In 1971 when I was a young clerk on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, the United States ran out of money and defaulted on its debts. That's right, the US ran out of money. (1/6)
How? Well, back then gold was the money used in transactions between countries. Paper money, like the dollar, was like checks in a checkbook in that it had no value other than it could be exchanged for gold, which was the real money. (2/6)
At the time, the United States was spending a lot more money than it was earning by writing a lot more of these paper money checks than it had gold in the bank to exchange for them. (3/6)
As people turned these checks into the bank for gold money, the amount of gold in the US started to dwindle. (4/6)
It soon became obvious that the US couldn't keep its promises for all the existing paper money, so people holding dollars rushed to exchange them before the gold ran out. (5/6)
You can watch my free video on the Changing World Order to learn more and understand how the past can teach us about what’s happening now: #changingworldorder (6/6)
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Whatever your nature is, there are many paths that will suit you, so don’t fixate on just one. Should a particular path close, all you have to do is find another good one consistent with what you’re like. (1/4)
But most people lack the courage to confront their own weaknesses and make the hard choices that this process requires. Ultimately, it comes down to the following five decisions:
1. Don’t confuse what you wish were true with what is really true. (2/4)
2. Don’t worry about looking good—worry instead about achieving your goals.
3. Don’t overweight first-order consequences relative to second- and third-order ones. (3/4)
To be great, countries must have strong education, which is not just teaching knowledge and skills, but also strong character, civility and work ethic. (1/8)
These are typically taught in the family, schools and religious institutions. That provides a healthy respect for rules and laws, order within society, low corruption, and enables them to unite behind a common purpose and work well together. (2/8)
As they do this, they increasingly shift from producing basic products to innovating and inventing new technologies. (3/8)
Over the last few years, three big things that hadn't happened in my lifetime prompted me to do the study that led me to publish Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order. (1/6)
First, countries didn't have enough money to pay their debts, even after lowering interest rates to zero. So, their central banks began printing lots of money to do so. (2/6)
Second, big internal conflicts emerged due to growing gaps in wealth and values. This showed up in political populism and polarization between the left, who want to redistribute wealth, and the right, who want to defend those holding the wealth. (3/6)
By recognizing the higher-level consequences nature optimizes for, I've come to see that people who overweight the first-order consequences of their decisions and ignore the effects of second- and subsequent-order consequences rarely reach their goals. (1/4)
This is because first-order consequences often have opposite desirabilities from second-order consequences, resulting in big mistakes in decision making. (2/4)
For example, the first-order consequences of exercise (pain and time spent) are commonly considered undesirable, while the second order consequences (better health and more attractive appearance) are desirable. (3/4)
In my own life, what I want to give to people, most importantly to people I love, is the power to deal with reality to get what they want. (1/6)
In pursuit of my goal to give them strength, I will often deny them what they “want” because that will give them the opportunity to struggle so that they can develop the strength to get what they want on their own. (2/6)
This can be difficult for people emotionally, even if they understand intellectually that having difficulties is the exercise they need to grow strong and that just giving them what they want will weaken them and ultimately lead to them needing more help. (3/6)
As I described in my book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, I feed data into a computer programmed to produce automated reports on the conditions of, and long-term prospects for, the world’s leading countries. (1/9)
I use these outputs to supplement my own thinking and other computer models I run to help me understand the world. (2/9)
In my book I showed the computerized assessment of 11 major powers and promised to share updated versions for 24 countries—those in the G20 plus others that scored as notable global powers—at least annually on economicprinciples.org. That’s what I’m now doing. (3/9)