Gray Connolly Profile picture
Jun 15 36 tweets 15 min read
India & China are importing more Russian oil+gas & the EU zone is still importing as well: "Russia is likely to bring in $285 billion in oil and gas revenues this year—20% more than the $235.6 billion the country brought in last year."
fortune.com/2022/06/14/put…
Again: Australia's (very clean) black coal trading at a near record high. We were all told by the very same people now urging energy rationing *in winter* for Australia [which is blessed with coal, gas & uranium] that coal had no future & coal mines would be stranded assets. Image
The US Energy Secretary wants both a rapid expansion of US oil investments in extraction & refining BUT also wants to reduce these same industries in the next decade. A completely unserious clownshow

Bravo @clairlemon "...watching the European experience, we know baseload power can come only from coal, gas or nuclear energy. If our leaders do not manage this situation carefully and learn from other nations, Australians may have to prepare for an energy crisis that never ends" Image
The obvious solution in plain sight ... ⚛️🐻‍❄️ Image
No country has believed more in 'the Renewables' than Germany .... yet as Germany faces a gas crisis, esp as Russia restricts supply, Germany has realised its only real choices are Coal, Gas, or Nuclear ... and Germany has chosen .... Coal ... Brown Coal?
Germany being brutally mugged by energy reality - having idiotically sworn off nuclear, foolishly gone big into unreliable renewables, denied Russian gas, Berlin is now left with … coal … and probably dirty brown coal

See here by @RobHarris_SMH ⬇️ Image
Austria went off coal for cheap Russian gas & renewables but is now restarting a previously shuttered coal-fired power plant

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
We need 2022 versions of these

(Via @ianfarrow ) Image
#vivelafrance 🇫🇷☢️🌲🌏 Image
No one bought more into “the renewables” cult than the Germans … without Russian gas, and having foolishly sworn off nuclear, it turns out … coal is again king / Kaiser

trib.al/oXZ5p7k
Outstanding @clairlemon piece on the immense costs of 'the renewables' fantasy, economic & political: ever more expensive and unreliable energy as well as geopolitical weaknesses that are self-inflicted wounds. The only proven baseload & climate solution is Nuclear. Image
Time for our periodic check in on the 'coal has no future' mantra ... Australia is an Energy superpower and our [very clean] black coal is trading at near record recent highs ...

Again: coal, gas, nuclear ... pick your baseload Image
No one put more money into "the renewables" than the Germans ... plus anti-nuke lunacy

"Germany has responded to the cuts by reviving coal plants and providing financing to secure gas supplies, while continuing with plans to phase out nuclear energy..."

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Subtext here is not just about electric vehicles but about whether European grids (in varying states of repair/reliability) can support the massive load that charging EVs would place upon them, esp in all weathers/seasons. Reality > Fantasy

reuters.com/markets/europe…
Everything here was predictable years ago … the idiocy of European esp German energy policy of the past 20 years will be studied for decades to come.

[Australians should esp take note here re our insane fracking bans/moratoria]

trib.al/CcBe4ca
It is late June and the clock is ticking for most European states to secure energy in advance of the coming winter. The Russian energy weapon was always known about & was a sword of Damocles that the EU core thought could be always managed … ImageImage
The French are nothing if not realistic & Macron here schooling Biden on the reality of Persian Gulf producers. Biden esp choose US energy scarcity & now reaps what he sowed to placate green energy delusions

(Via @ShellenbergerMD )

Necessarily grim warnings by @JavierBlas to Europe re its disastrous energy problems - read every word here:

"European leaders should sit down at an emergency summit devoted to the energy crisis. Next month will not be too early."

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
"At the current rate of gas inflows, Germany would need 116 days to reach its target to fill 90% of storage capacity, which would mean it would take until mid-October to do so -- a time of year that households would usually start consuming more gas..."
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
"Europe is now paying a hefty price for its false sense of political security following the end of the Cold War, which left it so dependent on intermittent renewables generation and a Russian gas supply it thought it could trust."

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
All across the Western world .... driving & transporting anything by road will get more expensive. As with all energy costs, the poorest will be hardest hit.

abc.net.au/news/2022-07-0…
Biden's Admin is unserious about energy supply - buried lede⬇️

"This week's auctions are a fraction of the size of those held under former President Donald Trump ....Trump's Interior Department offered 26 million acres to drillers over four years."

reuters.com/world/us/biden…
"Since taking office, Mr. Biden has labored hard to make American fossil-fuel production more costly so green energy alternatives become more attractive. He succeeded, and the result is record prices."

wsj.com/articles/biden…
Commodities markets - especially oil, coal, gas etc - run on 'animal spirits' & price in expectations of future plenty/scarcity of supply. The message from Western Govts, esp the US, is a "scarcity" future for very costly & decades-long exploration/extraction projects Image
The lethargy and delay ... and scarcity

"The proposal comes months behind schedule to meet the legal requirements, and faces several more months of reviews before the department can offer new offshore areas for lease."

wsj.com/articles/biden…
Germany's 'green energy' revolution going well ...

'The rising costs for Co2 emissions mean further burdens for households and companies, Fahimi added. The crisis could lead to social and labor unrest, she said.'

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
EU energy "Lehman moment"?

