycrisis dispatch is out. @kmac & I show just how deep the finance-ecology-geopolitics rabbit hole Hurricane Beryl goes. Sign up here:

buttondown.email/polycrisisdisp…
2/ Ecology: With super hot oceans, we are very worried about this Atlantic hurricane season. THIRTY storms are predicted plus minus 5, depending on el nino

Finance: Worry that coming devastation will shake insurance industry to the core just as 2004-5 did
phenomenalworld.org/analysis/globa…
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3/London, Zurich, Bermuda are home of reinsurance.
Insurance model rely on risks being 1 Uncorrelated 2 Calculable 3 Paid for by mkt returns elsewhere
But #globalwarming upends Insurance
It correlates risks (global!); creates catastrophic fat-tails; and crimps returns everywhere. Image
Read 4 tweets
Albert Pinto Profile picture
Jul 4
what reading one book by Brett Christophers does to a mf
‘while it is possible to prevent businesses from doing profitable things, it is impossible to make them do things they consider insufficiently profitable’. Why do all this 'market failure' nonsense
ft.com/content/b2b6fb…
Brett Chrisopher's work on Rentier Capitalism has been eyeopening. Asset Managers like Blackrock now run the roads we drive on; the pipes that supply our drinking water; the farmland that provides our food; electricity & heat. Nice profile

@ddhitchens
compactmag.com/article/how-as…
Under capitalism, profit expectations drive companies’ invstmt decisions. Building solar/wind & selling the electricity they generate, however, generally is not a very profitable business What sort of returns do investors earn, asks Brett Christophers time.com/6958606/climat…
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Read 9 tweets
Albert Pinto Profile picture
Jun 4
Yes, BJP still sets the terms in the Indian parliament. But it will not have the decisive electoral majority of 2019-2024 lok sabha where it ran bills with zero opposition or consultation. After this election it will have to respect India’s opposition and democracy
India's stock market slides. Their logic?
BJP not winning in a landslide -> forced to have a NDA coalition government that will inevitably have to be more pro-welfare
--> hence the BJP cannot do nakedly pro-rich liberal reforms --> Oops, sell sell sell

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Adani's reversal tells you everything.
"In 9yrs of Modi’s tenure, Adani’s wealth grew from $8bn to $137bn. In 2022 alone, he made $72bn, which is more than the combined earnings of the world’s next 9 billionaires" ht @AnnPettifor

theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

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Read 42 tweets

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