Thread by @Taniel

First projection of French election has a shock result: Le Pen’s far-right at 80-100 seats, a historical high by far & higher than polls suggested.

And: Macron is failing to win a majority, by far, and set to have a poor night. Left strong (tho not as strong as it hoped).

First symbols of Macron's terrible night: The head of the outgoing National Assembly (≈the Speaker), a close ally, has been beaten by the Left Coalition in Britanny.

And in the north, Macron's new health minister lost by 0.2% against the far-right, French TV just announced.

Looking at this per district, what's unprecedented is to see the far-right soar to a majority of the vote in 2-way duels against the center or the left. That was always a huge barrier: They only got 8 seats in 2017.

I'm now looking at a district where they went from 19% to 52%.

This feels like the first major French election where the well-rehearsed pattern by which Le Pen's Rassemblement National is be kept at bay with a broad alliance against them has exploded entirely.

They gained such a huge amount of votes in so many places between the 2 rounds.

A lot of blame to get around, but Macron's lieutenants just spent a week coopting language of the antifascist shield by calling for a "republican front" against Left. "Playing with fire," I said. Right-leaning voters today went far-right in many districts.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1537186003613470721

In most emblematic district where we saw that strategy (a former Macronist minister calling for a "republican front" against a labor activist running for the Left Coalition Paris region, see below), a first projection says the Left's Rachel Keke has won.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1537187777237831680

Macron's bad night continues with the defeat of yet another Cabinet member, Amelie de Montchalin (who was very visible over the past week). She lost against the left opponent tonight.

Cabinet members who lose will have to resign from their position. (Macron had announced that.)

If you're confused as to who WON... no one?

Macron far, far lower than he thought 7 weeks ago, & failed at majority.

Left far higher than it cd have imagined then, & will be 2nd force, but won't govern & came to expect more.

Conservatives drop, but will be key bloc for Macron.

Most immediate question, of course, is who will govern.

There's never been anything close to this level of a hung Parliament in this regime.

Macron's party plus conservative party is *probably* > majority, so maybe informal moments of agreements, but formal coalition unlikely.

Such tight results in many districts that involved far-right (RN), here are three -- final results/counts in all.

WOW. Striking piece of info by @IpsosFrance on TV that explains tonight:

In duels between Left Coalition & far-right (RN), so where Macron's candidate was eliminated, 72% of his party's voters didn't vote. Rest went 16% left/12% RN.

Spring's anti-LePen front not reciprocated.

Earlier this week, I explained Macronist strategy of demonizing the left with the usual framing against Le Pen. I said it wasn't just terrible on merits, but also playing with fire against far-right. I had future in mind... but it happened today already.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1538594457607716874

Oof, in south of France, entire "departments" are going to send parliamentary delegations that are entirely "Rassemblement National," or close.

All in Aude & Hautes Pyrenees. Nearly all in Gard (= Nimes region) and Vaucluse (= Avignon region).

They only had 8 seats until now.

It's a confusing night, but headline for many major media sites is of course clear: Macron, the newly re-elected president, loses his majority. It's hard to see how he and his allies can able to govern in any normal way going forward.

Le Monde, Libe, L'Express, NouvelObs:

Paris is all in. The Left coalition & Macronists split 18 districts equally, 9/9. (None for conservatives & far-right.)

A very symbolic result: Both seats in the ultrarich 16th arrondissement, THE paradigmatic right-wing bastion forever, tipped from conservatives to Macron.

Two months ago, when he won re-election, no one in Macron's orbit was imagining he may get less than 290 seats (the majority). Aiming for 320-360.

The ≈240 they'll get is catastrophic for his plans, & the worst result for a president facing an immediate parliamentary election.

Likely breakdown of full new French Parliament (going off of @lemondefr) after #legislatives2022:

—Macron's camp: 249 seats (-102)
—Left: 155 (incl. 142 thru coalition Nupes) (+95)
—Right: 71 (incl. 63 for Les Republicains) (-66)
—Le Pen's RN: 89 (+81)
—Other: 13

Majority: 289.

A second pollster’s projections of how eliminated parties behaved in runoffs is a tad less dramatic than upthread — but confirms big takeaway that “republican front” against Le Pen imploded unprecedentedly, with most voters shrugging off when not involved

https://twitter.com/nicolasberrod/status/1538839504324284416?s=21&t=RAjeUiUJb4k_2w2gxgTfHQ

In a confusing election that’s as fragmented as it’s ever been, a rare clear takeaway is that Macron & much of his ambitions came crashing down to earth.

The front page of the leading center-left daily: “the smack” (/ slap)