To dig down into our 4000 person survey on cost of living cutbacks, I go to Peterlee, Durham, for #BBCNewsSix /Ten, and hear some hard on the ground realities, on food bank donors becoming recipients, donations drying up, uncollected prescriptions
Treasury spells out publicly theres no “automaticity” between inflation & wages, expectations of public sector wage rises matching inflation are “unrealistic” and could lead to a 70s style inflationary crisis.
Pay review bodies now reporting back…
Chief Secretary, when asked if people should expect wages to match inflation:
“some of the answer to that is pay. But what we can't do is have unrealistic expectations around pay, which do in turn prolong and intensify this endless inflation problem”
When asked specifically about pub sector pay review bodies which have started to report back, & whether CPI at 9% was relevant, CST stressed their independence and decisions were for departments, but: “there isn't any automaticity, if you like between inflation and pay setting”
PRBs “need to be conscious if we ended up in a world where we are saying that all settlements, try and match inflation or indeed exceeded it, then ..we are actually creating the conditions whereby those expectations become baked in and become self fulfilling. that is the risk”
CST: “we need to be very careful to avoid, as I say, fueling an inflationary spiral in a way, which actually is to everyone's detriment, it will allow it to run away from us. that is, what the governments of the 70s failed to address & what we need to prevent occurring in 2020s.”
CST Clarke: “early signs” are “encouraging” “sensible progress being made” on pay. “a lot of workforces will see they are getting good pay offers…that's to be welcomed. Though “isn't an automatic link between what those offers are and inflation & there are good reasons for that”
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Bank of England raises base rates by 0.25% to 1.25%
Raises peak inflation forecast to 11%
Says Q2 GDP fall by 0.3%
Bank of England stops giving guidance about a series of rate rises, but says it will “act forcefully” if inflation proves persistent… seems a bit more dovish, but net net probably leaves us where we are
‘Not all excess inflation can be attributed to global events” says Bank of England…saying almost all categories of goods and services were showing elevated inflation. And that this is especially case for the UK, where core inflation is 8%, vs 3.8% in euro area, and 6.4% in US
Yesterday Lord Geidt said it was “reasonable” to say a PM issued with a fixed penalty notice “may have constituted not meeting” overarching duty “under ministerial code of complying with the law”…
Here’s what I found asking prime ministers and CEOs about chances of a UK-EU trade war re UK tearing up NI Brexit deal… while no one wants it, some preps for it are occurring, and even as played down in Brussels, not so in national capitals/ boardrooms: bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Heard from Volkswagen CEO, who told me British ambassador to Berlin had visited Wolfsburg HQ last month, and that on the trade war there was “a lot of communication going on” and said there’s a mutual interest in keeping trade open and “we will help”… German carmakers are back…
Irish PM told me at WEF that “hopefully” he wouldn’t have to even contemplate a trade war as it would be “shocking” and “unnecessary” & when pushed about whether lists of UK goods to tariff were being prepped, told me “we’re not going to get into the detail of anything like that”
“When a wage-price spiral begins, there is only one cure.
And that is to slam the brakes on rising prices with higher interest rates”…
Rates normally domain of Bank of England alone… but that wording rather prescriptive…
Also:
“we cannot fix increase in cost of living just by increasing wages to match surge in prices….
…when a country faces an inflationary problem, you can’t just pay more”
… when Gov Bailey said to me in Feb workers should not ask for excessive pay rises, No10 slapped it down
PM: “we cannot fix increase in cost of living just by increasing wages to match surge in prices.” suggests workers should expect real terms pay cuts.
Clear indications as to direction of travel on public sector pay review bodies - eg NHS - who have started to report back to Gov
This would normally be a matter for the Bank of England Financial Policy Committee, and the Prudential Regulatory Authority… & ultimately the banks. in March FPC said the rise in energy prices already represented a vulnerability for existing low income households with mortgages
At a time of rising short term base rates, expected to go further. Reverse QE expected also to push up longer term rates. fears about stagnation and recession, and a record squeeze on living standards… it would not be normal expectation of banks to extend mortgage credit risks..
Some banks do already allow some benefits to count in mortgage calcs, in addition to salaried income, if deemed stable… but persuading banks that benefit income is permanent enough to be lent against in multiples, seems to go against Govt efforts to get people off benefits…