I've been looking for reports on the Russian dud rate, gun explosions, and slowed artillery use rates.
Ukraine says dud rates are in the range of Jane's Defence Weekly reports of Afghan War Soviet artillery with 30 to 50% duds.
3/
@dividendgrowth1 There have been a few gun barrel explosions with DNR artillery units.
As the Russians have reduced the number of active offensives from six to a one axis sometimes two.
We are seeing a focused logistical effort, but no real evidence of Russia reducing total shells used.
4/
@dividendgrowth1 Any evidence of all three happening at once -- that is higher dud rate, more Russian ammo accidents and fewer shells being used -- and we will know russia has hit it's artillery ammunition "Red Line."
5/End
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So, it looks like the Atlantic Council was right and I was wrong writing the following because they knew the utterly pathetic levels of GMLRS ammunition the Biden Administration was going to provide.
I don't have the words to express how militarily _Silly_ the Russian Air Force standoff missile strike shown in the tweet below is. So I'm going to drop some WW2 photos to calibrate your eyes to the silliness.
Russia simply has to fight here for Crimea to remain viable.
So, important reason # 1.
This development forces Russia to move forces & more importantly refocus it's artillery ammo supply chain from Donbas to Kherson or risk losing Crimea's water.
2/8
Important reason #2
Filling the Russia-to-Kherson logistical supply line for the same daily rate of shell usage as Donbas requires more shells to fill all the transport between Russia & Kherson.
3/8
I was interviewed by Dan Michaels of the Wall Street Journal about US versus Russian logistics.
The article containing some of what we talked about was published in the 14 June 2022 issue today. wsj.com/articles/the-1…
1/
The 1st of my two quotes:
Instead of the heavily mechanized logistics system used for decades by Western businesses and militaries, Russia’s military relies on bountiful conscript labor to move gear, much of it packed in unwieldy coffin-size wooden crates.
“The U.S. has
2/
built logistics like we are short of people, and Russia has done it like manpower is free,” said Trent Telenko, who spent 33 years at the Pentagon’s Defense Contract Management Agency and has studied Russian military logistics.
3/
The article claims these banks have frozen accounts to prevent withdrawals:
Yuzhou Xinminsheng Village Bank (located in Xuchang City, Henan Province)
Zhecheng Huanghuai Bank (City of Shangqui, Henan Province)
Shangcai Huimin Rural Bank (Zhumadian City, Henan Province)
2/7
New Oriental Village Bank (City of Kaifeng, Henan Province)
Huaihe River Village Bank (Bengbu City, Anhui Province)
Yixian County Village Bank (Huangshan City, Anhui Province)
3/7
Tactical helicopter transportable armored vehicle firepower will make the USMC and US Army's 82nd Airborne & 101st air assault divisions very happy. 2/8
If you add Switchblade-600 and Coyote loitering munitions to such vehicles.
The power projection implications get...interesting.