"...benchmark Dutch front-month gas price rose more than 8% on Monday to a peak of 160 euros per megawatt hour, its highest level since March 9. The price remains below a record but is still 500% higher than this time last year"
reuters.com/world/europe/e…
Everyone agrees with Gray …☢️
Reality mugs everyone, eventually Image
Are you sovereign without your own baseload power?

If Russia did not turn Nord Stream 1 back on by July 21, “the E.U. would likely be running on empty at the end of winter,” Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, wrote in a research note

nytimes.com/2022/07/06/wor…
It is “crystal clear,” State Secretary for Mining Hans Vijlbrief said, that nuclear plants are a safer option than getting more gas from Groningen.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
If only there had been people warning of the obvious dangers of Germany & others becoming a Russian energy hostage .... Berlin's bet was it could plow money into unreliable renewables & go off nuclear because of very cheap Russian gas.
[As Belgium's JCVD would say, "wrong bet"] Image
Very good @mattjcan piece here - the EU esp bet the proverbial farm on Green energy & now its failure & RUS blackmail is causing gas & coal prices to go crazy. The irony is Australia as a fossil fuel superpower will prosper while media engage in delusions about 'the renewables'. Image
Japan's leaders teaching the West valuable Energy lessons on how wise governments plan ahead⚛️⬇️

"Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on Thursday he had asked the industry minister to have up to nine nuclear power plants operational this winter."

reuters.com/business/energ…
It was always going to end this way. Biden had made US domestic production only more difficult. Supply has to come from ‘Somewhere’ … and Somewhere has a very long memory for US Presidents who want to meddle in the Kingdom’s most intimate internal affairs … ImageImage
If only there was a reliable, 24/7, zero emissions, permanent solution to the problems of meeting first world energy demands while supporting the environment .... and which also supported STEM and national strategic goals

[via @AlexEpstein] Image

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More from @GrayConnolly

Jul 18
When did “Indigenous” become “First Nations”? Had always understood the latter to be a Canadian usage.
This is as good an explanation as I can find for “First Nations” - apparently “indigenous” is now considered “too generic” … at the same time, only ever heard of Canadians using “First Nations”, which here would suggest a derivative/copied usage

aiatsis.gov.au/explore/austra…
The Celts and Gaels generally have a not dissimilar issue with Clans and Septs vs the Scots and the Irish as “nations” when in fact there was migrations and intermarriage as anyone who has DNA blooms spanning either sides of the Irish Sea knows
Read 4 tweets
Jul 16
Supporting the Wallabies is the triumph of hope over experience but, nonetheless, as Australians, we are all behind our national XV.

#AUSvENG #Wallabies
Wallabies had a good first 30 but then made mistakes and England made us pay. Wallabies have to stop conceding stupid penalties and treasure possession. We also still do not have a reliable scrum … after almost 20 years

#AUSvENG #Wallabies
Also @wwos @StanSportRugby no one cares about the human interest stuff when the Wallabies are losing. Win a World Cup and then you can do all the touchy - feely nonsense you want.

#AUSvENG #Wallabies
Read 11 tweets
Jul 15
Wanted to thank Conway Stewart pens @BespokeBritish1 for delivery of my Winston fountain pen - a refreshingly large pen. I am aware graphophiles follow me & can strongly recommend Conway Stewart, which we have used across generations, esp if you prefer broad nibs #FountainPens Image
Only thing better than a new fountain pen is rebuilding an old pen from parts - all my years learning about gunnery, riflery & like naval trades helped me repair my late mother's 1980s Dunhill fountain pen, which writes very well again. #FountainPens Image
This ink well was made from the timber of HMAS Sydney (1), which destroyed the German raider SMS Emden in the Battle of the Cocos Islands in 1914. #fountainpens Image
Read 6 tweets
Jul 13
Conservative Party future/leadership thread.

Tories: opine your punditry/predictions here.
Small informal poll of Tory family in the UK .... a certain sense of vexation if also resignation at the mostly uninspiring field running for Conservative leader. I am sensing this is not unique to us.
Leading a Right of centre parliamentary party is hard - too many MPs today are political vagabonds who would have been as happy in the LibDems (Tom Tugendhat and Liz Truss) or who would agree much more with Keir Starmer than the average conservative voter (Penny Mordaunt).
Read 8 tweets
Jul 11
Will only add here to @pegobry 's insightful post that even if you served from day 1 in the Royal Navy/British Expeditionary Force during the Great War until the armistice in Nov 1918, at best you could get 3 medals: the 1914 Star, the British War Medal, and the Victory Medal.
Would add further to this that lurking in every western military’s thinking is the worry that everything has been dumbed down and compromised - not just for woke reasons - that the military machine is not what it was esp after 20+ years of hopeless wars amid very leadership
One reviled & one celebrated.

One fired & one rewarded by the establishment.

One a genius whose work is still studied & the other pleaded guilty. ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
Jul 10
Somehow, in less than 2 years, Joe Biden's advanced age, obvious fragility & diminished mental sharpness, went from something no media could discuss to front page news .... there is a liberal media game afoot here ... and even so, he is better than Harris
nytimes.com/2022/07/09/us/…
Not even waiting for a Democratic mid term disaster to push Biden into not running and going into the political equivalent of “managed care”
The memo has clearly gone out among the blue chekists - who boosted ‘Biden hiding in the basement’ only 2 years ago - to cut him adrift now
Read 4 tweets

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