Thread by @ThreshedThought

Donbas and Kherson: a tale of two fronts

A thread (plus some GREAAAAAT maps)

Whilst everyone has been talking about the Donbas, something much more significant has been happening in the South.

The Ukrainians are mounting a counter-attack towards Kherson. This has been going on for about three weeks.

I’ll come to that in a bit, but first I want to make some assessments about why everyone is going on about Donbas.

Firstly, it is where Putin has declared his objectives to lie - taking the whole of the Donbas is the Kremlin’s recently downsized objective in this war.

Secondly, the Ukrainians have hyped it to the max and are using it as a lever to drag more weapons out of the West (“this is where the future of Ukraine will be determined” etc - if only you would give us some more rockets).

TBF I’d be doing exactly the same thing if I were them

Thirdly, there are loads of reporters there, like bees around a honeypot. They’ve been in the Donbas ever since Putin announced it as his goal

Previously they were in Kyiv, but then moved

We get a distorted view of the whole conflict, because of the density of reporters there.

Fourthly - there is a significant loss of life occurring there, both of Russian and of Ukrainian troops. Who knows how many, but maybe 150 a day each?

Understandably this drives media attention.

But as I’ve said previously - the south is where the real strategic play is - around Kherson.

Why?

Kherson was the first major settlement captured by the Russians in the early days of the war because some Ukrainians gov officials switched sides.

The Russians have held it ever since.

It’s a super important city as it is the only city on the North / West bank of the Dnipro river (which is a massive river that cuts Ukraine in half from Crimea to Kyiv). Look at this, it’s mega:

If Russia continues to hold, then it makes further operations in Ukraine easier in this war, or in any future wars.

But if the Ukrainians push them back it means the Russians don’t hold any major settlements, and they’ve lost their toe hold North and West of the Dnipro

Significantly, as well Kherson opens up the door to Crimea for the Ukrainians, and also will (with a bit more attacking) enable them to control the water supply to Crimea. That’s obviously a big deal.

So overall - Kherson is much more important militarily than what is going on in the Donbas, but Putin has decided that his objectives are the Donbas, so everyone focusses on it.

But the Ukrainian objectives are not to stop Putin taking the Donbas.

Their objectives are to kick Russian forces out of the sovereign territory of Ukraine.

Obviously to do this they don’t need to follow the same sequence of objectives that Putin has. They have decided to take advantage of Russia stripping forces out of the South (to try and make progress in the East), to try and take some real targets of strategic value in the south

So what is actually going on in the Kherson front?

Territory taken back in the last three weeks (in blue) - current front line is red - Kherson and Dnipro in orange.

NB this is more territory than the Russians have taken in the East by the way.

What else are we seeing?

Ukrainian partisan attacks against Russians and collaborators including a bomb attack today against a car carrying the Head of Kherson prison who had switched sides

https://twitter.com/canadianukrain1/status/1538221951629643776

Russian arms dumps being blown up (?three days ago) and helicopters being shot down (yesterday)

We are also seeing absolutely nuts Russian bot activity on twitter at the suggestion that Kherson is the main front and not Donbas. Some of the most intense that I’ve seen in the conflict.

Seems the Russian government wants the narrative that Ukraine is on the ropes in Donbas - because it causes people who should know better to start saying stuff like ‘Ukraine should sue for peace and give up territory’.

These people paint themselves as realists, but the Ukrainians—ultimate realists—know that concessions now will embolden Putin, or the next leader, to come and have another go.

The only option for Ukraine is complete defeat of Russia within Ukrainian borders.

They know—like the Finns do after 1941—that the only way to ensure peace from Russia is to hand them their arses on a plate.

Back to Kherson:

It’s not clear what will happen here, but it is fairly clear to me that the Ukrainians are taking advantage of Putin’s focus on the Donbas to bleed them dry there (reports of civilians being conscripted and sent to front without training), in order to ….

…to make militarily significant gains in the south.

Who knows whether the Ukrainians will make it to Kherson.

Performance so far in the war (and Russia’s) suggests that the Ukrainians will make it.

The Ukrainian government has warned civilians to leave Kherson in light of the coming assault - they know what happened to civilians in Bucha just before the Russians pulled out.

They are obviously confident of taking it.

I find it odd that the media is so fixated on Donbas - but then the media has a bias for loud things that go bang, casualties and humanitarian situations.

But this does not make for a sound analysis of strategy.

And as for weapons deliveries b’coz this is the topic du jour:

Artillery is fine and useful and will enable the Ukrainians to do counter battery fire against the Russians.

But artillery isn’t that much use I reckon in taking Kherson - why would you want to shell your own city?

This weapons delivery stuff seems ever so slightly behind the picture - if I were the Ukrainians I would be asking for armed micro drones and electronic warfare kit and counter battery radars and secure comms for partisans.

Maybe they are asking for these things under the table

I would also be asking for stuff for the next stage of the war, not this stage of the war.

If Donbas grinds to a halt into a slugfest, but Kherson opens up - then where are the vehicles for the Ukrainians to make advances?

I mean asking for artillery now, when its going to arrive in a month seems a bit stupid.

But as with most of these things, what is said in the media and reality are two different stories.

ENDS