Thread by @KesariDhwaj

[Tour of Duty]
- Discussion and analysis on this important change int he manpower policy of the armed forces.

I'll hold my tongue on this TOD for now but I'll say this -
- Move towards creation of All India, All Class Infantry Regiments is a welcome development.
- While the Regiment system will remain, the composition of troops will be change to reflect all India character of the Army +

+
- This change is important because (a) you want to draw amongst the best talent available (b) It helps to mitigate against fissiparous tendencies.
- You don't want repeat of 1984 when some Battalions of Sikh Regiment and recruits at its training center mutinied and had to +

+ contained by other army units. Through violence.
- And it is not as if this is being done for the first time.
- From what I remember, the army itself has proposed in early 90s an action plan to move from Single Class Regiments to All India, All Class Regiments.
+

- Just for reference, Infantry Regiments fall into these four categories:
1) Single Class - It has men only from one class. Example, Sikh, Sikh Light Infantry, Dogra, Garhwal Rifles.
2) Fixed Class - Multiple classes but a Rifle Company has only ONE class. For eg one Company +

+ each of Rajputs, Ahirs, Gujjars or Dogras. Example - Rajputana Rifles, Grenadiers etc.
3) Mixed Class: Same as Fixed Class but with a difference that intermixing happens at sub-unit of Rifle Company level as well. Example: Punjab Regiment.
4) All India, All Class: Recruits +

+ manpower from all over India, and these serve together in mixed sub-units. Example, Mahar Regiment, and The Brigade of the Guards and Parachute Regiment.
---
- Having said that, it will have to be a gradual process because you cannot temper with cohesion of existing battalions+

+ and this needs to be seeded carefully.
- So far, the best critique of the system that I've come across is by Lt General Shankar @palepurshankar, ex-DG Artillery.
- He raises some very pertinent point.
- Please go through this fantastic analysis +
gunnersshot.com/2022/06/tour-o…

- Rather than offer open ended statements, he's done a thorough analysis of some key points which are very well worth considering.

The devil is in the detail!
- This is a very imp point which in my opinion, addresses a key concern that I have and has been captured so well by LTG Shankar @palepurshankar in his paper i.e. experienced soldiers and NCOs.
- Need to wait for more details.

https://twitter.com/shreyadhoundial/status/1536673914213912581?s=20&t=pTwgUa01fRm-diau_DZ46Q

Rashtriya Rifles as Paramilitary Force and TOD
- This is just a thought.
- CRPF is jack of all trades. One day they could be manning election booths, and next day be combating Naxals.
- Except for COBRA battalions of CRPF, they've been found wanting in small team tactics in +

+ anti-Naxal ops, primarily because of lack of training and orientation.
- It was because we lacked a suitable resource to tackle insurgency and militancy in J&K, IA came up with the concept of Rashtriya Rifles (RR).
- I remember there were even talks about inducting army into +

+ anti-Naxal ops in late 90s or early 2000s.
- But RR is technically a temporary set-up and manned completely by the army (though, funded through Home Ministry).
- What if RR could be converted into a full-time force on the lines of Assam Rifles to create a force which can deal +

+ with most issues w/o calling in the army?
- For a country of our size and myriad challenges, we can have a central reserve of about 100 battalions or 100,000 - 120,000 men.
- RR becomes the proverbial tip of the spear when it comes to dealing with internal disturbances.
+

+ The core of this force can come from ex-TOD soldiers along with lateral absorption for NCOs, JCOs and Short Service Commission (SSC) Officers.
- Officers & NCOs/JCOs can even be deputed like Assam Rifles.

+ Tenure of service could be till the age of 40 with NPS.
- You can create space for such a force by reducing the corresponding number of battalions in CRPF and SSB which have been raised in the first place considering internal security commitments.
- RR in J&K could continue +

+ with present set-up (all army) and later, option can be explored to fold it into new RR force.
- Such a force will have close relation and coordination with the army and other Services because of its origin.

GOI trying to marry incentives across the board to TOD scheme. Here is a notification from IGNOU:
"Education Ministry to recognize in-service training received by Agniveers as credits for graduation"
- In-service training to count for 50% credit
pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIf…

Then we've the statement from the HM stating that preference will be given for ex-TOD soldiers for recruitment into CAPF.
thehindu.com/news/national/…

The impact of TOD scheme on pension bill will be visible after at least a decade. Even here, TOD will only ensure rate of increase in pension amount is reduced because even now, 25% strength will be pension eligible. GOI has taken a long term decision here.
#Agniveer

Here's a thought - give 10% weightage in selection criteria for State & Central Government jobs for #AgnipathScheme.

Takeaway from @rajatpTOI article on TOD:
- Gradual increase in induction of soldiers under TOD.
- Recruitment to scale-up over 10 years from 40K in 2022 to 1.6L by 2022-23.
- Which means, no drastic change in the army's set-up.
- By 2026, first cycle of #Agniveer inductees+

+ will be up for release/further selection.
- This means all three Services will have ample time to evaluate the impact of the scheme, performance of soldiers and take corrective actions.
- In fact, the first set of litigations from disaffected soldiers will also become visible +

- This is an imp & confusing part:
"The aim is to eventually have regular cadre soldiers (erstwhile Agniveers) and Agniveers (on a four-year tenure) in a 50:50 ratio".
- If retain to release ratio is 25:75, then after the entire current lot of soldiers recruited prior to +

+ TOD scheme retires, regular to #Agniveer ratio will also be 25:75.
- 50:50 ratio will most likely happen by 2032-33 when recruitment under TOD reaches it peak but apart from 25% retained soldiers, their will be those full-time soldiers as well who were recruited prior to TOD +

