Thread by @Mij_Europe

Hi from Paris. Who’s going to win the final round of Fr parliamentary elections on Sunday? Final projections by leading Fr pollsters suggest Macron’s centrist alliance will win the largest bloc of seats but may fall short of an absolute majority (289 seats) in the new Assembly 1/

But a warning. These seat projections have been reasonably accurate in past but are less solid than projections of nationwide shares of the popular vote in presidential elections. The 577 races can be skewed by local issues & personalities. Fr pollsters do not poll all seats 2/

It would however, take a big upset for Macron’s centrist Ensemble alliance to finish behind the Left-Green alliance Nupes on Sun. The two were neck & neck in the popular vote last w/end but Left has a smaller reservoir of potential transfers from defeated candidates this w/end 3/

The crucial battleground will be the 264 "duals" (almost half the total) where @EmmanuelMacron candidates face Left-Green candidates. A poll by Opinionway on Thursday found Macron’s alliance leading in a representative sample of these seats by 51% to 49% 4/

Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s Left alliance is hoping that a surge of new anti-Macron voters – especially young people – will prove the pollsters wrong. But none of the final polls have picked up signs of an avalanche of new voters this weekend after the record low of 47.5% last Sunday 5/

Even if the Ensemble alliance falls short of a majority, they will be hoping to come close. Macron officials reckon that they will have little problem in governing if they are a few seats shy of the 289 they need. More than 20 short will mean a permanent struggle or deadlock 6/

First is Politico Poll of Polls -an average of all recent seat projections. It sees Macron’s alliance winning a maximum of 296 seats (ie 7 more than a majority) & minimum of 257. The Left is shown with a range of 157 to 206 seats. The Far Right 23 to 46. The centre right 48-70 7/

The final individual polls give Macron a range between 255 and 305 seats. The least favourable for Macron is the Elabe poll below; 255-295 seats for  Ensemble and 150-200 for Nupes 8/

The last Ipsos poll is a little better for Macron – 265 to 305 seats 9/

Opinionway is similar: 275 to 305 seats for Macron’s alliance. The centre-point of the range gives Govt 290 seats – one more than it needs for a majority. Sun night will be v tight. It may be a couple of hours after final polls close at 8pm Fr time before the results is clear
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