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Jun 14 • 3 tweets • 2 min read
Very good 🧵 building on @stephenWalt's recent @ForeignPolicy piece regarding Realism and 🇷🇺-🇺🇦 war.
I plan to share my thoughts on this debate very soon. #KeepRealismReal.

In the meantime, this 🧵gives a sense of what I think
As promised, my thoughts, in @ForeignAffairs, on the “Realism and 🇷🇺- 🇺🇦 War” debate.

foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukrai…

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More from @ProfPaulPoast

Paul Poast Profile picture
Jun 10
At the time, I received push-back for using the word "coup" in this 🧵.

That push-back no longer seems warranted after #January6thCommitteeHearings.
In light of that push-back, I asked students in my "Quantitative Security" course to code the event: coup or no?

They largely viewed it as meeting the criteria for a coup.

Consistent with the views of my students, the Center for Systemic Peace (who produces the above mentioned Polity scores), also now codes Jan 6 as an attempted coup (systemicpeace.org). Image
Read 5 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Jun 10
Finland is building new barriers and fencing along its border with Russia. A Maginot Line redux?

[THREAD]
The announcement of new border fortifications comes in the face of concerns over the renewed threat of Russian aggression...
...and builds on Finnish efforts that preceded Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
uawire.org/finland-consid…
Read 15 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Jun 9
A benefit of 🇹🇷 holding up 🇸🇪-🇫🇮 accession to @NATO? Time for the "hard conversations" about their membership.

How to defend them? Can NATO defend them? Is their a plan or just hope for the best?

I elaborate in this piece for @CarnegieEndow.

carnegieendowment.org/2022/06/07/wha…
Piece builds draws from my book on alliance negotiations...
amazon.com/Arguing-about-…
...and my recent @TXNatSecReview piece with Dan Reiter.
tnsr.org/2021/06/the-tr…
Read 6 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Jun 6
The 🇷🇺-🇺🇦 war could become one of the largest wars -- measured in terms of fatalities -- in history.

A short 🧵
This new @WarOnTheRocks piece from @Prof_BearB & @MZLopate makes a critical point: the size of wars is hard to manage and predict (and the 🇺🇦-🇷🇺 is already trending towards becoming one of the deadliest conflicts in history).
warontherocks.com/2022/06/wester…
There are three factors that could lead to this war become one of the largest in history.
Read 14 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Jun 5
Despite massive loses of material and manpower, failure to achieve strategic objectives, incurring economic hardship, and becoming a pariah state, Russia could still end up "winning" its war against Ukraine.

[THREAD]
Recent news from the war shows that Russia has made gains in eastern Ukraine...
nytimes.com/2022/05/27/bri…
...now controls a non-trivial amount of Ukrainian territory...
Read 30 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
May 31
The IR community didn't get Russia/Ukraine wrong.

A 🧵
First, as this 🧵from January shows, IR scholars had long seen Ukraine-Russia as THE post-Cold War flashpoint.

Second, there is the HUGE 🧵by @RnaudBertrand highlighting how various policy makers and scholars in the IR community long predicted war between Russia and Ukraine.
Read 20 tweets

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