+ Last soldiers recruited in pre-TOD regime (2019) will complete color service (15 years) by 2034.
- These will be Jawans and Lance Naiks who don't become NCOs (Naik).
- The 2019 inductees will gradually keep on declining with senior most soldiers retiring after 25-30 years of +

+ service (senior JCO) in 2044-2049 period.
- So, post 2032-34 period, the ratio will start moving towards 25:75, provided the scheme is successful.
- The way I see it, while the recruitment scheme itself might be a drastic departure from earlier times, the changes it will +

+ cause will manifest gradually, and do not disturb the existing structure and working of the armed forces drastically.
- At the expense of repeating myself, Services will have ample time to revaluate and tweak the system.
Link to TOI article:
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/agniveer…

Another balanced take by Lt General Panag @rwac48 on the #Agniveer scheme with added suggestion to make it more attractive. Do read.
theprint.in/opinion/agnipa…

Government increases upper age for recruitment till 23 years as one time exception to cater for zero recruitment due to COVID.
(screenshot: @rajatpTOI)

Punjab, Rajasthan, Haryana, Himachal, Uttarakhand, Maharashtra - the biggest contributors to the army have seen minimal to no agitation. UP, the biggest contributor has also seen relatively much lower agitation. Main news is from Bihar, WB and Telangana.
#AgnipathScheme

While there is no doubt that many a youth might be unhappy with the new #AgnipathScheme, and some might resort to violence as well but this large scale arson and agitation is simply other political parties using it as a tool to show BJP in bad-light.

#AgnipathRecruitmentScheme - A lesson to all the three Services. If you don't act on your own and set your house in order, then someone will do it for you, whether you like it or not.

Two things I would change in current #AgnipathScheme:
1) On loss of life:
- The soldier's family should be given liberal pension for life.
- Medical facility should be extended for life to parents and wife & kids, if any.
2) Disability:
- Liberal pension for life.
- Access to +

+ medical facilities to the disabled soldier for life.
- The number of soldiers lost per annum due to various causes is around 1,500-1,600.
- While 200-300 are disabled.
- This number won't make a dent in the nation's coffers but go a long way in providing phycological support +

+ to a soldier that his family, or himself, will be taken care by the nation should such a drastic situation arise.
- It would break my heart to see a disabled soldier running pillar to post in government or private hospitals, trying to get medical care.

10% RESERVATION in CAPF and Assam Rifles for #Agniveers. Along with age relaxation of 3-years; for the first batch, it will be 5-years (this I think takes care of 3-year COVID period).
----
- So, 25% + 10% will now have permanent employment.
- In fact, given that CAPF personnel+

+ retire at 60 as compared to 15 years in the army (if you don't proceed beyond Sipahi/Lance Naik), you never know, some might fancy their chances more with CAPF than continue within the Services.
- However, you get pension in the Services while CAPF are on contributory NPS.
+

+ So, slowly you're getting more tweaks to the scheme. Good. Expect a few more at least. Rest might follow when the scheme is under implementation and if the Services see the need for change(s).

- Of all the arguments against #Agniveer scheme, the ones given here about retaining the old, class composition of the army (mainly infantry, and some units of armored, artillery and even AD) are the worst.
- Funny thing is, the army itself recognized the need for moving towards+

+ All India, All Class composition in 90s itself.
- An approach paper on the subject, prepared by then Adjutant General, Lt. Gen. R.V.S. Kulkarni, explicity states that:
"Growing violence, increasing communal divide and secessionist movements underline the need for an army of +

+ a truly national character''.
- In addition to the above point, there is a gross imbalance when it comes to recruitment into the army.
- As @Vedmalik1 points out in his interview, 70% of the army comes from 168 out of 775 districts of the country.
+

+ The plan in 90s for transition to All India, All Class composition was as follows:
1) Phase 1: One battalion in each Single Class regiment to be converted to Fixed Class (Multiple Classes in one battalion but grouped together as Single Class at Company level like Jat Company +

+ Rajput Company, Ahir Company etc.)
- This was to be done over 3-5 years.
2) Phase 2: All Single Class battalions to become Fixed Class battalions over a 10-year period.
3) Phase 3: Fixed Class Battalions to become Mixed Class (Multiple Classes in fixed ratio but all mixed +

+ together; basically, no separate caste specific companies)
4) Phase 4: All India, All Class. No fixed percentage for any class.
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- So, what's happening now is something which has been envisaged for a pretty long time, since 1949.
- To say cohesion and fighting +

+ spirit will be lost is an insult to soldier of Regiments like The Brigade of the Guards (BOTG) or Mahar Regiment.
- BOTG was raised after independence as All India, All Class Regiment, and if I'm not mistaken, it has highest gallantry awards post 1947.
- And it is not as if +

+ the changes will happen overnight.
- And I think inspite of intermingling, dominant % of men in each Regiment will be from original Classes.
- Trust those who're in the uniform.
- The wisdom or military acumen does not lie only with the Veteran community.
+

- The chart below shows the share of states in army recruitment between 2016-19.
- 70% of recruits come from only 10 states with UP contributing the most numbers.
- This a function of both, people's aspiration for the army as well as higher recruitment share of certain classes.

- The map below from @indiainpixels tells you the story of people's preference for the army.
- Himachal😍 leads the pack with a staggering 402 people per million population.
- Followed by UK, J&K, Punjab, Arunachal and Haryana.

- I've deleted a previous tweet where I had concluded that 25%+10%+10% Agniveers will have permanent job opportunities.
- This is because as someone pointed out, 10% quota in CAPF, AR and MOD jobs is against vacancies, and not an absolute number.
- Sorry for the confusion.
+

+ This is the document on MOD vacancies and #agniveerRecruitmentScheme

https://twitter.com/SumitDefence/status/1538089406443114496?s=20&t=zpelXWk2GrgfOmEUTUaqcw