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Sean T at RCP

@SeanTrende

Jun 15

So SC-1 is an interesting case. It's basically divvied up between Beaufort County and then three counties in the Charleston area: Charleston, Dorchester and Berkeley, with bits of other two other counties thrown in.

Most of the Democratic core of Charleston City and some of the swing-y suburbs to the west were excised from the district in the last redistricting, so this is mostly suburban/exurban/rural territory around here.

Beaufort is where Arrington probably has to blow the roof off to win this thing. So far hardly any of it is in. Berkeley is where Mace is from; she's roughly tied there but it is mostly in.

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Sean T at RCP

@SeanTrende

Nov 19, 2021

So a fun experiment in my Poli Sci 1100 class, illustrating the subtle ways you can be psychologically manipulated. Students born January-June closed their eyes. Others were shown a slide asking them to raise their hands if they though African countries made up >85% of the UN. 1/

They were then asked to write down what % of the UN was comprised of African nations. They then closed eyes, others opened and were asked to raise hands if they thought African nations made up <15% of the UN, then asked to write down what % was comprised of African nations. 2/

I then had them call out what they wrote down. Here's the results:

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Sean T at RCP

@SeanTrende

Nov 5, 2021

Hey tweeps -- I had a student in my Intro American Politics class interested in reading more about the role of the Supreme Court in deciding important questions in American life. I'm actually having a hard time coming up with stuff that might work for a pretty smart undergrad. 1/

Bickel's "Least Dangerous Branch" is obviously good on this, but I'm not sure how it reads for a non-lawyer. Bork's "Tempting of America" is probably the clearest explication of the dangers of aggressive judicial review and is readable, but is obviously pretty ideological. 2/

So what are some better ideas?

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Sean T at RCP

@SeanTrende

Nov 2, 2021

I've done these before and they are a handy way to see what the votes mean. Basically, once counties clear a certain number of votes in, this take them and compares them to 2017 results, with 4.5% taken off the 2017 results (since Northam won by 9). 1/

Above the line means TMac is on pace to exceed what is needed for 2017, below means he isn't. Of course, this doesn't account for changes in turnout. Just a useful heuristic.

McAuliffe getting crushed in small counties, but baaarely holding his own in the larger ones. Probably going to land within 2% either way, but TBD.

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Sean T at RCP

@SeanTrende

Sep 12, 2021

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1437087441521889280

I think this is clearly at least part of the story. Part of it too, I think, is that bourgeoisie morality has always been reactionary. At some point in the last 70 years, bourgeoisie morality shifted from being tasked with enforcing the norms of High Protestant churches 1/

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1437087441521889280

To enforcing the norms/outcomes of 60s/70s liberalism, without really adopting the underlying principles. Some of this too is the complementary rise of critical theory -- an express ideological challenge to liberalism -- in the academy over roughly the same time period 2/

But none of these threads/explanations are exclusive of each other, and indeed to a large extent they are complementary. 3/

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Sean T at RCP

@SeanTrende

Sep 12, 2021

I've been mulling over some of the defenses of Australia's anti-COVID regime from liberal friends, and the ACLU's defense of vaccine mandates. I can't decide if this is a one-off, or some greater shift in American liberalism. 1/

One of the foundations of the Warren/early Burger Court approach to civil liberties is that society might bear a cost of staunch protection of civil liberties, but it is worth it in the long run. 2/

So, we suppress the confession of Ernesto Miranda, knowing full well that a confessed rapist might go free. We suppress evidence from illegal searches and seizures, knowing criminals might go free. 3/

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