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Jun 18 • 24 tweets • 9 min read
My new @ForeignAffairs piece makes the case for Realism's usefulness in understanding the 🇷🇺-🇺🇦 war & international politics generally.

It draws from a variety of my THREADS on the war, & on Realism (#KeepRealismReal).

This is a THREAD of those THREADS
foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukrai…
I've written a host of 🧵s on the 🇺🇦-🇷🇺 war specifically, but two were most relevant to this piece.
First, my 🧵 on why I disagree with Mearsheimer's views on the war's cause and why I think his earlier work (on Offensive Realism) is more useful for understanding the war.

Second, my 🧵on whether Huntington's "Clash of Civilizations" thesis offers any insight into this war: it does, but because it DID NOT predict the war.
"Clash of Civilizations is wrong" shouldn't surprise long-time followers of my account: I've written other 🧵s on the Clash of Civilization thesis (specifically, how I teach it in the classroom) and how it is not supported by the evidence
My above Mearsheimer 🧵 on the 🇷🇺-🇺🇦 war drew from other threads that I've written about his work.
One of those other threads discussed his predictions regarding post-Cold War Europe: namely, his expectation of major power war returning to the continent.
The other 🧵on Mearsheimer's work looked back at his 1990s debates over the role of international institutions in helping to stabilize Europe (focusing especially on NATO).
Those two Mearsheimer 🧵s where part of a series of 🧵s on Realist Theory in international relations. I called that series #KeepRealismReal.

That series was invaluable for shaping how I described Realism in the Foreign Affairs piece.
The first #KeepRealismReal 🧵looked at the early development of modern Realist theory in IR: it focused on the 1920s and 1930s debates on disarmament (with special emphasis on Philip Kerr and Merze Tate).
The second #KeepRealismReal 🧵 looked at the work of E.H. Carr, often viewed as a founding modern realist. As I indicate in the Foreign Affairs piece, I don't think he would have agreed with that label.
The third #KeepRealismReal 🧵 looked at a TRUE founding modern Realist: the often overlooked work of G. Lowes Dickenson.
The fourth #KeepRealismReal 🧵 turned to "Mr. Realism", Hans Morgenthau. In doing so, I showed that Realists *want* a better world, they just don't think it will happen.
To fully appreciate why Morgenthau focused on World Government, it's important to understand the prominence of that hope in the 1940s and 1950s. That's what I did in this 🧵 on Albert Einstein (yes, THAT Albert Einstein).
The fifth & sixth #KeepRealismReal 🧵s looked into the work of Kenneth Waltz.
The first Waltz 🧵 unpacked his useful -- but often misunderstood -- distinction between "international politics" and "foreign policy".
The second Waltz 🧵 went deeper into this own theory of "international politics", eventually called "Neorealism" (referred to in the FA piece as "Structural Realism").
As I explained in the seventh #KeepRealismReal 🧵, the logical consistency and validity of Waltz's theory was eventually formalized by his student, James Fearon (he was mentioned in an early draft of the FA piece, but eventually cut during editing).
Another Realist who wasn't mentioned in the piece, but about whom I wrote a well received 🧵, was Robert Jervis. His work on misperceptions and the security dilemma is critical (in my view) for understanding the 🇷🇺-🇺🇦 war.
Not all of my #KeepRealismReal 🧵s focused on individuals. Some looked into key Realist concepts, such as...
..."balancing"...
... and "offensive v defensive realism".
Speaking of "offensive v defensive realism", that shouldn't be confused with another key Realist concept: offensive v defensive WEAPONS.

Here was a 🧵on why that distinction doesn't really make sense.
I plan to continue the #KeepRealismReal series, looking at even more Realist figures.

I also plan to continue 🧵s focused on the 🇷🇺-🇺🇦 war (because, sadly, I don't see it ending soon).

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More from @ProfPaulPoast

Paul Poast Profile picture
Jun 10
At the time, I received push-back for using the word "coup" in this 🧵.

That push-back no longer seems warranted after #January6thCommitteeHearings.
In light of that push-back, I asked students in my "Quantitative Security" course to code the event: coup or no?

They largely viewed it as meeting the criteria for a coup.

Consistent with the views of my students, the Center for Systemic Peace (who produces the above mentioned Polity scores), also now codes Jan 6 as an attempted coup (systemicpeace.org). Image
Read 5 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Jun 10
Finland is building new barriers and fencing along its border with Russia. A Maginot Line redux?

[THREAD]
The announcement of new border fortifications comes in the face of concerns over the renewed threat of Russian aggression...
...and builds on Finnish efforts that preceded Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
uawire.org/finland-consid…
Read 15 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Jun 9
A benefit of 🇹🇷 holding up 🇸🇪-🇫🇮 accession to @NATO? Time for the "hard conversations" about their membership.

How to defend them? Can NATO defend them? Is their a plan or just hope for the best?

I elaborate in this piece for @CarnegieEndow.

carnegieendowment.org/2022/06/07/wha…
Piece builds draws from my book on alliance negotiations...
amazon.com/Arguing-about-…
...and my recent @TXNatSecReview piece with Dan Reiter.
tnsr.org/2021/06/the-tr…
Read 6 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Jun 6
The 🇷🇺-🇺🇦 war could become one of the largest wars -- measured in terms of fatalities -- in history.

A short 🧵
This new @WarOnTheRocks piece from @Prof_BearB & @MZLopate makes a critical point: the size of wars is hard to manage and predict (and the 🇺🇦-🇷🇺 is already trending towards becoming one of the deadliest conflicts in history).
warontherocks.com/2022/06/wester…
There are three factors that could lead to this war become one of the largest in history.
Read 14 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Jun 5
Despite massive loses of material and manpower, failure to achieve strategic objectives, incurring economic hardship, and becoming a pariah state, Russia could still end up "winning" its war against Ukraine.

[THREAD]
Recent news from the war shows that Russia has made gains in eastern Ukraine...
nytimes.com/2022/05/27/bri…
...now controls a non-trivial amount of Ukrainian territory...
Read 30 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
May 31
The IR community didn't get Russia/Ukraine wrong.

A 🧵
First, as this 🧵from January shows, IR scholars had long seen Ukraine-Russia as THE post-Cold War flashpoint.

Second, there is the HUGE 🧵by @RnaudBertrand highlighting how various policy makers and scholars in the IR community long predicted war between Russia and Ukraine.
Read 20 tweets

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