In fact, the "Glasgow Dialogue" on loss and damage finance did not make the cut and so has not been formally part of the SBI agenda, as @ChloeFarand reported here:
The "work programme" towards a global goal on adaptation (GGA, as if there weren't enough acronyms already) did make the cut to be on the formal agenda in Bonn; some groups formally submitted their views and we even got a draft (decision) text
The draft GGA decision text draws on a paper from the African Group, but is heavily bracketed (22) & filled with options (37), meaning it's far from being agreed
At this stage, they're haggling over what to discuss in a series of workshops (!)
You can see the grab-bag of ideas being discussed in this "informal note", which is a collection of everything suggested, without any judgement on what should ultimately be included
As reported by @ClimateHome latest newsletter and shown by the "informal note", countries can't even agree on how long the "urgent" dialogue on raising ambition should last – whether one year only or all the way out to 2030 – or who should be focus
Elsewhere, the Bonn talks also included "technical expert dialogue" on climate finance, looking ahead to the new target that will replace the existing (not yet met) goal of $100bn by 2020
If you thought "Article 6" on intl carbon markets was agreed at COP26, you're right, but there's still a whole bunch of new processes to put in place before any of it can start to operate… (6.4, L)
Beyond those items, a whole load of other stuff was being discussed in Bonn, from the Global Stocktake that will show (again) how far off track we are, to the Koronivia joint work on agriculture, the WIM on loss and damage, or the forum on response measures
15/ends
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NEW: UK climate advisers now "more optimistic" net-zero goals can be met
🎯Net-zero "possible" + "good for economy"
📉CO2 halved vs 1990
📈More "credible" policies
🚘🏡EV/heat pumps soaring
But…
⚡"Critical" to cut power prices
✈️Flight CO2 "risk"
1/9
For the first time I can remember, the CCC says its progress report is "optimistic" about UK climate goals being hit. Interim chair Prof Piers Forster says he is "more optimistic" than last yr due to last govt's policies starting to deliver + changes since Labour took office
2/9
Another notable change is that the CCC seems to be getting less prescriptive…
CCC has faced (inaccurate) charges that it has, in effect, set govt policy. But it's now being clearer than ever that it only offers advice – and policy is up to govt.
IEA: Oil still on track to peak by 2030; oil for fuel to peak in 2027
"annual growth slows…to just a trickle over the next several years, with a small decline expected in 2030, based on today’s policy settings and market trends"
Here are some of the most striking charts 🧵 1/8
In recent years, global oil demand has been almost entirely driven by growth in China…
…and that party is now over
Equally, US "dominance" of rising oil supply is also a thing of the past 2/8
Since last year, the IEA has raised its oil demand outlook for the US, due to EV rollbacks etc, but it has simultaneously cut its outlook for China by the same amount
So global demand in 2030 is right where the IEA thought it would be last year 3/8
In Q1 of 2025, the clean-energy driven drop in power sector CO2 outweighed small increases in other sectors of China's economy, driving a 1.6% fall year-on-year overall
FACTCHECK: Almost all the headlines on Tony Blair / net-zero are *wildly* inaccurate
REALITY:
1️⃣Net-zero is *only way* to stop warming
2️⃣Blair calls for tech to "turbocharge our path to net-zero"
3️⃣He categorically *does not* say "net-zero is doomed to fail"
🧵 1/6
Blair says a "strategy based on either 'phasing out' fossil fuels in the short term or limiting consumption is a strategy doomed to fail"
This is logically & categorically not the same as saying "net-zero is doomed to fail"
(If you can't see why, I can't help you) 2/6
Nor does Blair say "current net-zero policies are doomed"
Because literally no govt in the world has a current net-zero policy to "phase out fossil fuels in the short term or limit consumption"
Instead, world's govts agreed at COP28 to "transition away from fossil fuels" 3/6
NEW: Official advisers CCC say UK shld cut emissions 87% by 2040
⚖️Net cost of net-zero 73% less than thought
💷Total cost to 2050 = £108bn (~£4bn/yr, 0.2% GDP)
🏡🚗H’hold energy/fuel bills to fall £1,400
🔌Electrification is key
THREAD: New UK govt contract with Drax biomass power plant
* 4-yr contract 2027-2031
* £113/MWh (2012 prices – £155 in today's money)
* Output cap of 6TWh (<2% of UK supplies, cf recent yrs 12-15TWh)
* CfD cost ~£500m/yr
* 100% of fuel must be "sustainable", up from 70% 1/5
UK govt says the contract helps security of electricity supplies, but gives Drax a "much more limited role than today" ie it's limited to run at roughly 25% of its max output
This means it's mainly going to be running when it isn't windy
Drax has had issues with existing 70% sustainable sourcing rule, but as it'll need less than half the fuel it has been buying to date, the new 100% rule looks more achievable
Notably, new contract terms allow govt to reclaim subsidy if rule not met